量增价稳，结构亮点凸显——春节假期消费观察

一瑜中的02-23

文：华创证券首席经济学家张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001）联系人：陆银波（15210860866）袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43）报告摘要今年春节假期，零售餐饮数据高增（前四天同比+8.6%），或直接拉动前两个月社零数据。分量价看，或呈现量增价稳，出行的量继续提升，机酒价格趋于稳定。分领域看，结构性亮点不少，中高端商品消费（黄金、免税）、国内外旅行韧性凸显，智能化、健康化消费成新趋势。...

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Yuen43）报告摘要今年春节假期，零售餐饮数据高增（前四天同比+8.6%），或直接拉动前两个月社零数据。分量价看，或呈现量增价稳，出行的量继续提升，机酒价格趋于稳定。分领域看，结构性亮点不少，中高端商品消费（黄金、免税）、国内外旅行韧性凸显，智能化、健康化消费成新趋势。整体数据：春节假期消费数据高增，或拉动社零数据据商务大数据显示，假期前四天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较去年可比数据增长8.6%，明显高于去年国庆中秋（下称双节）的2.7%。2023年以来，春节、五一、国庆（中秋）等节假日消费数据与当月社零增速的联动性持续增强，由此判断，今年前两个月社零数据或也将受到提振。出行量增：跨区域出行增速抬升，水运表现尤为亮眼2月13日-2月21日九天（腊月二十六到正月初五），全社会跨区域人员流动量较去年同期增长8.7%，去年中秋国庆假期同比增速为6.3%。分结构看，首先是与中长途旅行相关的民航、铁路有所改善。其次，假期水路增速大幅提升至28.5%（去年双节期间增速约4%），可能受旅游观光需求增加、邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖以及海南全岛封关等多因素影响。价格趋稳：重点领域价格涨跌互现，整体相对稳定今年春节假期，价格层面表现可能相对较好的是以茅台为代表的高端白酒、热门小城市酒店、机票价格。可能有所下跌的是一线城市酒店（集中返乡加上供给充裕）、电影（创近五年新低）。结构亮点：中高端与服务消费韧性凸显，智能化健康化成消费新趋势今年春节假期，消费结构亮点体现在三方面：一是黄金和海南免税为代表的中高端消费品。对于黄金，除婚嫁等刚需推动外，近期多家黄金品牌宣布将于2月底至3月调价，部分消费者可能在假期提前集中下单。对于免税商品，假期前四天海南离岛免税销售增长20.9%，较去年双节的13.6%进一步抬升。二是国内游、跨境游维持热度。国内游方面，酒店住宿成交额、机票预订量均维持景气。跨境游方面，预计全国口岸日均出入境旅客将维持双位数增长。三是智能化、健康化消费成新趋势。春节假期，智能穿戴设备、即时零售、有机食品受到消费者青睐。重点平台智能穿戴设备销售额（如智能眼镜）、淘宝闪购等平台销售额均实现双位数甚至以上增长。每周经济观察：（一）景气向上1、耐用品消费：节前乘用车零售增速大幅回升。2月前8日，乘用车零售同比增长54%。1月全月同比下降13.9%。2、地产：商品房住宅销售面积改善。截至2月15日当周，有数据的27城商品房住宅成交面积同比+5%，1月为-16%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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