谷歌副总裁警告：两类人工智能初创公司可能无法生存

鞭牛士Bianews02-22

2月22日消息，据TC报道，生成式人工智能的蓬勃发展几乎每分钟都能催生一家初创公司。但随着尘埃落定，两种曾经炙手可热的商业模式——LLM封装器和人工智能聚合器——如今看起来更像是警示故事。负责谷歌全球创业公司组织（涵盖 Cloud、DeepMind 和 Alphabet）的 Darren Mowry 表示，拥有这些“钩子”的创业公司就像“发动机故障灯”亮着一样。LLM封装器本质上是指那些将现有的...

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和 Alphabet）的 Darren Mowry 表示，拥有这些“钩子”的创业公司就像“发动机故障灯”亮着一样。LLM封装器本质上是指那些将现有的大型语言模型（例如Claude、GPT或Gemini）与产品或用户体验层相结合，以解决特定问题的初创公司。例如，一家利用人工智能帮助学生学习的初创公司。“如果你真的只是指望后端模型来完成所有工作，并且你几乎只是简单地贴牌生产该模型，那么业界已经对此没有多少耐心了。”莫瑞在本周的《股权》节目中说道。莫瑞表示，将“非常薄弱的知识产权包裹在 Gemini 或 GPT-5 上”表明你没有实现差异化。他表示，初创公司要想“发展壮大”，就必须拥有深而宽的护城河，这些护城河要么是横向差异化的，要么是针对特定垂直市场的独特优势。例如，Cursor（一款基于GPT的编码助手）和Harvey AI（一款法律人工智能助手）就是拥有深护城河的LLM封装型产品。换句话说，初创公司不能再指望像2024年中期OpenAI推出ChatGPT应用商店时那样，简单地给GPT加上一个用户界面就能获得市场认可。如今的挑战在于如何打造可持续的产品价值。AI聚合器是封装器的一个子集——它们是初创公司，将多个LLM（生命周期模型）聚合到一个接口或API层中，以便在不同模型之间路由查询，并使用户能够访问多个模型。这些公司通常会提供一个编排层，其中包括监控、治理或评估工具。例如：AI搜索初创公司Perplexity或开发者平台OpenRouter，它们都通过单个API提供对多个AI模型的访问。虽然这些平台中的许多都取得了进展，但莫瑞的话对新来的创业公司来说很明确：“远离聚合业务。”总的来说，聚合器如今并没有看到多少增长或进步，他说，这是因为用户希望“内置一些知识产权”，以确保他们能够根据自身需求在正确的时间被引导到正确的模型——而不是因为幕后的计算或访问限制。莫瑞在云计算领域耕耘数十年，先后在亚马逊云服务（AWS）和微软积累经验，之后加入谷歌云，他见证了云计算行业的发展历程。他表示，如今的形势与2000年代末/2010年代初云计算起步阶段的情况如出一辙，当时亚马逊的云计算业务刚刚起步。当时，涌现出一批转售AWS基础设施的初创公司，它们将自己定位为更便捷的入门途径，并提供工具、账单整合和技术支持。但随着亚马逊构建了自己的企业级工具，客户也学会了直接管理云服务，大多数这类初创公司都被挤出了市场。最终存活下来的，只有那些提供真正服务的公司，例如安全、迁移或DevOps咨询。如今，随着模型提供商自身扩展到企业功能领域，人工智能聚合商也面临着类似的利润压力，这可能会使中间商失去市场。莫瑞本人则非常看好 Vibe 编码和开发者平台，这些平台在 2025 年取得了破纪录的增长，像 Replit、Lovable 和 Cursor 这样的初创公司（据莫瑞称，它们都是 Google Cloud 的客户）吸引了大量投资和客户。莫瑞还预计，直接面向消费者的技术领域将迎来强劲增长，这些公司会将一些强大的AI工具直接交付给消费者。他指出，电影和电视专业的学生可以利用谷歌的AI视频生成器Veo来创作生动的故事。除了人工智能之外，莫里还认为生物技术和气候技术正迎来发展良机——无论是风险投资涌入这两个行业，还是初创公司能够获取“海量数据”来创造真正的价值，“以我们以前从未能够做到的方式”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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