巴菲特卸任前的“收山之作”揭晓，从持仓变化传递出哪些信息？

郭施亮02-18

从2025年12月31日开始，股神巴菲特正式卸任伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官，并且由格雷格.阿贝尔接任。虽然巴菲特卸任首席执行官后仍未完全脱离伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，但随着格雷格.阿贝尔的接任，意味着2026年伯克希尔哈撒韦已经全面进入格雷格.阿贝尔时代，巴菲特时代也基本上告一段落了。2025年Q4是巴菲特卸任前的“收山之作”，从Q4的持仓数据分析，巴菲特的持仓变动较大，但主要集中在减持，只有少量股票...

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What messages did he convey from the changes in positions?","themeId":"4a02474abe00e4aa893cf97a8e2d80f2","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZY":0.6,"AMZN":0.9,"AMZW":0.6,"BRKU":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"BRKD":0.6,"BRKW":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"BRKC":0.6,"AMZD":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"AZYY":0.6,"BRK.B":1.5,"BRK.A":1.5,"AMZU":0.6},"content_text":"从2025年12月31日开始，股神巴菲特正式卸任伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官，并且由格雷格.阿贝尔接任。虽然巴菲特卸任首席执行官后仍未完全脱离伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，但随着格雷格.阿贝尔的接任，意味着2026年伯克希尔哈撒韦已经全面进入格雷格.阿贝尔时代，巴菲特时代也基本上告一段落了。2025年Q4是巴菲特卸任前的“收山之作”，从Q4的持仓数据分析，巴菲特的持仓变动较大，但主要集中在减持，只有少量股票获得巴菲特的增持。（伯克希尔25年Q4持仓）在减持部分，主要牵涉到苹果、美国银行以及亚马逊等上市公司。其中，苹果和美国银行的减持力度较大。以苹果公司为例，伯克希尔四季度减持苹果股票超过1029万股，持仓数环比减少4.3%，在伯克希尔的投资组合中，苹果的持股比例从之前的22.69%下降至22.60%。然而，截至目前，苹果依然是伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合的第一重仓股。以美国银行为例，四季度伯克希尔减持美国银行接近5080万股，持股占比降至7%以内。然而，与24年的持股数量相比，25年Q4伯克希尔哈撒韦对美国银行的持股数量已经大幅降低至约5.17亿股，一年多的时间减持近半。除此以外，同属科技巨头的亚马逊，也遭遇到伯克希尔哈撒韦的减持。从25年Q4的持仓数据显示，亚马逊被伯克希尔哈撒韦大幅减持，较三季度的持仓比例环比下降约0.63%。在增持部分，伯克希尔哈撒韦采取了谨慎增持的策略，增持的对象涉及雪佛龙、Chubb与达美乐。其中，雪佛龙作为伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合的第五大持仓股，此次增持或有进一步押注石油能源的动作。此外，作为伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合第七大持仓股的西方石油，并未有增持或减持的动作，但西方石油在伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合的持仓比例已经从4.68%降低至3.97%。雪佛龙的持仓比例则从之前的7.09%提升至7.24%。在Q4持仓数据中，伯克希尔哈撒韦还小幅增持了纽约时报，但此次建仓的金额，只占伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合的0.13%，建仓力度不算很大。截至25年Q3，伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金及等价物已经攀升至3817亿美元，该现金储备规模继续创出历史新高。从巴菲特Q4的持仓数据分析，依然是减持占了大头，巴菲特仍在为新任首席执行官预留更好的现金储备，为公司的新接任者铺好路。除了为格雷格.阿贝尔铺路之外，从伯克希尔哈撒韦的持仓变化来看，还为我们传递出一些重要信息。谈及巴菲特，我们不得不联想起巴菲特指数。所谓巴菲特指数，指的是当美股总市值与GDP的比例接近200%的时候，往往预示着市场已经进入到高度投机的区域，在此比例之上参与股票投资，潜在的投资风险较大。截至26年2月，巴菲特指数已经攀升至220%左右，已经远高于投机区域的范围。从巴菲特大量减持重仓股、大幅增加现金储备的举措来看，巴菲特或对未来美股市场的投资前景保持谨慎的态度。巴菲特腾出大量的现金，或为未来美股市场的大幅波动提前做好应对准备。除此以外，从最近一年伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资举动分析，对科技股、金融股的减持力度较大，对能源股的投资态度相对乐观。或许，从巴菲特的角度考虑，或对估值不便宜的科技股、金融股逐渐采取获利了结的策略，若26年全球地缘局势持续紧张，则对能源股等核心资产或带来较好的投资机会。巴菲特卸任前的“收山之作”揭晓，从总体持仓来看，在伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资组合中，前十大重仓股的持仓情况没有发生太大的变动，基本上围绕着消费、金融、能源等核心领域，过去数十年巴菲特的投资风格基本上没有太大的变化。随着格雷格.阿贝尔时代的开启，伯克希尔哈撒韦会继续延续巴菲特的投资风格还是开启全新的投资风格，26年第一份财报将会揭晓答案。（视频号 亮眼看财经）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612922564","isCrawlerRequest":true}