建银国际：中国消费行业开局总体稳健节日聚会需求带动餐饮收入

智通财经02-25

智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研报称，服务型与体验型消费的修复明显快于传统商品零售。展望后续，消费修复仍呈现结构性与不均衡特征，部分传统零售细分领域或面临库存与价格压力。政策层面，预计决策层将延续春节期间形成的积极势头，在全国“两会”前后进一步推出更有针对性的、渐进式宽松举措，以稳预期、托底需求。在此背景下，盈利可见性和基本面韧性显得更为重要。具备明显规模优势、单位经济效益良好、成本管控能力突出...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407097.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研报称，服务型与体验型消费的修复明显快于传统商品零售。展望后续，消费修复仍呈现结构性与不均衡特征，部分传统零售细分领域或面临库存与价格压力。政策层面，预计决策层将延续春节期间形成的积极势头，在全国“两会”前后进一步推出更有针对性的、渐进式宽松举措，以稳预期、托底需求。在此背景下，盈利可见性和基本面韧性显得更为重要。具备明显规模优势、单位经济效益良好、成本管控能力突出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407097.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B0JY6N72.USD","symbol_name":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407097.html","article_id":"2614370903","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614370903","pubTimestamp":1772007536,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"建银国际主要观点如下：春节消费好于预期2026年春节假期为2月17–23日，是史上最长春节假期。该行将本次春节视为观察消费修复内生动力，以及研判全国“两会”前后政策取向的重要窗口。官方数据显示，本次春节消费表现好于预期。整体来看，本次春节数据为全年消费复苏奠定了相对稳固的起点。节日聚会需求带动餐饮收入更高的出行频次、更温和的天气以及更长的假期共同支撑了本次春节的餐饮需求。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2087589342.USD":"BGF ASIAN MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0823041008.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS EMERGING WORLD EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE 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revenue","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"METmain":0.6,"MPNGY":1.87,"06862":1.85,"03690":1.87,"HMTD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研报称，服务型与体验型消费的修复明显快于传统商品零售。展望后续，消费修复仍呈现结构性与不均衡特征，部分传统零售细分领域或面临库存与价格压力。政策层面，预计决策层将延续春节期间形成的积极势头，在全国“两会”前后进一步推出更有针对性的、渐进式宽松举措，以稳预期、托底需求。在此背景下，盈利可见性和基本面韧性显得更为重要。具备明显规模优势、单位经济效益良好、成本管控能力突出的领先餐饮运营商，以及充分受益于海南长期政策红利、能够通过经营杠杆实现利润率抬升的核心免税运营商，有望在消费周期逐步常态化的过程中实现相对收益。建银国际主要观点如下：春节消费好于预期2026年春节假期为2月17–23日，是史上最长春节假期。延长至9天的长假显著提振了餐饮、旅游等对客流高度敏感的消费场景。该行将本次春节视为观察消费修复内生动力，以及研判全国“两会”前后政策取向的重要窗口。在宏观环境偏弱的背景下，政策支持务实且前置落地，各地政府在春节前累计发放逾20.5亿元消费券及补贴，有效托底需求。官方数据显示，本次春节消费表现好于预期。商务部数据显示，重点零售和餐饮企业销售额在可比口径下同比增长5.7%，较2025年春节和中秋“黄金周”分别4.1%和2.7%的增速明显加快。在监测的78个重点商圈中，客流量和销售额同比分别增长6.7%和7.5%。整体来看，本次春节数据为全年消费复苏奠定了相对稳固的起点。节日聚会需求带动餐饮收入更高的出行频次、更温和的天气以及更长的假期共同支撑了本次春节的餐饮需求。各平台预订数据均显示除夕年夜饭宴席热度高企。据美团-W(03690)与大众点评数据，除夕堂食预订量在可比口径下同比增长超过三倍。海底捞(06862)除夕当天桌位预订量超过5万桌，春节期间营业门店数量超过1,000家。便宜坊等老字号品牌除夕实现满堂，自大年初二至初五期间，预订率持续维持在90%以上。该行也观察到，春节期间预制菜需求持续上升，背后主要受益于便利性与性价比的提升。年轻一代正在重新定义年夜饭的意义，从耗时费力的“全自煮”转向把更多时间留给亲友团聚与休息，这一消费观念正在逐步跨年龄层形成共识。据叮咚买菜(DDL.US)数据，2026年除夕预制年夜饭销售额在可比口径下增长180%。大型餐饮品牌和商超零售商也积极布局该赛道，推出多样化的即食和半成品年夜饭礼盒，进一步渗透家庭聚餐场景。长假提振旅游需求随着消费者对“体验感”和“情绪价值”的偏好愈发凸显，相关政策支持也正加速转化为实质需求。春节期间，冰雪游和避寒游等主题旅游表现亮眼，相关客流和订单分别实现120%和68%的同比增长。本次9天超长假期进一步释放了跨区域、跨场景的旅游需求。来自飞猪、途牛(TOUR.US)等多个平台的数据均显示，“一次假期、多段出游”正成为新趋势，2026年春节期间整体旅游订单量与人均消费双双增长。飞猪数据显示，春节国内游订单量再创新高，其中景区门票预订量同比增长逾80%，酒店间夜量同比增长75%。美团数据亦显示，春节期间平台用户人均打卡2.2座城市，跨多城市进行文旅消费的用户占比同比提升50%。在该行看来，更长的假期配合更加灵活、多段式与错峰化的出游安排，有效拉长了春节旅游需求的时间跨度和覆盖半径，推动交通、住宿及目的地资源利用率提升，为旅游及泛文旅产业链的修复提供了更坚实的基础。免税消费成为假期另一亮点离岛免税同样表现抢眼。本次为海南全岛封关运作实施后的首个春节假期，新的政策框架释放了前期积压需求，加速了高端消费回流境内。海关数据显示，春节期间海南离岛免税销售额同比大幅增长30.8%至27.2亿元，客流量同比增长35.4%。强劲表现主要受两方面驱动：（1）在更长假期催化下的客流提升；（2）全岛封关后商品供给和门店运营效率的持续改善。相关数据印证了新政对离岛免税消费的强力拉动效应，也彰显了国内免税渠道经营韧性和盈利能力的提升空间，行业在收入增速及通过规模效应带来的利润率改善方面的可见度进一步增强。板块主要风险：（1）宏观不确定性导致消费复苏弱于预期；（2）原材料及其他要素成本快速上涨；（3）运营成本高于预期；（4）行业竞争加剧；（5）监管政策出现不利变化；（6）资本市场波动对估值和资金面造成冲击。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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建银国际：中国消费行业开局总体稳健 节日聚会需求带动餐饮收入

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建银国际：中国消费行业开局总体稳健节日聚会需求带动餐饮收入