瑞银重申看多2026年中国股市：再通胀潜力成新引擎 MSCI中国指数有望上涨20%

智通财经02-26

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银证券亚洲(UBS Securities Asia)表示，随着通胀预期升温转化为更强劲的企业盈利，中国股市可能还有20%的上涨空间。该券商对各行业分析师进行的自下而上调研显示，由于投入成本上升，越来越多中国企业计划今年提价，同时产能过剩状况正显现改善迹象。策略师表示，再通胀环境将推动估值重估以及每股收益更强劲增长，可能带动MSCI中国指数上涨20%。以James Wang为首...

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Asia)表示，随着通胀预期升温转化为更强劲的企业盈利，中国股市可能还有20%的上涨空间。该券商对各行业分析师进行的自下而上调研显示，由于投入成本上升，越来越多中国企业计划今年提价，同时产能过剩状况正显现改善迹象。策略师表示，再通胀环境将推动估值重估以及每股收益更强劲增长，可能带动MSCI中国指数上涨20%。以James Wang为首...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1407516.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BKPKM429.USD","symbol_name":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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\"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","ASHR":"德银沪深300指数ETF"},"translate_title":"UBS reiterates its bullish view on China's stock market in 2026: reflation potential becomes a new engine, MSCI China Index is expected to rise by 20%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ASHR":0.6,"MCHI":0.6,"MSCI":1.91,"ASHS":0.6,"DRAG":0.6,"CQQQ":0.6,"CWEB":0.6,"KWEB":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞银证券亚洲(UBS Securities Asia)表示，随着通胀预期升温转化为更强劲的企业盈利，中国股市可能还有20%的上涨空间。该券商对各行业分析师进行的自下而上调研显示，由于投入成本上升，越来越多中国企业计划今年提价，同时产能过剩状况正显现改善迹象。策略师表示，再通胀环境将推动估值重估以及每股收益更强劲增长，可能带动MSCI中国指数上涨20%。以James Wang为首的策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，在价格上涨的情况下，“鉴于市场对再通胀的预期较低，以及与通胀相关股票(如消费类股)的仓位较低，潜在的股价反应更偏向上行”。在科技股驱动的反弹于本月失去动能之后，再通胀环境或将为中国股市提供新的推动力。MSCI中国指数在2月份已下跌5%，抹去了年内涨幅，此前该指数自4月低点以来一度大涨40%。最新报告重申了瑞银对中国市场的看涨观点。去年11月，该行分析师预计该MSCI中国指数将在2026年底达到100点。瑞银将房地产和必需消费板块从低配上调至中性，同时因人工智能(AI)颠覆风险和高估值隐忧，将软件板块评级下调至低配。James Wang指出，中国的生产者价格指数(PPI)降幅已趋于收窄，企业盈利能力也显现改善迹象。他补充称，债券收益率亦有所上升，表明投资者对再通胀存在一定预期。不过，他补充称，如果企业因销售压力无法提价，盈利预期将被下调，可能导致中国股市下行7%至10%。瑞银策略师表示：“2022年日本股市的经验表明，再通胀期间表现最佳的板块包括原材料、金融和房地产。”他们指出，就中国而言，鉴于投资者仓位较轻，部分消费板块可能成为较早受益者。值得一提的是，在AI与政策利好驱动下，其他国际大行同样看好中国股市前景。高盛在1月初曾预计，MSCI中国指数在2026年底将达到100点，较2025年底水平上涨20%;沪深300指数预计将在2026年上涨12%，至5200点。该行策略师表示，中国股市2026年的回报将主要由企业盈利改善所推动。在AI发展、企业“出海”以及反内卷政策的共同支撑下，盈利增速有望从2025年的4%提升，并在2026至2027年加快至约14%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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