债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年

华尔街见闻02-25

美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能...

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Bet on rate cut cycle extending into 2027","themeId":"4964f02c4aa879a408841ca20e0412d7","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c90b5b521b25831cf79b321bc199d35d","symbols_score_info":{"SPXU":0.6,"US7Y.BOND":2,"US30Y.BOND":2,"US2Y.BOND":2,".SPX":1.57,"US10Y.BOND":2,"YMmain":2,"OEF":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":2,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"TIP":2,".IXIC":2,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":2,"SPY":1.57,"US5Y.BOND":2,"SPYI":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"US6M.BOND":2,"USTB":2,"NQmain":2,"US12M.BOND":2,"US3Y.BOND":2},"content_text":"美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。\n与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。\n直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益升温，促使交易员重新评估这一预期。\n周二，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）警告称，若人工智能的广泛应用推高失业率，美联储可能无法完全对冲其带来的冲击。\nSOFR期权市场也呈现类似的鸽派信号。相关交易倾向于对冲今年多次降息的可能性，某些期权合约的未平仓合约数量显著增加，例如12月到期、行权价98.00的看涨期权。\n自上周末以来，SOFR利差的趋平走势明显加速。与此同时，人工智能“颠覆性冲击”的担忧打压了一批股票，并推动长期美国国债上涨。\nBrandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理Jack McIntyre表示：\n\n问题在于，人工智能究竟会不会带来通胀压力，或许收益率曲线的长端已经在提前反映这一点。AI唯一可能带来通胀的方面，是数据中心建设及其相关的能源需求，而这一点是市场已知的。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614721863","isCrawlerRequest":true}