英伟达Q4财报核心看点：2027营收、75%毛利率保卫战及中国市场展望

AI产业链研究02-23

英伟达依旧是 AI 赛道无可争议的龙头，但近几周即便台积电与整个供应链交出强劲基本面数据，但股价却表现一般。这也让本周三公布的第四季度财报显得尤为关键 —— 投资者将重点审视管理层对未来几个季度的业绩指引。本文结合高盛（2 月 5 日发布）与瑞银（2 月 10 日发布）的最新前瞻报告，梳理投资者需要重点关注的核心信息。两家机构均维持看多立场，预计英伟达 Q4 业绩将超出市场一致预期：高盛预测营收将...

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赛道无可争议的龙头，但近几周即便台积电与整个供应链交出强劲基本面数据，但股价却表现一般。这也让本周三公布的第四季度财报显得尤为关键 —— 投资者将重点审视管理层对未来几个季度的业绩指引。本文结合高盛（2 月 5 日发布）与瑞银（2 月 10 日发布）的最新前瞻报告，梳理投资者需要重点关注的核心信息。两家机构均维持看多立场，预计英伟达 Q4 业绩将超出市场一致预期：高盛预测营收将超出预期约 20 亿美元，瑞银则预估营收约 675 亿美元，较公司指引高出约 25 亿美元。2027 年营收能见度：核心决定性问题市场最关注的或许并非 Q4 业绩本身，而是管理层对短期未来的展望。正如高盛所言，股价短期表现将取决于 2027 年营收的能见度，因为 2026 年的增长预期已基本被股价充分定价。高盛认为，2026 年上半年英伟达有望迎来多重催化：超大规模云厂商资本开支持续上修，并将延续至 2027 年市场对 OpenAI、Anthropic 等非传统客户的需求信心持续提升基于布莱克韦尔（Blackwell）架构训练的全新大模型表现亮眼，进一步巩固英伟达的技术领先优势瑞银则从供给端切入分析。该行近期上调台积电 CoWoS 先进封装产能预期，预计 2026 年底月产能将从 11 万片提升至 12 万片，英伟达将成为核心受益方。全年维度，瑞银预估行业 CoWoS 总产能将达到 155 万片，较此前预期上调 6%。基于修正后的 CoWoS 产能数据，瑞银预测英伟达 2025 年 GPU 产量为 690 万颗，2026 年升至 950 万颗；而其此前模型预估分别为 570 万颗与 930 万颗。这意味着 2026 年英伟达账面及供应链端将拥有额外库存。竞争格局与 75% 毛利率保卫战行业竞争格局仍是市场焦点，尤其是云厂商自研 ASIC 芯片带来的冲击。高盛预计，谷歌 TPU v7 与 AMD MI455X 将加剧竞争；而瑞银对相关威胁则更为乐观。高盛认为，英伟达会重点强调 CUDA 生态的竞争优势，并关注管理层对近期与 Groq 合作交易、以及该交易对推理成本影响的解读。瑞银则判断，短期没有因素会撼动英伟达 75% 的毛利率指引，意味着其认为自研 ASIC 对英伟达 GPU 主导地位的威胁依然有限。非云厂商客户需求趋势OpenAI 预计 2026 年下半年通过与英伟达、博通、AMD 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