造车新势力2026开年洗牌,AI军备赛打响

21世纪经济报道02-24

2026年开年，新能源汽车市场并未迎来预期的“开门红”，传统淡季叠加政策切换的双重影响，多数新势力车企交付量环比大幅回落，但头部阵营的同比表现呈现剧烈分化，行业格局正迎来新一轮深度洗牌。鸿蒙智行以5.8万辆的销量断层领跑；小米、零跑紧随其后，销量分别超3.9万辆和3.2万辆；而曾经的头部梯队“蔚小理”则集体承压，理想、蔚来月销量在2.7万辆左右，小鹏则刚过2万辆，同比出现显著下滑。在销量承压、竞争...

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begins","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"NIO":1.86,"LI":1.92,"01810":1.9,"XPEV":1.88,"09868":1.88,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"NIO.SI":1.86,"MIUmain":0.6,"02015":1.92,"09927":0.9,"09866":1.86,"XIACY":1.9},"content_text":"2026年开年，新能源汽车市场并未迎来预期的“开门红”，传统淡季叠加政策切换的双重影响，多数新势力车企交付量环比大幅回落，但头部阵营的同比表现呈现剧烈分化，行业格局正迎来新一轮深度洗牌。鸿蒙智行以5.8万辆的销量断层领跑；小米、零跑紧随其后，销量分别超3.9万辆和3.2万辆；而曾经的头部梯队“蔚小理”则集体承压，理想、蔚来月销量在2.7万辆左右，小鹏则刚过2万辆，同比出现显著下滑。在销量承压、竞争白热化的背景下，头部新势力玩家们集体将目光投向了更远的未来——AI与机器人。理想汽车CEO李想近日召集线上全员会，明确理想转型为“具身智能”企业，将汽车和人形机器人定义为统一的“硅基生命”硬件。同时，理想成立了独立团队，急招人才，明确人形机器人是“第二增长极”。小鹏则将2026年定为“物理AI商业化落地的关键一年”，让AI成为驱动汽车、机器人等业务增长的核心引擎。理想汽车认为，2026年是成为AI头部企业的最后窗口期；而未来的终极竞争，是拥有基座模型、自研芯片、操作系统及具身智能全栈能力的少数几家巨头之争。鸿蒙智行、小米领先，排名再洗牌1月，多数车企交付量环比大幅下滑，但同比表现分化加剧。鸿蒙智行以57915辆的交付量断层式领先，同比增长65.6%。鸿蒙智行的优势在于其渠道、品牌与技术的融合，而AITO问界的持续发力成为核心支柱。根据赛力斯披露的数据，1月问界汽车交付量为40016辆，同比增长83%，占比鸿蒙智行总销量的约七成。问界的强势上升，与华为的深度赋能密不可分。鸿蒙智行在2026年设定了更为激进的目标，计划冲击100万-130万辆年度销量。为此将推行“五界齐发、全品类覆盖”战略，联动问界、智界、享界、尊界、尚界五大品牌，计划年内推出超10款新车，覆盖15万-100万元全价格区间，向市场发起全面冲击。小米汽车以超过3.9万辆的交付量紧随其后，但环比下降约22%。小米创办人、董事长兼CEO雷军在近日的直播中解释称：“1月是车市淡季，一般交付量都会比（去年）12月份低。另外，第一代小米SU7已经停售，只有零星的现车、展车在销售。1月份，我们主要交付的新车以YU7为主。”有知情人士向21世纪经济报道记者透露，小米工厂产线正全力为新一代SU7的投产做准备。尽管开年略有起伏，但小米汽车的长期目标依然坚定，2026年全年交付目标为55万辆，而2025年其交付量已超41万辆，超额完成原定30万辆的计划。2025年的新势力销冠零跑汽车，今年1月交付32059辆，虽较去年12月出现明显回落，但基于2025年接近60万辆的年度交付基数，零跑正全力向百万辆年度目标发起冲刺。为实现这一目标，零跑计划在2026年推出多达12款全新车型，覆盖从旗舰MPV D99到大型SUV D19等多个细分品类，以产品矩阵的全面扩张抢占市场份额。“蔚小理”阵营则在1月均未能突破3万辆大关。其中，理想汽车成为头部品牌中少数同比、环比双降的车企，1月交付27668辆，转型阵痛尤为明显。尽管其纯电SUV i6已积累超10万辆订单，却因电池供应瓶颈导致产能爬坡不及预期，拖累了整体交付表现。小鹏汽车1月交付约2万辆，同比下滑34.1%，环比跌幅达46.7%。核心原因在于公司正处于新旧车型切换的“空窗期”。尽管1月密集发布多款新车，但尚未形成有效交付量，市场衔接出现断层。相比之下，蔚来成为“蔚小理”中唯一的亮点，1月交付27182辆，同比大增96.1%。但43.5%的环比跌幅也表明，其未能脱离行业整体下行周期。当前，蔚来正将所有精力押注在“大车”上，预计今年上半年推出蔚来ES9、ES7及子品牌乐道L80三款全新大SUV，试图在高端大型SUV市场开辟新的增长空间。可以预见的是，2026年，造车新势力将开启市场覆盖面的比拼，竞争从单一爆款延伸到全价位、全品类覆盖。无论是蔚来“大车”围剿高端市场、小米从轿车杀入SUV市场，还是鸿蒙智行与零跑的产品海战术，都意味着新势力们在每一个细分市场都将面临更激烈的市场。与此同时，一场AI军备竞赛也已同步打响。理想、小鹏，直接将公司未来定义为AI与机器人公司，而蔚来则将AI视为驱动汽车业务增长的支撑。理想认为2026年是成为AI头部公司的“最后窗口期”。其在内部会提到将推动人形机器人研发，尽快落地亮相。小鹏汽车已将2026年确立为“物理AI商业化落地的关键一年”，有消息称，2026年，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏的目标是量产L3级人形机器人，同时进入商业场景，以此带动小鹏汽车的市值。蔚来汽车CEO李斌则在1月的一次内部会中提到，蔚来将成立公司级“人工智能技术委员会”统筹AI战略。李斌强调推动公司AI体系能力建设，包括在研发、制造、供应链、财务等各环节的应用，通过每个环节的效率提升，实现公司整体竞争力的倍增。“如果AI能够帮助每个环节提效3%，整个公司提效远不止3%。”李斌表示。1月为何没有“开门红”？为何开年车市未迎来“开门红”？这背后是行业淡季、政策转换与企业自身战略调整的三重叠加效应。市场普遍认为，2025年底新能源汽车购置税免征政策截止，提前透支了大量终端需求；而2026年新的以旧换新补贴细则尚未完全落地，导致1月出现明显的消费“空窗期”。乘联分会发布的数据印证了这一趋势：1月1日至18日，全国乘用车零售销量同比下滑28%至67.9万辆，其中新能源汽车销量31.2万辆，同比减少16%。为对冲需求疲软的压力，特斯拉、小米、理想、蔚来等车企在1月打响了“金融战”，纷纷推出长达7年的超低息甚至零息贷款方案。2月1日，蔚来也推出了“7年超低息”金融购车方案，针对蔚来品牌旗下新ET5、ET5T、ES6、EC6，和乐道L60、L90，以及萤火虫品牌。紧接着2月2日，小米汽车宣布旗下车型YU7全系正式推出“7年低息”金融方案，首付门槛为9.99万元起，月供最低不足2000元，试图以降低购车门槛的方式刺激终端消费。不过，对于一季度的市场走势，有长期关注终端市场的人士向记者分析称，由于2025年年末翘尾效应消失的影响，今年一季度销量可能不会出现较大的回落，而是保持正常水平。中国汽车流通协会分析认为，2026年1月汽车消费指数为31.1。受传统春节假期影响，2月车市预计将步入传统淡季，销量环比1月可能进一步回落。中汽协也明确指出，2月汽车市场将进入阶段性调整。这主要受多重因素叠加影响：春节长假减少了有效销售时间；前期促消费政策已透支部分需求；新能源汽车购置税政策退坡的影响仍在持续；同时，部分消费者转而观望节后的新一轮促销及新车上市。这政策衔接尚待完善、市场需求处于调整期的背景下，2026年造车新势力的竞争已然拉开序幕。头部企业凭借技术、渠道与产品矩阵的优势抢占先机，而腰部品牌则面临更大的生存压力。这场围绕全品类布局的“战役”，才刚刚开始。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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