80亿红包退潮之后大厂AI面临“留量”大考

中国经营网02-28

马年春节最大的不同之一，无疑是AI从“新玩具”真实变身生活“小助理”。　　互联网大厂狂撒红包大战春节档，AI的可用性正在变得具体：AI帮你点外卖、买电影票、规划行程，搜优惠券；上亿人用AI写拜年祝福、制作图片、视频。　　阿里、腾讯、字节、百度、京东等投入超80亿元发动春节AI“红包大战”。各方日前公布战报：阿里宣布，春节期间用户在千问上“一句话下单”近2亿次，全国平均每10人就有1人在千问下单；...

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\"retention\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TCHmain":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"BABA":1.92,"09988":1.92,"BBYY":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"00700":1.88,"ALBmain":0.6,"TCEHY":1.88,"AIYY":0.6,"VGT":0.68,"BABX":0.6,"BABW":0.6},"content_text":"马年春节最大的不同之一，无疑是AI从“新玩具”真实变身生活“小助理”。　　互联网大厂狂撒红包大战春节档，AI的可用性正在变得具体：AI帮你点外卖、买电影票、规划行程，搜优惠券；上亿人用AI写拜年祝福、制作图片、视频。　　阿里、腾讯、字节、百度、京东等投入超80亿元发动春节AI“红包大战”。各方日前公布战报：阿里宣布，春节期间用户在千问上“一句话下单”近2亿次，全国平均每10人就有1人在千问下单；字节跳动称，除夕当天，豆包AI互动总次数达到19亿次；腾讯宣布，元宝日活跃用户（DAU）超5000万，月活跃用户（MAU）已达1.14亿。　　伴随春节假期结束，更严峻的考验浮出水面：红包退潮，用户留存率究竟如何？没有了红包刺激，大厂靠什么把用户留下来？多位业内人士在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示情况不容乐观。　　“身边很多朋友，红包结束后已经卸载了一些App。”天使投资人、网经社电子商务研究中心特约研究员郭涛在接受记者采访时预测，若纯靠红包驱动，7日留存率普遍低于20%；30日留存率平均为12%左右，小型AI应用的30日留存率则可能不足5%。　　最低留存率不足5%　　春节期间，大厂撒下80亿元AI红包。　　字节跳动率先抢下春晚合作席位，豆包深度参与央视春晚互动，发出数亿元红包和礼品；腾讯元宝准备了10亿元现金红包激励与全新的AI社交功能 “元宝派” 迎战；阿里巴巴则抢在春晚开场前，耗资30亿元推出AI助手“千问”请客计划。　　热闹的抢红包过后，用户热情退潮也很快。上海的周女士发现大年初一过后，群里分享红包链接突然变少了。“这种红包社交主要集中在关系比较近的朋友和家人，热闹了一轮也就结束了，没有跨界到工作社交。”　　多位接受记者采访的用户表示，抢红包过后就很少再主动打开相关AI应用了。　　“千问的退潮会慢一点。”沈阳用户卢先生告诉记者，千问设置了两轮免单卡的有效期分别是2月28日、4月30日，之前因为服务器卡顿没有用掉的免单卡，“会惦记着在有效期用掉”。　　红包退潮后，用户留存是否会出现断崖下跌？基于对用户行为逻辑的分析，以及过往类似营销活动的经验，郭涛预测，App活动营销的7日留存率大多在20%—30%区间，若纯靠红包驱动，7日留存率普遍低于20%；30日留存率平均为12%左右，若纯靠红包驱动小AI应用30日留存率可能不足5%。　　“红包营销活动带来的这类用户多属于‘短期利益敏感型’，对产品核心功能认知薄弱，仅因现金刺激被动参与活动。”郭涛进一步分析。　　“历史参照更具警示意义，2019年百度春晚红包，新用户7日留存率仅约2%。100个因红包下载的用户，一周后仅剩两个。”中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜举例称。　　不过，郭涛认为：“目前大厂不仅仅靠红包激励，是‘红包激励+场景应用’的路线，留存率要比纯靠红包推广要高一些。”　　记者注意到，虽然大厂公布的战绩主要包括下单量、日活跃用户（DAU）、月活跃用户（MAU），但内部看重的远不止这些指标。　　千问总裁吴嘉在接受媒体采访时谈道：“DAU不是我们优先看的指标，主要看用户反馈和用户体验。比如，用户说了多少次‘千问帮我’，我每天都在看，这代表了用户心智的形成。”　　一位阿里千问的内部人士向记者透露，在红包大战中阿里并不是单纯发红包，更强调用户的参与感，是真的通过红包体验了整个购买的流程（点外卖、买电影票、门票），就像吴嘉所说的更强调“千问帮我”的心智。　　“留量”考验　　春节AI红包大战，大厂的策略也并不相同。　　正如元宝AI自己总结的，“这是一场路径依赖之战”。柏文喜认为，阿里千问用30亿元，通过免单+生态闭环买“消费习惯”；腾讯元宝是用10亿元社交裂变买“社交关系”，强推“元宝”；字节豆包则通过春晚买“品牌认知”，AI能力进一步嵌入抖音全系产品。　　在柏文喜看来，本质差异在于，阿里用“免单”替代“现金红包”，将用户直接拉入淘宝闪购、飞猪、盒马等真实消费场景；腾讯押注社交关系链；字节依托抖音流量池；百度则延续搜索基因的用户习惯。　　一场热闹的红包退潮后，怎么把用户留下来，才是大厂面临的真实考验。　　网经社电子商务研究中心数字生活分析师陈礼腾认为，短期流量能否转化为长期价值，核心在于是否与平台高黏性场景形成闭环。真正决定成败的并非红包金额大小，而是春节后30日的留存质量与用户行为转化深度。　　“红包退潮后，用户使用习惯是否会消退，取决于AI产品是否真正融入高频生活场景。”资深产业经济观察家梁振鹏认为，以阿里千问为例，如果它在外卖、购票等场景中提供显著优于传统方式的体验（如更智能的推荐、更便捷的操作），用户留存率会较高；反之，如果只是红包激励下的短期尝试，退潮后用户可能流失。　　各家的留存策略也不相同，据柏文喜观察，阿里千问在持续打磨“AI办事”能力，如果AI办事的体验不及传统App（如美团、携程），用户仍会回流到传统App；字节方面，AI能力深度嵌入抖音、今日头条、西瓜视频等所有核心产品，并推进AI手机、AI耳机等硬件探索，实现“软+硬”的全场景覆盖；腾讯元宝内测“元宝派”社交功能，让AI总结群聊、创建兴趣打卡活动，试图构建“人机共生”的新社交场景，这也是腾讯最擅长的“关系链”护城河。　　“红包过后，长期看关键在于AI服务的便捷性、准确性和场景适配度是否足够强，让用户从‘尝鲜’转向‘依赖’。”苏商银行特约研究员付一夫对记者表示。　　接受记者采访的多位用户表示，至少目前对AI的依赖并没有出现。比如用千问点外卖、在盒马下单，并没有比原有的App更流畅，更多还是冲着红包去的。　　从目前的迹象看，红包大战不会随着春节的结束马上停下来，阿里巴巴还在尝试延续千问请客计划的热度。比如从2月17日开始，千问持续推“每日首单必减”，叠加原有平台的优惠可以再享“最低3.8元”的“每天首单必减”。　　“千问的落地场景会持续增加。”上述千问人士向记者透露。此前千问在接入阿里生态时提到还将接入购物、导航等功能，目前还未真正打通。记者尝试对千问提出，“帮我打车”“帮我连接淘宝”，千问回应，“无法为您直接下单，建议您打开手机上的打车软件”，同时推荐了滴滴、高德和美团。　　谈到本次30亿元投入的长期回报预期，吴嘉回应称：“由于用户参与超出预期，投入实际远远超过30亿元。”他同时强调：“AI不是一夜成熟的，是在真实世界中被不断打磨出来的。”　　种种迹象表明，红包大战只是序幕，AI超级应用的入口之战才刚刚开始。（文章来源：中国经营网）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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80亿红包退潮之后 大厂AI面临“留量”大考

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80亿红包退潮之后大厂AI面临“留量”大考