遭遇黑天鹅！碳酸锂期价一度逼近19万元关口，影响多大？

券商中国02-27 07:32

黑天鹅事件突袭，正在扰动全球新能源产业链。近日，全球第四大锂矿生产国津巴布韦宣布暂停所有原矿和锂精矿出口，国际新能源产业链面临短期供应忧虑，对市场影响巨大。业内人士分析，目前，我国锂资源对外依存度60%左右，津巴布韦的突然断供意味着短期内我国9%左右的锂盐生产原料面临短缺风险。受此影响，国内碳酸锂期货主力合约连续两天大幅上涨，26日一度逼近19万元/吨关口。碳酸锂期价一度逼近19万元关口最新消息...

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The futures price of lithium carbonate once approached the 190,000 yuan mark. How big is the impact?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"002240":1.91,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"01211":0.9,"002594":0.6,"01772":0.9,"BYDDY":0.6,"02068":0.9,"000792":1.87},"content_text":"黑天鹅事件突袭，正在扰动全球新能源产业链。近日，全球第四大锂矿生产国津巴布韦宣布暂停所有原矿和锂精矿出口，国际新能源产业链面临短期供应忧虑，对市场影响巨大。业内人士分析，目前，我国锂资源对外依存度60%左右，津巴布韦的突然断供意味着短期内我国9%左右的锂盐生产原料面临短缺风险。受此影响，国内碳酸锂期货主力合约连续两天大幅上涨，26日一度逼近19万元/吨关口。碳酸锂期价一度逼近19万元关口最新消息显示，津巴布韦政府在2026年2月25日宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口，禁令即刻生效，且适用于已在运输途中的货物。津巴布韦是全球重要的锂资源国，其2025年锂产量约占全球的10%。此次禁令比原计划的2027年全面禁止精矿出口明显提前，短期内可能加剧全球特别是中国市场的锂原料供应紧张，推高锂价。但也有市场人士提醒，考虑到当地政策不确定性较高，后续需观察禁令持续时间。2月26日，国内期货市场开市后，市场迅速反应，碳酸锂主力合约直接跳高开盘，报价18.70万元/吨，飙升近12%，直逼前期1月26日的近三年高点18.94万元/吨，但随后市场一路走低，尾盘以17.36万元/吨收盘，涨幅回落到3.47%。文华财经数据显示，26日收盘时，碳酸锂期货市场沉淀资金达365.32亿元，26日当天资金净流入16.40亿元，成为当日商品期货市场资金流入量最大的品种。此前一天，春节后首个交易日，碳酸锂市场已经大幅上涨。2月25日，碳酸锂主力合约盘中涨幅一度扩大至6.48%，触及17.14万元/吨高点。在期货价格连续两天大幅上涨的同时，现货价格也在同步上涨。根据上海钢联最新数据，2月26日，电池级碳酸锂早盘均价报17.31万元/吨，较前一工作日上涨8650元。根据海关总署最新数据，2025年中国进口锂矿775.06万吨。其中，津巴布韦的来矿量约为120.41万吨，占总进口量的15.54%，折合约12万吨碳酸锂当量（LCE），成为仅次于澳洲的第二大硬岩锂来源。锂矿概念股内外有别在津巴布韦出口禁令下，A股锂矿概念板块股票却出现严重结构性分化。具有国内矿产资源概念的上市公司普遍上涨，如尔康制药触及“20cm”涨停，科力远、金圆股份（维权）涨停；盐湖股份（000792）震荡拉升，收盘涨幅7.76%，最新市值超2000亿元。与之相对的是，在津巴布韦有锂矿等资源布局上市公司盛新锂能、中矿资源、天华新能、雅化集团等，均出现较大跌幅。其中，雅化集团下跌8.76%，盛新锂能下跌6.50%，天华新能下跌5.51%。多家在当地有布局的A股上市公司当日对媒体确认，所有中方在津巴布韦锂精矿出口全部暂停，申请继续出口的相关资料已经在着手推进，而具体影响有多大仍在评估当中。除了供应扰动，出口成本也在增加，2026年1月，津巴布韦宣布增加10%的矿产出口税，锂精矿位列其中。企业之前仍和政府有谈判，希望延后执行，但随着碳酸锂价格稳步上涨，矿产出口税执行在所难免。市场人士认为，津巴布韦这一政策急转标志着非洲资源民族主义进入实质性执行阶段，对全球锂供应链造成突发性冲击。中粮期货研究院研究员余雅琨认为，津巴布韦本次措施短期旨在打击出口走私、加强政府监管与税收，长期目标则为发展本地产业链，与2014年印尼为摆脱初级产品出口依赖、发展本地产业链的做法相似。但鉴于当地基础设施建设薄弱，产业投建非一蹴而就，资源供给紧张时谈判天平将向优势方倾斜。具体禁运执行时长取决于政府效率及企业、机构的斡旋，暂且按一个月进行中性评估。当前，美、欧、日等主要经济体均将钴、锂、镍、铀、稀土等列为“关键矿产清单”，并通过立法补贴、战略储备、合资建矿等方式强化本土及盟友体系供应安全；这一趋势不仅抬升资源获取成本，更倒逼中国产业链加快海外优质资产布局。定价认知已由“现实宽松”转向“预期趋紧”“2026将成为锂行业的现实拐点之年，由供给扰动与需求爆发共同推动。”东方证券研究员于嘉懿认为，过去两年锂价格下行显著压缩了全球锂资源资本开支，核心锂企CAPEX已进入周期低谷水平，据测算2024—2025年全球锂资源产能的增速仅为17.1%，明显低于此前几年高点，未来可供释放的增量相对有限，供应压力陡然增长的可能性较小。而电网投资与AI相关基础设施建设等行业带来储能需求爆发，行业对未来供需结构的预期正在改善，市场对锂行业的定价认知已由“现实宽松”转向“预期趋紧”。于嘉懿认为，当供应缺口逐步显现后，锂供应资源国政策调整、战略储备行为以及产业链主动补库，都可能放大市场对稀缺性的定价。市场通常能够计算缺口本身，却往往低估缺口触发后的行为变化及情绪强化效应。“我们认为，锂价在中枢抬升的基准上，其阶段性上行幅度有望远超单纯基于供需平衡表推演得到的结果。”余雅琨指出，供给端“黑天鹅”频发与需求旺季共振，碳酸锂期货仍呈强势看涨格局。目前津巴布韦月度锂供应量约1万–1.5万吨LCE。若其禁运时间超过一个月，将对国内4月之后的碳酸锂产量形成显著影响；“供给滞后+低库存”的基本面，仍将为碳酸锂价格提供上行支撑。但需警惕短期冲高回落风险，市场情绪波动较快。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614070478","isCrawlerRequest":true}