卖掉330万颗GPU，AMD急了？

半导体行业观察02-25 09:12

你可能感觉似曾相识，但事实并非如此。AMD刚刚宣布与Meta Platforms达成的协议，与它去年10月与模型构建公司OpenAI签署的协议极其相似，从6吉瓦的数据中心总容量（涵盖计算、存储和网络）到为了促成交易而提供的1.6亿股AMD认股权证，都如出一辙。再达成八笔类似的交易，五年内十家公司将持有AMD 100%的股份。（不，这不会发生，没错，我只是开个玩笑。不过，我们希望它真的发生了……）...

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Platforms的具体支出金额，仅表示该公司将从英伟达购买数百万个“Blackwell”和“Rubin”GPU加速器的使用权。但正如我们指出的，许多人忽略了其中的细则：部分资金将用于云端容量，而非本地部署设备。我们估计，英伟达的协议涉及200万至300万个GPU，以及大量用于AI系统内外的“Vera”Arm服务器CPU，此外还包括用于GPU的NVSwitch纵向扩展网络和用于横向扩展集群的SpectrumX网络。仅GB300 NVL72等效芯片一项，就可能带来1100亿至1670亿美元的收入。 （Vera CPU集群的性能会更胜一筹，但可能还不足以产生显著影响。）Meta Platforms 的这笔投资中有多少已经在未来四五年内以账面形式投入到云计算和新云平台中，目前尚不得而知。两家公司都没有明确说明交易期限，只表示这是一项“多年期、跨世代的战略合作”。AMD 和 Meta Platforms 的说法更加精确，称该协议为期五年，从 2026 年下半年开始，届时将推出首批 1 吉瓦的系统，这些系统基于定制的 MI450 GPU 加速器和与 Meta Platforms 共同设计的“Helios”开放式机架宽 v3 机架级系统。根据所用加速器的不同，1 吉瓦的容量估计相当于 50 万到 60 万个 GPU。取中间值，那么在五年内安装的 6 吉瓦容量中，相当于 330 万个 MI400 系列 GPU。按平均单价 3.5 万美元计算，仅 GPU 的成本就高达 1155 亿美元，平均每年 231 亿美元，这与 AMD 首席执行官苏姿丰在与华尔街的电话会议上提到的“每吉瓦两位数数十亿美元”的说法相符。加上机架、网络（部分来自 AMD，例如 Pensando DPU）和存储的成本，硬件成本可能达到每吉瓦 350 亿美元，其余成本则用于设施、电力和冷却。在电话会议上，苏姿丰表示，Meta Platforms 是 AMD “Antares” MI300X 和 MI350X GPU 的早期采用者，她认为，如果没有与社交网络公司达成这样的协议，“Altair” MI450 系列在 Meta Platforms 的销量“本来会很好”。苏解释说：“但我们希望实现的是变革性的发展。五年内实现千兆瓦级的部署，达到六吉瓦，这对于我们未来的业务发展而言，无疑是变革性的。此外，他们在模型方面也处于领先地位。他们正在优化未来的工作负载，而我们也与他们同步优化。”这引出了这项交易的另一个独特之处。作为交易的一部分，Meta Platforms 将从 AMD 获得半定制的 MI450 系列 GPU，并于 2026 年下半年开始从 Helios 机架的首批发货中交付。这是 MI400 系列的首款定制产品；劳伦斯·利弗莫尔国家实验室在 MI300 系列时期获得了一款混合 CPU-GPU 芯片——“Antares-A” MI300A，它包含六个 GPU 芯片和两个 CPU 芯片。由于采用了Chiplet设计，其他客户也可能获得定制的 MI400 系列产品，前提是他们的订单量足够大，足以支撑特殊产品的生产。Meta Platforms委托定制的这款MI450X芯片的具体特性尚不清楚，但AMD首席财务官Jean Hsu表示，这款定制芯片在MI400周期内无需额外流片。我们还了解到，这款定制的MI450X芯片是针对Meta Platforms自身的推理工作负载进行优化的。因此，根据 Meta Platforms 的优化目标（例如，优化每瓦性能成本或追求极致性能），其 HBM 堆叠式显存的容量可能比标准版更多或更少，GPU 的时钟频率也可能更高或更低。如果想要在 HBM 容量和带宽与插槽固有的计算能力之间取得更好的平衡，可以考虑减少 GPU 芯片的数量，略微提高它们的运行频率，并增加 HBM 显存的容量和速度，从而在提高单位计算能力的同时，获得更高的容量和带宽，并降低计算过程中的发热量。有很多不同的方法可以尝试——尤其是在AMD像我们希望的那样，将向量核心和张量核心分别放在不同的芯片上的情况下。如果真是这样，Meta可以增加张量核心的数量，减少向量核心的数量，例如，如果这样做有助于提升其推理性能，同时还能继续使用MI450插槽。Meta Platforms 也是即将推出的“Venice” Zen 6 Epyc 9006 CPU 的早期大型采用者，并且还将大量采购未来的“Verrano” Zen 7 Epyc 9007 CPU。这些 CPU 当然将用于 Helios AI 机架，但也将被部署到 Meta Platforms 内部运行更多通用应用程序，以支持 Facebook、Instagram 和其他应用程序。首批1吉瓦产能已落实，剩余的5吉瓦产能将从现在到2030年间陆续签订合同。仅OpenAI和Meta Platforms两大业务就为AMD带来了2吉瓦的产能承诺，这意味着AMD可以与供应商签订协议，以较低的风险完成这些订单。从2027年到2030年，平均每年新增1.25吉瓦产能，每签下一批新的产能合同，都增强了AMD完成每批产能生产的信心。正如我们在之前的 OpenAI 交易分析中所指出的，假设这些认股权证的发行大致呈线性增长，并且 AMD 的股价能在 2030 年前也大致呈线性增长至 600 美元，那么到这些合同期结束时，OpenAI 和 Meta Platforms 的 1.6 亿股股票的总价值将达到约 690 亿美元。（这笔股票交易的详情已在AMD 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 8-K 文件中披露。）如果 AMD 在 AI 计算引擎和机架方面略微低于英伟达的价格（我们认为这种情况将会发生），那么这相当于约 2 吉瓦的 GPU 系统容量。这相当于用股票而非现金购买硬件，从而享受了折扣。让 AMD 的股价在五年内增长三倍以上或许是个挑战，但并非不可能。关键在于：通过这项交易，AMD 有望在 Meta Platforms 的 AI 加速器业务中获得约 40% 的收入分成，而英伟达则占 50% 左右，AMD 自家的 MTIA 设备以及（如果传闻中的）谷歌 TPU 交易最终达成，可能还有 10% 的收入分成。这些加速器加起来将占 Meta Platforms 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格承诺公司在未来十年末投入 6000 亿美元数据中心资金的一半以上（3270 亿美元）。我们知道，这只是在餐巾纸背面粗略估算，但四年后的预算规划也同样如此。我们拭目以待。但有一点可以肯定，正如苏姿丰在电话会议结束时所说：“我们对Meta进行了大手笔投资，而Meta也对AMD进行了大手笔投资。”参考链接https://www.nextplatform.com/2026/02/24/some-more-game-theory-this-time-on-the-amd-meta-platforms-deal/（来源：编译自nextplatform）*免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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