下一个万亿赛道“人形机器人”谁主沉浮？现代汽车携“阿特拉斯”叫板特斯拉“擎天柱”

智通财经02-27

当现代汽车公司董事长Euisun Chung在2022年国际消费电子展上携机器狗“Spot”一同登台时，台下有观众问道，公司何时会将名字里的“汽车”二字去掉。现在看来，那个时刻或许已经到来。智通财经APP获悉，在上月于拉斯维加斯举行的CES展上，现代汽车凭借其人形机器人“阿特拉斯”抢尽风头。在这场展示中，这款机器人展现出流畅如人的敏捷性：它能自行起身，在舞台上自如行走，躯干和头部的旋转精准得惊人，...

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Chung在2022年国际消费电子展上携机器狗“Spot”一同登台时，台下有观众问道，公司何时会将名字里的“汽车”二字去掉。现在看来，那个时刻或许已经到来。智通财经APP获悉，在上月于拉斯维加斯举行的CES展上，现代汽车凭借其人形机器人“阿特拉斯”抢尽风头。在这场展示中，这款机器人展现出流畅如人的敏捷性：它能自行起身，在舞台上自如行走，躯干和头部的旋转精准得惊人，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1408036.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLI","symbol_name":"2倍做多TSLA 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Hyundai Motor challenges Tesla's Optimus Prime with Atlas","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLR":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"07766":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSII":0.6},"content_text":"当现代汽车公司董事长Euisun Chung在2022年国际消费电子展上携机器狗“Spot”一同登台时，台下有观众问道，公司何时会将名字里的“汽车”二字去掉。现在看来，那个时刻或许已经到来。智通财经APP获悉，在上月于拉斯维加斯举行的CES展上，现代汽车凭借其人形机器人“阿特拉斯”抢尽风头。在这场展示中，这款机器人展现出流畅如人的敏捷性：它能自行起身，在舞台上自如行走，躯干和头部的旋转精准得惊人，动作极其自然。市场反响热烈，现代汽车的股价在此后两周内飙升了80%。当全球目光聚焦于埃隆·马斯克承诺已久的“擎天柱”机器人以及中美之间的人工智能竞赛时，现代汽车已悄然成为人形机器人领域的领跑者。对于特斯拉(TSLA.US)和现代这样的汽车制造商而言，人形机器人与电动汽车的底层技术几乎如出一辙：都由电池驱动、电机控制，并通过传感器和人工智能进行导航。这使得它们能够利用自身的技术专长和制造能力，在这个摩根士丹利预计到2050年市场规模可达5万亿美元(届时全球可能有超过10亿台人形机器人在使用)的赛道上抢占先机。尽管目前的首要目标是在装配线上使用人形机器人以降低劳动力成本，但随着机器人进入仓储、制造，乃至最终的养老和家庭辅助领域，其潜在市场同样巨大。以生产经济实惠且可靠耐用的汽车而闻名的现代汽车，在2021年收购了“Spot”的开发商波士顿动力公司后，已向其机器人部门投入了数十亿美元，并积极从特斯拉和英伟达等公司招揽顶尖人才。在全球汽车行业剧变的背景下，向机器人领域进军或许是现代汽车的必然选择。随着电动汽车转型遇阻，欧美汽车制造商正蒙受数百亿美元的损失;同时，特朗普政府的关税政策以及中国制造商的崛起，正令现代汽车在全球最大的两个汽车市场承压。此外，尽管多年投入巨资，但其自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车平台的推出屡屡延迟，也给公司带来了压力。从技术角度看，“阿特拉斯”堪称奇迹：它拥有具备触觉感知能力、比例与真人相近的双手，以及可完全旋转的关节。其负载能力高达50公斤，并能在零下20摄氏度至40摄氏度的极端环境中工作。现代汽车计划于2028年首先将“阿特拉斯”部署于高重复性任务，如汽车零部件备料，到2030年再将其应用于更复杂的装配工作。麦格理证券韩国公司的分析师詹姆斯·洪认为，凭借明确的部署时间表以及现代汽车庞大的制造基础设施作为后盾，该公司有望为人形机器人的商业化树立新标杆。“他们拥有合适的要素，也有懂得如何执行的管理团队，”洪表示。“当然，执行力和速度至关重要，但现实情况是，大多数全球汽车制造商甚至一开始就不具备那些基本要素。”分析师们将“阿特拉斯”视为特斯拉“擎天柱”的强大挑战者，理由是前者拥有更优的技术规格，包括更高的负载能力、已为大规模生产做好准备，以及与英伟达和谷歌DeepMind建立的战略合作关系。他们表示，“阿特拉斯”通过全天候运作以及提升生产线上的工人安全与效率，将帮助现代汽车削减约占其营收10%的劳动力成本。当然，不可忽视的是，据研究机构Omdia称，中国制造商目前主导着人形机器人市场，在去年全球出货约1.3万台的人形机器人中，中国企业占据了绝大多数。中国的人形机器人也比西方制造的机型更为便宜，宇树科技最新款机器人售价仅为4900美元，而智元机器人一款简化版的售价约为1.4万美元。成本优势尽管现代汽车尚未公开定价策略，但三星证券分析师Esther Yim表示，波士顿动力公司在CES期间向分析师简报称，该机器人初期售价可能在13万至14万美元之间——这一价位能确保在两年内收回投资成本。Yim补充称，一旦产量超过1万台，价格最多可能下降50%。麦格理证券的洪指出，若价格降至10万美元，“阿特拉斯”的运营成本大约为每小时5.1美元。这低于美国联邦7.25美元的最低时薪，也远低于汽车工厂普遍20至38美元的时薪。他表示，到2028年初步应用时，人形机器人可能取代全球300万至400万名装配工人。正是这些数据让投资者兴奋不已。“阿特拉斯”亮相后的两周内，现代汽车股价被推至历史新高——一度超越通用汽车，成为全球市值第四大的汽车制造商。尽管此后股价从高位有所回落，但本月早些时候，公司发布了一段视频，展示“阿特拉斯”完成侧手翻和后空翻，突显其灵巧度和栩栩如生的动作，这再次提振了股价。DAOL投资证券分析师Yoo Jiwoong指出，“阿特拉斯”50公斤的负载能力使其脱颖而出，相比之下，“擎天柱”和Figure AI的机器人负载能力为20公斤。这使得它成为唯一能在包括重型汽车工厂在内的所有制造场所部署的人形机器人。尽管如此，特斯拉作为端到端平台拥有无需外部帮助的价格优势，而现代汽车则依赖英伟达芯片和第三方AI开发者。DS投资证券分析师Choi TaeYong等人认为，所谓的“英伟达税”以及支付给其他供应商的成本将侵蚀现代汽车的利润率。“但即使特斯拉到2030年能年产100万台人形机器人，也不足以满足全球需求，”Choi表示。“市场需要一个庞大的‘亚军’公司来填补空白并受益于技术外溢效应，而现代汽车正处在这场竞争的最前沿。”KB证券分析师Kang Seongjin等人表示，“阿特拉斯”最新的视频显示，它能从失败的跳跃或不完美的落地中迅速调整，这表明该机器人已达到无需单独现场培训即可部署到工业现场的水平，并具备在现实环境中对突发情况做出独立响应的能力。“现代汽车是最突出的替代者，能够分享长期被特斯拉垄断的自动驾驶和机器人的未来价值，”Kang说。“它拥有清晰的机器人愿景，但市值仅为特斯拉的二十分之一，是投资‘物理人工智能’领域的一个极具吸引力的选择。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2614009360","isCrawlerRequest":true}