国泰海通：津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口预期锂价偏强震荡

智通财经网02-26

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，根据SMM数据，我国2025年从津巴布韦进口锂精矿总计119万吨，折算碳酸锂产量14.88万吨，津巴布韦对全球碳酸锂供给的影响较大。若津巴布韦禁止出口的政策持续，锂矿供给端将明显收紧。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将逐步消化政策影响。碳酸锂行业供给偏紧，库存持续去化，津巴布韦禁止出口政策将使得行业基本面更趋紧张，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614738096?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260226/20260226135807_35610.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-26 13:56","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","id":"2614738096","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"国泰海通：津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口 预期锂价偏强震荡","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，根据SMM数据，我国2025年从津巴布韦进口锂精矿总计119万吨，折算碳酸锂产量14.88万吨，津巴布韦对全球碳酸锂供给的影响较大。若津巴布韦禁止出口的政策持续，锂矿供给端将明显收紧。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将逐步消化政策影响。碳酸锂行业供给偏紧，库存持续去化，津巴布韦禁止出口政策将使得行业基本面更趋紧张，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407500.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰海通：津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口 预期锂价偏强震荡</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国泰海通：津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口 预期锂价偏强震荡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-26 13:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407500.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，根据SMM数据，我国2025年从津巴布韦进口锂精矿总计119万吨，折算碳酸锂产量14.88万吨，津巴布韦对全球碳酸锂供给的影响较大。若津巴布韦禁止出口的政策持续，锂矿供给端将明显收紧。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将逐步消化政策影响。碳酸锂行业供给偏紧，库存持续去化，津巴布韦禁止出口政策将使得行业基本面更趋紧张，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407500.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0183","symbol_name":"MSCI概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407500.html","article_id":"2614738096","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260226/20260226135807_35610.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614738096","pubTimestamp":1772085416,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"碳酸锂行业供给偏紧，库存持续去化，津巴布韦禁止出口政策将使得行业基本面更趋紧张，预期锂价偏强震荡，维持行业“增持”评级。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"601211":"国泰海通","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0201":"可转债","BK0028":"国家队","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK0184":"上海国资改革","02611":"国泰海通","BK0276":"资本市场"},"translate_title":"Cathay Haitong: Zimbabwe tightens lithium concentrate exports, lithium prices are expected to be strong and volatile","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601211":1.5,"02611":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，根据SMM数据，我国2025年从津巴布韦进口锂精矿总计119万吨，折算碳酸锂产量14.88万吨，津巴布韦对全球碳酸锂供给的影响较大。若津巴布韦禁止出口的政策持续，锂矿供给端将明显收紧。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将逐步消化政策影响。碳酸锂行业供给偏紧，库存持续去化，津巴布韦禁止出口政策将使得行业基本面更趋紧张，预期锂价偏强震荡，维持行业“增持”评级。国泰海通主要观点如下：津巴布韦禁止锂精矿出口，预期对供给扰动较大根据SMM，2月25日津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口(含在途货物)，旨在加强矿产监管与问责。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。申请时需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议信，并申报矿物成分。根据SMM数据，我国2025年从津巴布韦进口锂精矿总计119万吨，折算碳酸锂产量14.88万吨，津巴布韦对全球碳酸锂供给的影响较大。若津巴布韦禁止出口的政策持续，锂矿供给端将明显收紧。政策一以贯之，供给扰动或持续根据中国商务部，津巴布韦在2022年开始禁止出口未加工的锂矿石，只允许出口锂精矿。2025年6月，津巴布韦宣布计划在2027年1月开始禁止锂精矿出口，仅允许出口附加值更高的硫酸锂。2026年1月，津巴布韦政府已经开始检查是否存在违反津禁止原矿石出口政策、非法将矿石走私出境的行为。推测这些连贯政策目标是要将锂的采、选和冶炼产业留在国内，这符合资源国的一贯做法。而本次禁止出口政策，预期也将使得津巴布韦的锂矿出口更加规范。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将逐步消化政策影响。基本面偏强，锂价震荡上行2026年1月底到2月，到SMM口径的碳酸锂库存持续5周下行，且去库的速度逐渐加快，碳酸锂基本面保持偏强运行。目前正处于春节后需求恢复的阶段，随着需求的复苏，预期碳酸锂库存将保持去化，碳酸锂价格将偏强运行。展望2026年，在储能、动力电池需求的带动下，碳酸锂需求增速较快，而供给端来看，前期江西重要矿山的扰动尚未平息，海外供给再生变化，预期2026年碳酸锂的供需将保持偏紧的格局。标的方面推荐藏格矿业(000408.SZ)、赣锋锂业(002460.SZ,01772)、天齐锂业(002466.SZ,09696)、永兴材料(002756.SZ)、雅化集团(002497.SZ)等。风险提示津巴布韦政策反复，需求端动力电池需求大幅下降。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614738096","isCrawlerRequest":true}

国泰海通：津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口 预期锂价偏强震荡

精彩评论

国泰海通：津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口预期锂价偏强震荡