英伟达Q4财报解析：短缺的远不止存储...

AI产业链研究02-26

点击上方蓝字关注我们英伟达周三发布了Q4财报，或许是投资者早已习惯了其业绩持续大超预期，财报公布后股价并未出现明显波动。但透过这份财报，我们能清晰看到，它仍在为整个AI产业链持续注入积极信号，行业向上的趋势未变。关于财报的具体业绩数据，这里不再过多赘述——无论是营收、利润，还是每股收益（EPS）等核心指标，均大幅超出市场预期。笔者在上一篇文章中提到的几个投资者重点关注的关键问题，管理层也给出了部分...

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storage...","themeId":"f3a9a00fee484f557e9d66aadbca9109","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ANV":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6},"content_text":"点击上方蓝字关注我们英伟达周三发布了Q4财报，或许是投资者早已习惯了其业绩持续大超预期，财报公布后股价并未出现明显波动。但透过这份财报，我们能清晰看到，它仍在为整个AI产业链持续注入积极信号，行业向上的趋势未变。关于财报的具体业绩数据，这里不再过多赘述——无论是营收、利润，还是每股收益（EPS）等核心指标，均大幅超出市场预期。笔者在上一篇文章中提到的几个投资者重点关注的关键问题，管理层也给出了部分明确答案，其中最受关注的便是毛利率持续稳定在75%以上，展现出极强的盈利韧性。需求端的火爆态势，依旧是英伟达财报的核心亮点。史无前例的推理需求，已经导致英伟达云端GPU计算能力全面售罄。即便目前新一代Blackwell架构的计算能力已部署达9GW，一款服役6年的Ampere架构产品，依旧保持着极高的市场需求，足以见得AI算力需求的旺盛程度。核心机遇：存储短缺持续凸显，供应商迎来发展红利黄仁勋在财报电话会议中反复强调“AI营收=令牌（tokens）”，这一核心逻辑意味着，AI领域的内存需求只会持续攀升。AI应用对内存的高消耗，已经对整个科技供应链产生了显著影响，而这种需求缺口并非短期现象——内存短缺目前已成为行业显著特征，且在未来三年内大概率会持续凸显，这对于相关存储供应商而言，正是难得的发展机遇。黄仁勋在会议中多次重申“计算/推理=云服务提供商（CSP）营收=令牌”，进一步印证了AI内存需求的刚性增长。另一方面，内存供给的提升却受到严重限制：新建晶圆厂的建设周期长达三年以上，短期内无法实现供给放量，供需失衡的格局难以缓解。具体来看，存储市场的涨价与短缺信号已十分明确：DRAM（动态随机存取内存）和NAND（闪存）价格预计将在2026年第一季度翻倍；数据中心专用的64GB SO-DIMM内存，过去三个季度价格已上涨两倍。麦格理证券（Macquarie Equity）今日发布报告指出，考虑到2027年内存短缺格局仍将持续、英伟达面临的供给受限问题，以及近期HBM的利润率低于普通DRAM（2026年预期HBM营业利润率为60%，而DRAM/NAND为70%-80%），预计明年HBM价格将迎来强劲上涨。麦格理进一步表示，HBM的供给缺口仍将是英伟达硬件技术持续突破的核心瓶颈，而这也将持续为HBM及相关存储供应商带来利好。短缺不止于内存，多环节供应链承压值得注意的是，当前供应链的短缺问题并非仅集中在内存领域，高端PCB（印刷电路板）及相关元器件也出现了供应紧张，尤其是ABF基板、多层板（MLB）、覆铜板（CCL）以及片式多层陶瓷电容器（MLCC）等关键品类，短缺态势较为明显。与此同时，网络设备在数据中心中的占比持续提升，成为另一个重要增长点：英伟达在几年前切入以太网交换机市场，如今已成长为全球最大的以太网网络设备公司之一。英伟达表示，高端扩展型交换机的密度正实现大幅增长——每个机架配备18颗交换芯片，且预计机架搭载量将进一步提升。Meta近期宣布将部署英伟达Spectrum-X交换机，这一动作也预示着，云服务提供商（CSP）对英伟达交换机的采用率将进一步提高。两大新看点：Groq布局与太空数据中心除了现有业务的延续，财报中还透露出两个值得关注的新方向，分别是Groq相关布局与太空数据中心：基于近期与Groq达成的战略授权协议，以及对Groq核心管理团队的“收购式招聘”（acqui-hire），英伟达计划在2026年GTC大会上，公布更多关于LPU或混合推理架构的细节，目标直指低延迟、实时性要求高的智能体AI（Agentic AI）市场。英伟达希望延续过去对Mellanox的生态拓展思路，进一步扩大Groq的生态影响力。英伟达首次提及太空数据中心这一全新概念——这类数据中心与传统数据中心存在本质区别，其优势在于能源供应充足，但受限于重量和散热两大核心难题，未来或将成为行业新的探索方向。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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