【芯闻前沿】EUV光刻机2026年产能已满！

物理微电子前沿...02-21

最新产业研究指出，2025年至2027年间，全球晶圆厂设备支出总额预计达到1560亿美元，较2022年至2024年阶段显著增长约四成以上。与以往周期性复苏不同，本轮扩张更具结构性特征，AI相关制程与封装技术成为资本开支的核心引擎。多家国际设备龙头已率先释放积极信号。ASML、Applied Materials、Lam Research、Tokyo Electron以及KLA均同步上调资本支出与产能...

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ACC"},"translate_title":"[Xinwen Frontier] EUV lithography's production capacity will be full in 2026!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"STSM":0.6,"INTC":0.9,"03145":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"00981":0.9,"ASMU":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"ASML":1.95,"03165":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"TSM":0.9,"TSMX":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6},"content_text":"最新产业研究指出，2025年至2027年间，全球晶圆厂设备支出总额预计达到1560亿美元，较2022年至2024年阶段显著增长约四成以上。与以往周期性复苏不同，本轮扩张更具结构性特征，AI相关制程与封装技术成为资本开支的核心引擎。多家国际设备龙头已率先释放积极信号。ASML、Applied Materials、Lam Research、Tokyo Electron以及KLA均同步上调资本支出与产能规划。多家厂商透露，手中订单能见度已延伸至2027年，部分关键设备甚至提前锁定产能，显示客户对未来需求高度乐观。从投资结构来看，增长重心正快速向AI相关技术倾斜。高频宽存储堆叠、先进封装与环绕式闸极架构成为主要拉动力。与HBM、CoWoS及GAA制程相关的设备需求占整体支出的比例，将由过去约一成多跃升至超过三成，成为设备商最重要的成长来源。尤其在高算力芯片持续升级背景下，先进封装与逻辑-存储整合需求大幅提高，对沉积、刻蚀与检测设备形成持续拉动。个别企业的订单状况更加直观地体现出这一趋势。ASML的EUV与High-NA EUV光刻机2026年产能已基本排满，其中High-NA机型单价高达3.8亿美元，客户涵盖TSMC、Intel与Samsung Electronics。这意味着先进逻辑制程的竞赛仍在加速，顶级晶圆厂对下一代光刻技术的投入毫不手软。应用材料在先进封装领域的表现同样亮眼。随着CoWoS与Chiplet需求持续升温，公司相关设备营收预期大幅增长，成为整体业绩的重要支柱。先进封装不再只是后段工序，而是与前段制程并列的核心竞争环节。区域布局方面，美国正成为设备投资的新焦点。亚利桑那州、得州与纽约州的新建晶圆厂项目带动设备采购大幅增长，包括台积电亚利桑那Fab 21厂、三星得州泰勒厂以及英特尔18A制程产线建设，都明显推升本土设备商订单。部分厂商预计，美国市场营收占比将在未来几年显著提升，甚至超过中国大陆市场。尽管如此，中国大陆仍保持全球第二大半导体设备市场地位。成熟制程扩产持续推进，28nm及以上工艺投资维持高位，带动DUV光刻机、刻蚀与薄膜沉积设备需求稳定增长。中芯国际等企业在成熟节点持续扩建产能，为设备商提供稳固订单来源。不过，在先进制程领域，受出口限制影响，EUV设备几乎无法进入中国大陆市场，对整体成长构成一定约束。整体而言，本轮设备投资周期与以往不同之处在于，其核心驱动力并非单纯消费电子复苏，而是AI基础设施的长期扩张。数据中心、生成式人工智能模型以及高性能计算平台的持续升级，使得晶圆厂必须提前布局更高端制程与封装能力。设备厂商由此获得前所未有的订单能见度与增长确定性。当1560亿美元资本支出逐步落地，全球半导体产业格局或将迎来新一轮洗牌。谁能在EUV、High-NA、先进封装与GAA等关键技术节点占据优势，谁就将在未来算力时代中掌握更强的话语权。AI驱动下的设备狂潮，正在把晶圆厂推向一个全新的竞争高度。源自：整理自网络，仅用于交流学习，侵删推荐阅读卡脖子技术之1————国内外光刻机水平差距介绍大幅提升速率的5G的关键性技术原理竟然这么简单！看完你就懂了5G网络为什么这么快？看完你就懂了中国芯片行业急缺 30 万人才，为什么大学毕业生八成以上却在转行？全球首发！中国电科38所毫米波芯片刷新记录！突发！中国购EUV光刻机，美国使坏！关注物理微电子前沿科普获取更多有价值的前沿芯闻和科普喜欢的朋友，欢迎转发！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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