地缘风险溢价推升油价，板块全线飙升，春季躁动有了新主线？

券商中国02-24

开年“第一强”有些超出预期！马年第一个交易日（2月24日）开盘，最强的板块不是人工智能，也不是机器人，反而是油气板块。通源石油开盘后1分钟，20%封死涨停板。整个油气开采板块集体暴拉，准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。分析认为，当前，美伊关系紧张推高原油市场地缘风险溢价，布伦特原油价格自66美元/桶升至72美元/桶，净多持仓回升至两年高位，1月看涨期权成交量达历史峰值。市场担忧美伊...

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Is there a new main line for spring agitation?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00857":0.9},"content_text":"开年“第一强”有些超出预期！马年第一个交易日（2月24日）开盘，最强的板块不是人工智能，也不是机器人，反而是油气板块。通源石油开盘后1分钟，20%封死涨停板。整个油气开采板块集体暴拉，准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。分析认为，当前，美伊关系紧张推高原油市场地缘风险溢价，布伦特原油价格自66美元/桶升至72美元/桶，净多持仓回升至两年高位，1月看涨期权成交量达历史峰值。市场担忧美伊冲突可能升级为全面战争，影响霍尔木兹海峡原油供应，推动油价短期冲高。那么，春季躁动第二阶段是否从油气开始呢？实物资产打头阵长假期间，外围实物资产，如石油、金银等大幅拉升，助力今天A股相关板块表现。早盘，油气股全线大涨，通源石油、准油股份、中曼石油、山东墨龙、洲际油气等纷纷涨停。石油ETF一度大涨7%。有色金属亦集体飙升，板块涨幅超过3%。晓程科技、白银有色（维权）、湖南白银、江南新材等涨停或涨幅超过10%。中国中铁等有色概念股亦大幅飙涨。国金证券认为，当前原油市场由地缘政治风险主导，美伊关系紧张推升布伦特原油净多持仓及看涨期权押注至历史高位。短期油价呈现高波动性，预计未来一个月内仍将维持易涨难跌态势，若冲突升级至全面战争，油价或超预期冲高，但随后可能因需求疲软及货币政策转向而回落。若仅发生有限军事打击，油价或冲击至75美元/桶以上，但持续性有限。若达成核协议，地缘风险溢价将回吐，油价回落。春季躁动进入第二阶段？今年实物打头阵的结构与市场普遍的期待并不相同。那么，春季躁动是否进入第二阶段？复盘显示，春节后5个、10个、20个交易日内市场上涨概率逐步提升，风格上呈现“中小盘优于大盘，成长占优”的特征，中证2000涨幅和上涨概率相对较高；行业上科技与周期板块相对占优。开源证券认为，春季躁动并非一次性走完，过去十年有6次在经历回调后走出第二波上涨，且第二轮上涨往往比第一波更具赚钱效应，方向与当时市场主线强相关。从时间点来看，马上将进入两会时间。而从历史来看，两会前后A股的风格又不一样。在这一段时间，轮动通常会加大，资金围绕政策导向的产业主线与主题机会博弈，赚钱效应并不会过于突出。两会结束之后，市场又通常会转向“财报”线索，交易情绪通常逐渐收敛。另外，近期外围市场并不平静。一方面美元流动性问题并未解决，近期的美国杠杆贷款指数和隔夜逆回购规模持续处于低位。而AI叙事逻辑却在持续冲击市场。英伟达财报前夕也是空头压顶；另一方面，关税和中东地缘冲击波迭起，使得金银和石油再度飙升，这对于成长股（特别是AI）而言，也绝非利好。在这种背景之下，春季行情亦可能会比去年波动要大一些。国金证券宋雪涛认为，当前全球资本市场正经历从叙事溢价向定价真实性的剧烈修正，流动性与风险偏好变化成为主要波动来源。AI产业链由“相互承诺”的融资模型转向对商业化闭环与财务真实性的严苛审视，加剧了美国实体经济基础与高估值科技叙事间的K型分化。新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614108746","isCrawlerRequest":true}