销量回升、阵营重构与动力变革：2025年乘用车市场全景观察

车百会研究院02-26

前言本文基于2020-2025年间国内乘用车终端上险数据，从企业集团、品牌阵营、动力类型三个维度进行了梳理，并对市场总体发展形势与企业竞争格局展开分析。01主要集团企业国内乘用车销量趋势国内乘用车市场逼近历史高点。2025年，乘用车国内销量2406.5万辆，同比增长6.4%，接近2017年峰值水平。以旧换新政策起到关键推动作用，2025年，汽车以旧换新总量超过1150万辆。新能源汽车销量持续增长，...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260226085958a71ff741&s=b><strong>车百会研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前言本文基于2020-2025年间国内乘用车终端上险数据，从企业集团、品牌阵营、动力类型三个维度进行了梳理，并对市场总体发展形势与企业竞争格局展开分析。01主要集团企业国内乘用车销量趋势国内乘用车市场逼近历史高点。2025年，乘用车国内销量2406.5万辆，同比增长6.4%，接近2017年峰值水平。以旧换新政策起到关键推动作用，2025年，汽车以旧换新总量超过1150万辆。新能源汽车销量持续增长，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260226085958a71ff741&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2357125470.USD","symbol_name":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) 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2025","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"81810":0.6,"82333":0.9,"02238":0.9,"09973":0.9,"09927":0.9,"002594":1.9,"02015":0.9,"01211":1.9,"02333":0.9,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"09868":0.9,"TSLA":1.88,"MIUmain":0.6,"BYDDY":1.9,"00175":1.91,"GELYY":1.91,"01810":0.9,"00285":0.6,"09866":0.9,"HYDD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"前言本文基于2020-2025年间国内乘用车终端上险数据，从企业集团、品牌阵营、动力类型三个维度进行了梳理，并对市场总体发展形势与企业竞争格局展开分析。01主要集团企业国内乘用车销量趋势国内乘用车市场逼近历史高点。2025年，乘用车国内销量2406.5万辆，同比增长6.4%，接近2017年峰值水平。以旧换新政策起到关键推动作用，2025年，汽车以旧换新总量超过1150万辆。新能源汽车销量持续增长，成为市场主流，2025年新能源乘用车国内销量1300.5万辆，同比增长17.7%，渗透率达到54%。基于国内乘用车销量趋势可将主要整车集团发展特征划分为四大类。一是高速增长型，以吉利、蔚来、零跑、小鹏、小米为代表。其中吉利依托成熟产品线筑牢销量基本盘，同时以新能源新品类持续拉动增长，2025年吉利集团内新能源销量占比达60%，在高基数背景下，连续两年实现30%的销量增长。蔚来、零跑、小鹏、小米则通过新能源产品的迭代与扩容，持续撬动增量市场，2025年销量增速均超50%，远超行业平均水平。随着销量规模突破盈利关键阈值，新势力企业有望迈入盈利区间。二是冲高企稳型，包括比亚迪、奇瑞、赛力斯、特斯拉、理想。这些企业在过去五年，年复合增长率整体处于20%以上的高增长区间，经历过一轮高速增长后2025年增速回落，但整体增长路径清晰且具备后续增长韧性。三是波动调整型，这类企业积极推动新能源转型，新能源渗透率持续增长。但在转型阶段，面临燃油车业务快速萎缩的压力，存量市场份额被持续挤压；同时新能源业务受产品定位、技术路线等因素影响，发展态势尚未平稳，整体处于转型中的波动调整期。随着企业持续优化产品结构、加大新能源板块资源投入，后续有望逐步改善经营状况，恢复平稳增长。四是转型滞后型，这类企业仍然依赖合资品牌燃油车业务，自主新能源板块还未能打造出具备市场竞争力的产品。新能源汽车渗透率仍在15%以下，仍需加快转型节奏。02分品牌阵营市场格局自主品牌阵营呈现“一超多强”的竞争格局。比亚迪销量连续多年居自主品牌榜首。2022-2025比亚迪（含子品牌）在自主品牌乘用车市场中的市占率分别达到17.6%、23.4%、26.7%、22.8%。但值得关注的是，自主品牌阵营内部的竞争日趋白热化，比亚迪2025年国内销量和市占率均有所下降。吉利与奇瑞凭借多品牌矩阵的差异化布局实现了增长。吉利旗下银河、极氪聚焦中高端新能源市场，领克主打潮流运动细分领域；奇瑞旗下捷途则深耕“旅行SUV”赛道，iCAR在新能源方盒子赛道持续创新。这些子品牌销量同步走高，成为拉动集团整体销量增长的新引擎。新势力阵营经历深度洗牌。从2020-2025年新势力销量走势来看，行业格局呈现出“淘汰一批、突围一批”的鲜明分化态势。年销量破万的自主新能源品牌数量由2020年的16家，增加到53家。鸿蒙智行、特斯拉、理想、小鹏、蔚来、零跑、小米等品牌凭借技术创新、产品迭代与精准的市场布局实现突围。而哪咤、威马等企业因产品缺乏核心竞争力、市场定位模糊等问题，逐步退出市场竞争。从短期情境来看，取得优势的新势力企业仍不可松懈，在激烈的市场竞争环境下，此前积累的市场份额随时可能被分流，需要将阶段性的领先优势转化为长期可持续的竞争力。合资品牌市场份额持续萎缩。2025年合资品牌乘用车市场份额已跌破35%，较2020年呈现翻转式下滑。具体来看，德系品牌在2020-2024年期间的销量跌幅相对可控，但2025年下滑态势明显加剧，同比跌幅扩大至13.77%；美系品牌依托特斯拉的销量贡献，一定程度上延缓了整体下滑节奏，但若剔除特斯拉，其余美系品牌2020-2025年的年复合跌幅超过17%；日系品牌虽仍保有12%的市场份额，但2020-2025年的年复合跌幅已超过10%，市场基盘松动；韩系及其他欧系品牌则陷入基数偏低与销量快速萎缩的双重困境，发展形势更为严峻。合资品牌持续推进电动化转型，但整体节奏缓慢。德系品牌转型步伐有所放缓，2025年新能源渗透率仅为6.7%，较上年同比下降2.9个百分点；欧系、美系（不含特斯拉）则侧重发力插混与增程技术路线，相关车型占比显著提升，2025年该类车型占比攀升至10.6%，同比提升6.9 个百分点；日系品牌选择双线并行的转型路径，一方面稳步提升HEV车型市场占比，另一方面加快纯电车型布局节奏，2025年其纯电车型占比从1.88% 提升至6.28%；韩系品牌转型节奏相对保守，2025年新能源渗透率与上年基本持平，未出现明显突破。03分动力类型发展形势车企燃油车销量普遍下滑，2025年燃油乘用车市场占比已跌破50%。分企业来看，主流合资企业的萎缩趋势尤为显著，大众2025年国内燃油车销量较2020年跌幅超30%；丰田跌幅达10%，市场份额持续收窄；通用、本田、日产的下滑幅度更为剧烈，2025年销量较2020年近乎腰斩。合资豪华品牌方面，奥迪、奔驰、宝马在2020-2023年间销量波动相对平缓，受新能源车型的冲击影响有限，但2024-2025年，随着自主新能源品牌在科技豪华赛道创新发力，传统豪华销量迎来快速下滑。自主车企的表现则出现分化，吉利、奇瑞的燃油车销量基本维持稳定，表现相对稳健；长安、长城等自主品牌的燃油车业务在市场承压与主动转型的双向作用下趋向明显收缩。自主与新势力车企交替拉动新能源市场增长。2025年国内新能源乘用车渗透率达到54%，新能源汽车正式成为市场消费主流。不同发展阶段，车企对市场增长的贡献度呈现明显轮动特征。2020-2022年，新能源乘用车增长动力主要来自比亚迪、特斯拉与上汽通用五菱。比亚迪凭借全产业链布局与多车型覆盖抢占市场份额，特斯拉依托品牌与技术优势巩固高端市场地位，五菱则以高性价比车型精准撬动下沉市场需求。2022-2024年，比亚迪增长势头依旧强劲，与此同时，吉利、赛力斯、理想迎来高速增长期。吉利通过多品牌新能源矩阵拓宽受众群体，赛力斯凭借跨界模式实现销量跃升，理想则以增程式路线精准切中家庭用户痛点。进入2024-2025年，市场增长接力棒再次传递，吉利汽车新能源销量增长超60万辆，小米、小鹏、零跑等品牌增长均超20万辆，成为拉动市场增长的新生力量。多元动力类型推动新能源市场实现全方位、多层次的扩容。纯电车型始终是拉动新能源汽车整体增长的核心引擎，其销量规模从2020年的92万辆攀升至2025年的771.2万辆，持续主导市场增长节奏。2022-2024年，插混与增程式车型迎来快速放量期，与纯电车型形成互补之势。其增速一度超越纯电市场，在新能源中的销量占比由25%提升至42%，不仅有效完善了新能源汽车的产品供给矩阵，更精准填补了部分消费者对续航里程的顾虑与多元化出行需求的空白。随着充电基础设施网络的进一步加密，以及800V高压快充技术的规模化应用，用户补能焦虑得到显著缓解。2025年纯电车型重新回归，成为新能源汽车市场增长的主要推动力。04行业发展建议国内乘用车市场竞争仍在持续加剧。一方面，自主品牌间的竞争趋于白热化，企业依托多品牌矩阵进行扩张，向下沉市场渗透，向上冲击中高端市场；另一方面，新势力企业扩大规模，实现盈利的需求更为急迫，否则将面临出局的风险。此外，合资品牌为稳住基本盘，正采取降价促销策略。多重因素叠加下，行业整体竞争烈度持续加剧。对于暂时实现盈利的新势力企业而言，仍不可松懈。当前新能源汽车行业技术迭代节奏加快，市场需求结构亦持续动态调整，若缺乏核心技术壁垒，其市场份额极易被同类竞品快速分流。造车新势力需持续加大研发投入，筑牢核心技术领域的领先优势，同时优化供应链管理体系、强化成本控制能力，方能将短期盈利转化为长期可持续的核心竞争力。合资品牌的电动化转型进程亟待加快。从市场表现来看，合资品牌燃油车销量持续萎缩，电动化转型步伐缓慢。建议合资品牌加速本土化研发进程，结合中国市场的消费特点，推出真正具备竞争力的新能源车型。同时强化与本土供应链企业的合作，提升新能源产品的性价比与市场适配性。此外，车企还需高度重视海外市场布局，以提升企业抗风险能力。国内市场竞争日趋激烈，增长空间逐渐收窄，而东南亚、中东、欧洲等海外市场的新能源汽车需求正快速崛起。车企应积极推进全球化战略，构建国内国际双循环的发展格局，分散单一市场波动带来的经营风险。（注：本文数据基于国内乘用车终端上险数据，不含进出口，由于口径差异与企业公布数据或有差异。）执笔人：王贺武、张健、闫薪铭往期回顾具身机器人落地汽车制造场景的挑战与建议极豆科技创始人、CEO汪奕菲一行到访车百会研究院张永伟：汽车服务业是亟待释放的“第二汽车产业”车百会研究院扫描客服二维码，加入读者群//转发，点赞，在看","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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