过完年回来，云计算巨头创近20年来最长连跌纪录

维科网云计算观察02-24

维科网云计算观察“这不是结束，甚至不是结束的开始，而可能只是开始的结束。”上一次亚马逊出现如此漫长的下跌，还要追溯到遥远的2006年。当市场的耐心被巨额支出磨尽，连跌九天的K线图成了最直白的质疑。在这轮抛售中，这家科技巨头市值蒸发了超过4500亿美元，相当于跌掉了一个Netflix。一切的导火索，都藏在亚马逊最新公布的资本开支计划里——2026年，公司计划豪掷2000亿美元。这个数字是什么概念？它...

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years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZP":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"AMZD":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"AMZN":1.96,"AMZW":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"AMZU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFT":0.9,"META":0.9},"content_text":"维科网云计算观察“这不是结束，甚至不是结束的开始，而可能只是开始的结束。”上一次亚马逊出现如此漫长的下跌，还要追溯到遥远的2006年。当市场的耐心被巨额支出磨尽，连跌九天的K线图成了最直白的质疑。在这轮抛售中，这家科技巨头市值蒸发了超过4500亿美元，相当于跌掉了一个Netflix。一切的导火索，都藏在亚马逊最新公布的资本开支计划里——2026年，公司计划豪掷2000亿美元。这个数字是什么概念？它比2025年的1310亿美元骤增了53%，也远远超出了华尔街分析师们1466亿美元的温和预期。这笔天量资本开支，将涌向AI基础设施、自研芯片、机器人，乃至低轨道卫星网络。其中，名为“Rainier”的AI基础设施项目是重中之重，亚马逊已为其部署了近50万颗自研的Trainium2芯片，并立下目标，到2026年底，公司30%的AI计算任务要跑在自己的芯片上。值得一提的是，面对市场的惊愕，亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西在财报会上极力安抚：“我们对这些投资的回报充满信心。”然而，投资者用脚投票的背后，是一个更为深刻的行业迷思：那个曾经以“轻资产”、“高毛利”著称的云计算行业，是否正在集体跳入一个“重资产”的陷阱？从“租服务器”到“造电厂”传统云计算的商业模型，曾优雅得像一门艺术。它将庞大的物理服务器资源池化，再像水电一样按需、弹性地“租”给客户。这种模式资本开支可控，现金流充沛，是过去十多年AWS、Azure等业务高歌猛进的核心引擎。但AI大模型的横空出世，彻底撕毁了这张蓝图。训练大模型不是在租用服务器，而是在建造一座专属的“发电厂”。它需要规模空前的GPU集群、遍布全球的边缘计算节点，甚至从芯片级开始的底层自主权。这种转型直接体现在自由现金流上。以亚马逊为例，截至2025年第四季度，过去12个月的自由现金流已锐减至112亿美元，同比暴跌70.7%。摩根士丹利预测，其2026年自由现金流可能转为-170亿美元。过去两年，资本市场的逻辑是“Fear of Missing Out”（错失恐惧症）。只要故事与AI相关，估值就能扶摇直上。然而，进入2026年，情绪陡然切换为“AI-phobia”（AI恐惧症）。当算力成为新的石油，科技巨头们正不惜一切代价抢占油井，但华尔街开始担心，这口井究竟何时能喷出利润的原油。值得关注的是，不止亚马逊遭遇投资者抛售，在所谓的“科技七巨头”中，微软已于1月底率先跌入技术性熊市；Meta股价也从高点回撤近20%。自2026年1月以来，苹果、Alphabet、英伟达、亚马逊和微软这五家的市值合计蒸发已超1.3万亿美元。这是否意味着，狂欢已然散场，算账的时刻到了？没有退路的巨头赌局中美在算力基建上是有差距的，我们太缺了，尤其是推理算力，你看智谱就知道了。这个春节，豆包经受住了考验，调度能力足够好，没有在除夕宕机，但是缺推理算力是特别明显的事情。SD生成视频要6个小时，除夕那两天直接关闭了功能，Ai狂奔的背景下，token消耗是几何级别的增加，太缺算力了，尤其是缺推理算力。所以，算力的搭建更像是一场没有退路的“窒息式竞赛”。亚马逊、微软、谷歌和Meta，这四大云与AI巨头，预计在2026年的总资本支出将史无前例地突破6300亿美元。微软的资本支出在2026财年前两季度已达到725亿美元，近乎其2025全年水平；谷歌母公司Alphabet的指引是1850亿美元。它们的逻辑高度一致：未来，高阶算力将是全球最稀缺的战略资源，即所谓的“计算荒漠”。谁拥有自主可控的算力供应链，谁才能掌握下一个时代的入场券，甚至定价权。有趣的是，在这场全球AI竞赛中，中美科技巨头选择了截然不同的路径。中国的阿里、腾讯、字节跳动等，延续了互联网时代的成功经验：以敏捷的产品和场景创新为核心，通过快速试错、补贴开发者、发放用户红包等方式，从应用端“向上生长”，倒逼底层需求。而美国巨头们，则选择了一场更为彻底的“基建豪赌”。它们试图提前十年修筑最宽阔的“高速公路”，坚信AI将像电力和互联网一样，成为社会的通用技术底座，届时所有“车流”将自然汇入。 这是一种从“基础设施调度权”自上而下构建壁垒的战略自信，但也意味着更沉重的资产负担和更漫长的回报周期。最深刻的冲击，发生在估值逻辑层面。市场恐惧的并非AI的未来，而是其颠覆现有商业模式和带来经济效益的 “时间差”与“新经济学”。一个标志性信号是：微软的远期市盈率近期已降至23倍左右，甚至低于以硬件和服务见长的IBM。这是自2013年以来的首次倒挂。在投资者眼中，背负着沉重AI资本开支和折旧包袱的微软，正在进行一场“永久性的重资产转型”。那个靠软件和订阅服务获得高溢价的微软正在远去，一个更像传统硬件巨头的“新微软”正在被重新定价。这很可能不是短期的股价波动，而是一场估值体系的系统性重构。说回亚马逊，预计到2027年将数据中心容量翻番，坚信这能驱动AWS的下一轮增长。但信心需要时间来兑现，投资者更需要看到实实在在的回报，才能修复那份被巨额开支刺痛的信赖。这正应了丘吉尔那句名言：“这不是结束，甚至不是结束的开始，而可能只是开始的结束。” 云计算行业从“轻资产”到“重资产”的迁移，无疑是一场深刻的“开始的结束”。旧的游戏规则已然失效，而新世界的盈利图景仍在迷雾之中。万亿豪赌的终局，将决定谁是下一个时代的领航者，谁又会成为倒在黎明前的巨人。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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