2026春节档：80亿AI红包大战落幕，狂欢过后何去何从？

21世纪经济报道02-24

21世纪经济报道记者雷晨　　马年春节，一场烧掉超80亿元的AI“红包大战”落下了帷幕。腾讯、阿里、字节跳动等互联网平台轮番上阵，把这个传统意义上的“抢红包”旺季，彻底变成了一场AI落地全民生活的压力测试。　　各家晒出的战报一个比一个亮眼，但数据背后的行业格局也愈发清晰：头部平台靠着资金、技术和生态的三重壁垒，正在加速收割市场；中小玩家想要挤进通用AI这条赛道，越来越难。而更残酷的考验才刚刚开始——...

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carnival?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABW":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"TCEHY":1.95,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.93,"BABA":1.93,"BABU":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6,"00700":1.95},"content_text":"21世纪经济报道记者雷晨　　马年春节，一场烧掉超80亿元的AI“红包大战”落下了帷幕。腾讯、阿里、字节跳动等互联网平台轮番上阵，把这个传统意义上的“抢红包”旺季，彻底变成了一场AI落地全民生活的压力测试。　　各家晒出的战报一个比一个亮眼，但数据背后的行业格局也愈发清晰：头部平台靠着资金、技术和生态的三重壁垒，正在加速收割市场；中小玩家想要挤进通用AI这条赛道，越来越难。而更残酷的考验才刚刚开始——春节的流量退潮之后，用户是走是留，才是检验这场狂欢的最终标准。　　在业内人士看来，这场春节档的卡位战，不仅影响到AI行业的竞争牌局，也让中国互联网向AI互联网转型的节点，提前到来了。  　　春节档，AI的“全民大考”　　春节向来是互联网平台拉新的黄金窗口。2026年的这个窗口，被赋予了全新的意义——它不再是简单的流量争夺，而是AI技术第一次直面全国用户的“大考”。　　一位大厂高管告诉21世纪经济报道记者，今年春节档的竞争，关系到未来几年企业的前台业务布局乃至投融资格局。可以说，整个行业在春节这一节点所奠定的竞争格局，将直接决定未来“牌桌”上的席位归属。　　正是这种紧迫感，让各大平台不惜重金入局。超80亿元的投入，让这个春节成了AI行业有史以来规模最大的民用测试场。　　过去，春节红包争的是支付场景；今年，争的是AI入口。腾讯、阿里、字节跳动重兵布防，百度、京东、美团、快手也纷纷推出AI互动玩法——所有人都想借着这股春节的流量东风，在AI时代抢下一席之地。　　战报数据确实惊人：腾讯元宝依托微信生态，把AI和社交裂变绑在一起，主会场抽奖超36亿次，拼手气红包发了超1100万次。阿里千问把AI塞进消费场景，带动1.3亿人第一次体验“AI购物”，AI买电影票的订单环比暴涨372倍。字节豆包则靠独家合作央视春晚，拿下了这场较量的“顶流”位置。除夕当天，AI互动量冲到19亿次，生成新春主题头像超5000万张、拜年祝福超1亿条。　　如此战绩背后，是春节前各家密集的技术秀。字节推出Seedance 2.0和豆包大模型2.0，阿里、腾讯也升级了各自的大模型。技术能力的迭代，为这场全民AI体验铺好了路。　　网经社分析师陈礼腾表示：“2026年春节AI红包大战，不只是一组亮眼数据，更是国内AI行业从‘技术比拼’转向‘场景争夺’的信号。”　　过去，大家比的是实验室里的跑分和参数；现在，比的却是AI能不能走进普通人的生活——消费、社交、娱乐，这些日常场景，成了真正的赛场。　　而这场试水也让一个趋势愈发明显：行业正在加速向头部集中。大厂有钱、有技术、有生态，能把AI快速嫁接到既有场景里；中小玩家资源有限，想在通用AI入口分一杯羹，越来越难。　　这意味着，未来的AI竞争格局可能很快尘埃落定，通用型AI助手这个赛道，或许只容得下少数几个头部玩家。　　三强路径：生态不同，打法各异　　在今年的AI春节档里，字节跳动、腾讯、阿里三家稳稳站在了第一梯队。它们各自依托自己的核心生态，走出了三条不同的路，但指向同一个目标：把AI和既有业务深度绑定，完成入口卡位。　　豆包最大的杀手锏，是和央视春晚的独家合作。这个国民级流量入口，让它一次性把全平台的产品和技术，触达到了更广泛的受众。　　技术上，Seedance 2.0的多模态能力和豆包大模型2.0的高并发处理，支撑了头像生成、拜年创作等互动玩法。算力上，火山引擎在除夕当晚扛住了每分钟633亿tokens的峰值吞吐，验证了大模型规模化落地的能力。　　更值得注意的，是豆包不只做了一个独立APP。春晚舞台上的具身智能机器人、抖音直播间的实时字幕、舞台视觉创作——AI能力正在渗透字节的整个生态。　　陈礼腾评价：“豆包依托春晚独家AI合作，凭借超高互动量和多模态玩法强势占领国民心智，把春节流量转化为AI入口认知。”　　阿里的路径更务实——把AI红包直接变成消费引流的工具。淘宝、支付宝构建的成熟消费生态，是千问最大的底气。用户在AI互动中领到的红包，可以直接用于购物、买电影票、订外卖。1.3亿人首次体验AI购物、AI买票订单暴涨372倍，验证了一个关键问题：AI是能带动真实交易的。　　千问的目标，不是做一个单纯的对话助手，而是成为消费决策的辅助工具。把AI入口卡在消费场景里，让用户在用淘宝、用支付宝的时候，自然用上AI——这比单独做一个APP再拉新，效率高得多。　　“阿里千问通过‘免单+消费’组合拳，将红包直接绑定真实消费场景，用巨额投入验证了AI带动交易的可行性。”陈礼腾说。　　腾讯的打法，更像一次“轻骑兵突袭”。微信的社交关系链是元宝最大的护城河。把AI互动塞进群聊、朋友圈，推出拼手气红包、群内AI玩法，借助社交裂变，元宝几乎没花多少流量成本，就完成了海量用户的触达。　　这其实是微信红包当年的老套路——把支付行为嵌入社交关系链，改写移动支付格局。现在，元宝想复刻这个逻辑，让AI互动成为用户日常沟通的一部分。　　陈礼腾认为，腾讯元宝依托微信生态，以社交裂变和群内AI互动稳住基本盘，用低成本完成用户渗透，守住了社交场景的AI入口。　　三条路径，本质都是对自身核心优势的最大化利用。这也成了当前AI行业的核心法则：单纯拼技术没有意义，只有把AI和生态深度融合，才能实现真正的卡位。　　流量退潮后何去何从？　　春节过完，真正的考验才刚刚开始。　　节日期间的海量互动，本质上是“脉冲式流量”。新春头像、拜年祝福、拼手气红包——这些都是节日需求，节日一过，需求就没了。如果AI产品拿不出能解决日常刚需的功能，前期烧掉的80亿，可能只是一场热闹。　　天使投资人郭涛总结了决定用户黏性的三个关键：能不能直击用户真实痛点，形成差异化壁垒；用户数据能不能反哺模型迭代，让产品越用越好；能不能无缝嵌入用户已有的社交、办公、消费生态，降低使用门槛。　　换句话说，春节的玩法只能吸引用户“来一次”，真正让人留下的，是AI能不能解决实际问题。　　安徽财贸学院教授葛晓滨表示：“本次AI红包大战能否留住用户，关键不在红包金额，而在红包之外的产品核心价值。真正能让用户留存的，是AI助手能否融入生活、办公、消费等实际场景，解决真实问题。”　　上述判断和移动互联网时代的历史经验高度吻合。“微信红包能撬动移动支付格局，关键在于把红包嵌入社交关系链，让支付行为自然融入日常沟通。短期流量能否转化为长期价值，核心在于是否与平台高黏性场景形成闭环。”陈礼腾指出。　　各大平台显然也清楚这一点。近期，豆包宣布App、电脑客户端及网页版已上线“专家模式”，接入豆包大模型 2.0 Pro；阿里千问继续深化消费场景；腾讯方面此前表示，元宝正持续迭代更新，未来元宝还将实施更多更新计划。但效果如何，还要看用户买不买账。　　这场留存考题，其实是整个AI行业面临的长期挑战。技术迭代快，不等于产品体验好。回答不准、交互生硬、场景融合流于表面——这些问题在春节数据里被掩盖了，节后会逐渐暴露。　　曹磊表示：“2026年春节AI红包大战，或许将成为中国互联网从移动互联网向AI互联网转型的关键节点。谁能率先建立用户对AI助手的长期依赖，谁就有可能掌握未来十年的数字流量分发权。”　　葛晓滨则预测：“未来AI助手市场会走向差异化多元共存、场景细分竞争的格局，头部玩家凭生态和规模占据主流，中小玩家深耕垂直赛道。AI助手也不再是独立APP，会成为各类终端、软件的底层智能能力。”　　2026年的AI春节档，是一场流量的狂欢，也是一次行业的清醒剂。它让所有人看到了AI全民化的可能性，也让所有人意识到，春节的短期卡位只是开始，长期的用户留存和价值转化才是核心。　　流量退潮之后，谁能真正解决用户问题，谁能实现场景闭环，谁才能在重新定局的AI牌桌上，坐稳自己的位置。未来的AI行业，拼的不是一时热闹，而是长期的能力。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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