马斯克“放卫星”：星舰每年将发射超过10000颗卫星

观察者网02-21

（文/万肇生编辑/张广凯） 2月20日，特斯拉、SpaceX创始人马斯克又开始描绘“美好愿景”，他表示未来“星舰每年将发射超过10000颗卫星”。上述言论是马斯克在回复境外社交平台“X”（原 Twitter）上某科技博主言论时提出的，当时该博主表示，“星链卫星在轨数量最快将于下月突破1万颗”。那么，每年发射一万颗卫星是什么概念？根据联合国外层空间事务厅的数据，自人类进入太空时代以来，截至...

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Twitter）上某科技博主言论时提出的，当时该博主表示，“星链卫星在轨数量最快将于下月突破1万颗”。 那么，每年发射一万颗卫星是什么概念？ 根据联合国外层空间事务厅的数据，自人类进入太空时代以来，截至2025年初，全球累计发射的卫星总数大约在15000颗左右。马斯克的这一计划意味着星舰一年的发射量，就接近甚至超过人类过去几十年发射卫星的总和。 目前星舰的近地轨道设计运力约在150吨、地球同步轨道为100吨。以SpaceX正在部署的第二代星链为准，其中全尺寸版卫星重量预估在1.25吨，优化后的Mini版则为0.5-0.8吨。 因此，理论上星舰最多可携带约100颗星链二代卫星。这也与第三代星舰（V3）版本预期目标相当，即一次性将100颗星链卫星送上太空。 星舰部署星链卫星概念图。SpaceX 马斯克曾在去年3月披露过，第三代星舰组合体已在完善设计，2026年有信心实现100吨的有效载荷送入轨道，并且具备完全重复使用能力，然后在12个月内实现每周一次发射的频率。 如果单从纯数字角度计算，星舰V3每次满载100颗卫星，也需要一年发射100次，即3.65天就要发射一次。这距离马斯克自己预计的到2027年前后实现每周发射一次，也仍有一定距离。 星舰V3配备的猛禽3代发动机（右1），与代发动机对比图 需要注意的是，猎鹰9号经过十余年的迭代才达到今天的可靠性和频次。而星舰需要在极短时间内走完这段路，并将发射频次迅速爬坡到每年100次，这将是一个巨大工程挑战。 但若实现每年发射万颗卫星目标，将继续强化SpaceX在商业航天领域的霸主地位。 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