英伟达(NVDA.US)业绩重磅来袭 “AI算力牛市叙事”能否击溃“AI泡沫”?

智通财经02-25

智通财经APP获悉，随着有“地球最重要股票”称号的“AI芯片霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)将在美东时间周三美股收盘后(北京时间周四晨间)公布季度业绩，一场关于AI算力投资主题的“压力测试”也随之到来。聚焦于AI算力基础设施以及更广泛AI基建狂潮的全球投资者们正寻求证据，证明这家全球最高市值芯片巨头的利润正在紧密依托高达6500亿美元至7000亿美元的美国四大科技巨头(hyperscalers)巨额...

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Can the \"AI computing power bull market narrative\" defeat the \"AI bubble\"?","themeId":"12ebc27130e797d7de4ddf04a4516a42","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ANV":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，随着有“地球最重要股票”称号的“AI芯片霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)将在美东时间周三美股收盘后(北京时间周四晨间)公布季度业绩，一场关于AI算力投资主题的“压力测试”也随之到来。聚焦于AI算力基础设施以及更广泛AI基建狂潮的全球投资者们正寻求证据，证明这家全球最高市值芯片巨头的利润正在紧密依托高达6500亿美元至7000亿美元的美国四大科技巨头(hyperscalers)巨额AI资本支出预算大趋势而同步实现强劲增长预期。与此同时，来自hyperscalers近期密集宣布将推出基于自研模式的性价比更高AI ASIC芯片的动向，也正显现出对英伟达在全球AI基建最核心领域——AI芯片领域长期绝对主导地位构成风险的迹象。在过去三年推动美国股市迈向超级牛市轨迹之后，在纳斯达克100指数以及标普500指数中占据高权重的英伟达股价在2026年迄今仅上涨约2%，主要因Anthropic一系列AI代理产品引发的“AI末日叙事”重创软件股以及高估值的科技巨头们，加之超大规模云厂商们加速自研性价比更高的替代AI ASIC芯片(比如TPU)并推动多供应商策略，叠加AMD等竞争加剧。下图为英伟达2026年股价表现对比MAGS ETF(聚焦于美股七大科技巨头的ETF产品)与标普500指数。与计划在今年晚些时候发布一款新版本的旗舰AI服务器集群设施的强劲竞争对手AMD(AMD.US)一道，Alphabet旗下的科技巨头谷歌已凭借一项协议崛起为英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的强劲竞争对手——该协议将向Claude聊天机器人开发商Anthropic提供其庞大的自研基础的TPU AI算力集群(属于AI ASIC技术路线)。根据媒体报道，谷歌也在与Facebook母公司Meta(META.US)洽谈，拟向这家英伟达的最大客户之一供货TPU系AI算力基础设施。此外，英伟达业绩可谓是“事件驱动型”业绩数据，期权市场隐含英伟达财报后股价预期波动约±5%，以其约4.7万亿美元市值计，对应约2260亿美元的单次定价摆动;再考虑其在标普500指数中大约7.8%的权重，单从权重机械效应看，就足以引发美股市场剧烈波动。在经历自2023年以来这轮美股超级牛市的大幅上涨趋势之后，包括谷歌、微软、亚马逊以及英伟达在内的全球市值最高的美国七大科技巨头们今年股价持续动荡，主要因为投资者开始质疑：对AI算力基础设施的持续大规模投入(今年美国四大科技巨头AI资本支出或将超7000亿美元，意味着有望激增60%)是否能产生足够强劲的回报率，以支撑其高企估值。占据标普500指数以及纳斯达克100指数高额权重(大约35%-40%)的所谓“七大科技巨头”，即“Magnificent Seven”(Mag 7)，它们包括：苹果、微软、谷歌、特斯拉、英伟达、亚马逊以及Facebook母公司Meta Platforms，它们乃标普500指数屡创新高的核心推动力，也被华尔街顶级投资机构们视为在自互联网时代以来最大技术变革背景下最有能力为投资者们带来巨额回报的组合。英伟达欲紧抓AI推理大浪潮为捍卫其近乎垄断的AI算力基础设施地位以及紧抓AI推理大浪潮，AI芯片超级霸主英伟达去年年末达成了一项据称价值200亿美元的重磅交易，以获得来自AI芯片初创公司Groq的芯片技术授权——分析师们普遍认为，此举将提升其在AI推理(inference)这一蓬勃增长市场中的领军者地位;推理是指训练完成之后的AI大模型实时且高效率回答问题并且快速完成复杂的AI代理工作流的过程。英伟达上周还同意向Meta出售数百万颗AI芯片，但未披露交易金额。但作为AI热潮的最大赢家，英伟达自身也通过拉长对OpenAI这一最大客户之一的潜在1000亿美元投资进程，引发了外界对相关AI算力基础设施支出可持续性以及所谓“AI内部循环投资”的潜在疑虑。近期一则媒体报道称，该芯片巨头计划用规模更小的300亿美元投资来替代此前的千亿美元承诺。英伟达AI GPU几乎垄断的AI训练侧需要更加强大的AI算力集群通用性以及整个算力体系的快速迭代能力，而AI推理侧则在前沿AI技术规模化落地后更看重单位token成本、延迟与能效。比如谷歌明确把Ironwood定位为“为AI推理时代而生”的TPU代际，并强调性能/能效/算力集群性价比与可扩展性。英伟达与AI芯片初创公司Groq的交易本质是非独占推理类AI芯片技术授权 + 吸纳Groq创始人/CEO Jonathan Ross等高管与部分核心工程团队，一些半导体行业分析师也强调Groq的独家芯片技术专注推理并用片上SRAM等方式降低数据搬运瓶颈，可谓直指推理阶段的成本/延迟痛点。因此，前不久与AI芯片初创公司Groq达成的200亿美元非独家授权合作协议，将其AI推理技术授权给英伟达，并且在交易完成后Groq创始人及核心研发团队将加入英伟达，可谓共同凸显出随着“全球AI推理大浪潮”全面来袭，叠加谷歌TPU AI算力集群带来的越来越大竞争压力，英伟达力争通过“多架构AI算力+巩固CUDA生态+引进更多AI芯片设计人才”来维持其在AI芯片领域高达80%市场份额的绝对主导权，并且英伟达欲锁住AI全栈话语权。AI算力投资主题的“压力测试”市场迫切需要看到在科技巨头们合计约6500亿美元至7000亿美元巨额AI相关资本开支的背景下，英伟达的利润与营收增速能否继续兑现并维持“超预期传统”，并且期待英伟达业绩指引也实现远超华尔街普遍预期。“这次英伟达的第四财季财报尤其重要，因为人们对AI算力基础设施支出前景非常担忧——担忧我们是否正处在AI泡沫之中。”Spear Invest首席投资官Ivana Delevska表示。该机构通过一只交易所交易基金持有英伟达股票。“证明盈利增长并未真正放缓将非常重要。”根据LSEG汇编的华尔街分析师预期数据，华尔街预计英伟达将报告截至1月的季度利润同比激增逾62%，意味着将较上一季度65.3%的增速有所放缓，因为其将面对更严苛的同比比较基数。英伟达2026财年第四财季总营收料跃升逾68%至661.6亿美元。华尔街分析师们预计英伟达管理层将预测2027财年第一季度营收将再增长64.4%至724.6亿美元。值得注意的是，该芯片巨头在过去13个季度的业绩数据均超出分析师营收预期，但超预期的幅度已收窄，主要因随着英伟达市值触及史无前例的5万亿美元大关且经历3年多大幅上涨，分析师对于英伟达的增长预期愈发苛刻。RBC的股票分析师团队预计，该芯片巨头将给出截至4月的季度营收指引至少比市场一致预期高出3%。来自Spear Invest的Delevska作为英伟达长期多头势力则认为，该芯片巨头可能给出比预期高出多达100亿美元的总营收指引，预计其将超出市场一致预期逾13%。美国银行近日发布的研报显示，全球AI军备竞赛仍处于“早期到中期阶段”;全球最大规模资产管理巨头之一的先锋领航近日在一份研究报告中指出，人工智能投资周期可能仅完成了最终峰值的30%-40%，然而，该资管巨头表示，大型科技股回调的风险确实正在增加。在华尔街巨头摩根士丹利、花旗、Loop Capital以及Wedbush看来，以AI算力硬件为核心的全球人工智能基础设施投资浪潮远远未完结，现在仅仅处于开端，在前所未有的“AI推理端算力需求风暴”推动之下，持续至2030年的这一轮全球整体AI基础设施投资浪潮规模有望高达3万亿至4万亿美元。DRAM/NAND存储芯片需求持续强劲且这些存储产品系列(比如DDR4/DDR5/数据中心企业级SSD系列)价格呈现野蛮扩张之势，主要因AI算力洪流将存储芯片需求以及存储芯片对于AI训练/推理系统的重要性推向前所未有的高度，当前全球AI算力需求可谓持续呈现出指数级增长趋势，算力供给远远跟不上需求强度，这一点从“全球芯片之王”台积电、“光刻机之王”阿斯麦近期公布的无比强劲业绩数据中就能明显看出。对近期偏横盘、但内部波动很大的美股来说，英伟达财报的意义是：它不仅在回答“英伟达增长趋势是否强劲”，更在回答“强劲AI资本开支—盈利兑现—估值折现”这条逻辑链条是否仍成立以及能否击溃“AI泡沫”相关的质疑情绪。2026年以来，标普500指数年内仅小幅上行(约0.2%左右)，但“水面下”分化明显，软件与服务等板块因AI颠覆担忧而明显承压;同时在更宏观的层面，华尔街调查也显示市场对2026年路径仍夹杂贸易与AI算力基础设施支出扰动等不确定性、估值(远期市盈率约21.6倍)仍偏敏感——因此英伟达管理层在电话会里对客户下单能见度、AI投资回报周期(capex ROI)与行业竞争格局层面的相关措辞，会被当作整个高贝塔值的AI基建生态(包含云计算厂商、AI算力基础设施供应链、数据中心电力链等等)以及AI软件等赛道的“风险偏好锚”。STILL NO. 1的英伟达业绩报告或将引发市场剧烈波动统计数据显示，美股乃至全球股市最高市值公司英伟达业绩或将引发股票市场剧烈动荡。期权市场隐含英伟达财报后股价预期波动约±5%，以其约4.7万亿美元市值计，对应约2260亿美元的单次定价摆动;再考虑其在标普500指数中大约7.8%的权重，单从权重机械效应看，就足以引发美股市场剧烈波动。英伟达财报与业绩指引若出现“Q4业绩仅仅略高于预期或者指引不够强”的预期差，往往会触发从半导体产业链领军者们到云计算厂商们再到软件股的同步去风险，短期波动率(VIX)也更容易被大幅推升(近几周VIX大致在20附近波动，通常意味着对期权保护的需求已较为显著)。反过来，若营收与指引显著超预期并稳住对于全球股市牛市轨迹至关重要的“AI算力牛市叙事”，则更可能带来风险偏好快速修复与波动率回落。分析师们仍然预计，英伟达价格高昂的AI芯片需求将保持强劲。这些芯片充当处理海量AI工作负载的服务器“大脑”，并将在今年科技巨头用于扩建或者大规模新建AI数据中心产能的巨额支出中占据绝对大头。英伟达高管在1月也暗示，他们正在与大客户们讨论明年的数据中心订单，这促使多位华尔街分析师预测，该芯片巨头将更新其在2025年10月首次披露的2025至2026年的累计高达5000亿美元AI算力基础设施订单积压规模。不过，英伟达增长面临的最大制约因素，可能是芯片供应链层面的产能瓶颈——该瓶颈限制了AI芯片出货速度，因为英伟达及其竞争对手们正激烈争夺在全球最大规模芯片制造巨头台积电(TSM.US)3纳米级别芯片产线上的产能空间。来自Seaport Research Partners的Jay Goldberg在一份报告中写道：“我们认为英伟达业绩将轻松达到预期，但鉴于台积电产能限制，很难看到他们带来更大规模的上行空间。”不过，英伟达对中国的AI芯片销售额可能大举回归——此前因美国政府施加的出口限制而受限，这或将帮助推高英伟达营收以及利润预期。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋上月表示，他希望中国方面允许该公司在当地销售其高性能H200 AI芯片，并称相关销售许可正在最终敲定中。竞争对手AMD(AMD.US)则在获得许可证并且可向中国出货部分改版的数据中心服务器级别CPU与GPU处理器后，已将中国市场的高性能AI芯片销售重新纳入其对当前季度的业绩预测。英伟达预计将在第四财季录得75%的经调整毛利率，较上年同期提高逾1个百分点。分析师们普遍预计，该公司不会受到全球存储芯片供应急剧短缺的伤害。他们表示，英伟达的定价能力以及其很可能已经锁定了全年乃至2027年高带宽存储系统(即HBM)配额，将使其免受存储器价格疯狂上涨的负面影响。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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