2026春节，巨头为何豪掷45亿疯狂补贴AI支付？腾讯、阿里战略路线的核心逻辑

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2026 年的春节，历史的既视感扑面而来。巨头们又一次在春节撒钱，总金额超过 45 亿。这个数字，是 2014 年打车大战最疯狂时滴滴与快的补贴总和的两倍多，是 2015 年微信红包偷袭珍珠港时 5 亿投入的 9 倍，也超过了 2019 年百度在春晚豪掷 10 亿的巅峰。这一次，所有玩家都在做同一件事：让你说一句话就能付钱。这很不寻常。支付这件事，明明已经被二维码解决得很好了。掏出手机，解锁，打开...

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The core logic of Tencent and Ali's strategic routes","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":0.9,"00700":1.92,"TCEHY":1.92,"BABA":1.94,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6,"09988":1.94},"content_text":"2026 年的春节，历史的既视感扑面而来。巨头们又一次在春节撒钱，总金额超过 45 亿。这个数字，是 2014 年打车大战最疯狂时滴滴与快的补贴总和的两倍多，是 2015 年微信红包偷袭珍珠港时 5 亿投入的 9 倍，也超过了 2019 年百度在春晚豪掷 10 亿的巅峰。这一次，所有玩家都在做同一件事：让你说一句话就能付钱。这很不寻常。支付这件事，明明已经被二维码解决得很好了。掏出手机，解锁，打开 APP，对准扫码，叮。想要支付得更快点，还可以刷卡或者 NFC 碰一碰。为什么 AI 公司非要用一种更复杂的技术，去替代一个已经足够简单的动作？他们到底在抢什么？要回答这个问题，我们要先从 2025 年冬天发生的一场意外说起。被扼杀的豆包手机2025 年 12 月 1 日，豆包手机上线。它由字节跳动与中兴联合打造，野心勃勃，试图成为一个超级 AI 管家。在它的设想中，用户不再需要打开任何 APP，只需要对手机说话，AI 就能代替你操作一切，比如点外卖、打车、转账、订机票。它成为那个统一所有服务的中枢神经系统。然而，一场风暴很快席卷而来。上线不久后，大量用户反映，用豆包手机登录微信时，会收到阻止登录的弹窗，部分账号甚至被短暂封禁。随后，阿里系应用开始集体“拒绝服务”。淘宝、闲鱼、大麦都对豆包手机关上了大门。战火蔓延至金融领域。建设银行、农业银行等多家银行的 APP，在检测到豆包手机的 AI 助手运行时，会弹出安全警告并强制退出。短短数日，一款被寄予厚望的 AI 手机，被整个互联网驱逐了。豆包手机到底做错了什么？它只是想让用户更方便一点，为什么会遭遇如此严厉的封锁？因为它动了一个十年来的铁律：流量必须在我的生态内闭环。从 2013 年微信支付上线，到 2023 年，中国互联网经历了超级 APP 时代的黄金十年。在这十年里，微信、支付宝、淘宝、美团们，通过一场场惨烈的圈地运动，构建起一座座看似密不透风的数字帝国。它们是生活广场，也是信息监狱。你可以在城堡里享受一切便利，但想把一家的东西搬到另一家，对不起，不行。淘宝的商品链接至今无法在微信里直接打开，抖音的视频也无法分享到朋友圈，这都是这座数字城墙最直观的体现。与豆包手机的遭遇形成鲜明对比的，是阿里的千问能在春节 6 天里，气定神闲地完成 1.2 亿笔订单，因为它本身就生长在一个封闭的庞大生态内。千问的特权与阿里的内部革命春节期间，你在千问里下的每一单，背后调用的都是阿里自家的部队，点外卖调用的是饿了么或淘宝闪购，支付走的是支付宝，订酒店接的是飞猪，打车连的是高德。所有环节都在阿里庞大的商业体系内丝滑流转，形成一个完美的闭环。阿里用 AI 这根针，把自己过去二十年积累的所有业务线，如电商、支付、物流、本地生活、地图、文娱等等，像串珍珠一样串了起来，变成了一个统一的、无缝的超级 Agent，用户不再需要在淘宝、飞猪、高德之间来回跳转，只需要和千问这一个入口对话。千问 C 端事业群总裁吴嘉在一次采访中坦言，千问的独特优势就在于“Qwen 最强模型”与“阿里最丰富生态”的结合。他同时透露，千问计划在半年内打通整个阿里生态，未来会持续规划引入第三方伙伴。请注意这个措辞，持续规划。这意味着，在可预见的未来，千问依然会优先在自己的一亩三分地里精耕细作。所谓的开放，更像是一句写在遥远未来的客套话。对比豆包与千问，豆包想做的是横向打通，让一个 AI 调用所有巨头的服务。而千问做的是纵向整合，让一个 AI 调用自己生态内的所有服务。前者是挑战者，试图建立新秩序；后者是守成者，在旧秩序里优化效率。这让人想起 1990 年代的 PC 互联网时代。当网景浏览器试图挑战微软 Windows 的操作系统霸权时，微软通过将 IE 浏览器与 Windows 捆绑，最终扼杀了这个曾经的王者。在绝对的生态优势面前，任何试图一统江湖的努力，都可能被视为必须扼杀在摇篮里的野心。那么问题来了，如果每个巨头都在自己的城墙内搞 AI Agent，那十年前的超级 APP 时代和现在，到底有什么不同？难道只是把一堆 APP，换成了一个 AI 入口吗？从圈地到养鱼不同之处在于，竞争的颗粒度变了。超级 APP 时代，从 2013 年到 2023 年，竞争的核心是圈地，抢占用户手机桌面，让用户在我的 APP 里生活。微信占据社交，淘宝占据电商，美团占据外卖。每个 APP 都是一个数字领地，用户在不同领地之间迁徙。巨头们争夺的是你的时间，是让你尽可能久地停留在它的领地内。而 AI 时代，竞争的核心是养鱼，也就是接管用户的“意图”，让用户在我的 AI 里思考。用户不再需要打开 APP，只需要表达意图，AI 代为执行。竞争从争夺使用时长，升级成更加血腥的决策权的争夺。让我们回到那个最常见的场景：点一杯咖啡。在过去，你想要喝一杯咖啡，需要经历一个虽然熟练但依然繁琐的流程：解锁手机，找到外卖 APP，打开它，在搜索框输入“咖啡”，浏览琳琅满目的店铺列表，点进一家，选择口味、杯型，加入购物车，再跳转到购物车页面，确认商品，填写地址，选择支付方式，最后点击确认下单，整个过程需要十几次点击。而现在，你只需要对千问说一句：“帮我点一杯常喝的美式。”接下来的几十秒里，AI 会自动定位你的位置，根据你的历史订单推荐你常喝的品牌，匹配最大力度的优惠券，生成订单并完成支付。你什么都不用做，只需要等待咖啡送上门。区别从表面看是步骤和时间，但本质是决策权的转移。商业巨头们从引诱你做决策，变成了替你做决策。1937 年，诺贝尔奖得主罗纳德·科斯在他的论文《企业的性质》中提出了一个根本问题：如果市场是最高效的，为什么还需要“企业”这种看起来笨重的组织？他的答案是：因为市场交易有成本，包括寻找交易对手的成本、谈判和签订契约的成本、执行和监督的成本。一部商业史，就是一部与交易成本不断搏斗的历史。从百货商店到连锁超市，从电商平台到移动支付，每一次商业模式的巨大飞跃，都是因为它大幅降低了某一个环节的交易成本。而 AI Agent 的出现，是历史上第一次，试图将所有环节的交易成本压缩到无限接近于零，特别是那个最顽固的、藏在大脑里的“决策成本”。意图的定价当决策权本身都可以被 AI 代理时，商业的终局，就变成了为用户的“意图”定价。过去，我们为商品付费——一杯咖啡 30 元。后来，我们为服务付费——外卖配送费 5 元。未来，我们将为“一个被完美满足的意图”付费——下午三点，在我犯困的时候，喝到一杯我最喜欢口味的、性价比最高的咖啡。AI 卖给你的，不再是一杯咖啡，而是一个被完美满足的下午。这个看似遥远的未来，在 2026 年的春节，已经露出了清晰的轮廓。短短 6 天里，用户对千问说了 41 亿次“千问帮我”，最终完成了 1.2 亿笔订单。平均每 34 次意图表达，才产生 1 笔交易。那剩下的 33 次失败的对话，去了哪里？它们没有消失，而是被 AI 作为养料吸收了。AI 在学习、理解、记忆这些未能被满足的意图，以便在下一次，能更精准地捕捉你的欲望。更值得关注的，是那 156 万通过千问第一次体验外卖服务的老年人。这个数字背后，是一个被移动互联网时代遗忘的庞大群体。他们不会用复杂的 APP，搞不懂繁琐的优惠券，但在“对话”这个人类最古老的交互方式面前，技术门槛被瞬间夷平。技术第一次主动弯下腰，去找回那些被时代遗忘的人。回望商业发展史，我们能发现这本身也是一部“意图捕捉”的发展史。从 1990 年代的搜索引擎（Google），到 2000 年代的电商平台（淘宝），到 2010 年代的超级 APP（微信），再到今天的 AI Agent，每一次革命，都是对人类意图理解的又一次深化。那么，在这场注定将重塑未来商业形态的意图争夺战中，全球的玩家们，会走向何方？两条路线的战略分野全球的 AI Agent 发展，正沿着两条截然不同的路径演进。这没有优劣之分，而是由各自的市场结构和历史路径决定的战略选择。第一条路是纵向一体化的生态围城。以阿里、腾讯等拥有完整“模型+场景+交易”闭环的巨头为代表，其核心逻辑是利用 AI 将自身庞大的商业生态（电商、支付、社交、出行、娱乐）深度整合，打造一个体验无缝、数据闭环的超级 Agent。用户在一个 AI 入口内，可以调动整个集团军的力量。这种模式的战略优势在于用户体验极致流畅，数据飞轮效应最强，商业闭环完整。在成熟的、竞争激烈的存量市场中，这是利用自身优势加固护城河的必然选择。第二条路是横向标准化的开放联邦。以 OpenAI、Google 等拥有强大模型能力，但缺乏完整商业闭环的巨头为代表，其核心逻辑是试图建立一套通用的技术标准或协议（如 Agent Payments Protocol），让 AI 可以跨平台、跨生态地调用第三方服务，形成一个松散的联邦。这种模式的战略优势在于理论上可以打破生态壁垒，为用户提供更广泛的选择，潜力巨大。然而，它面临强大的现实阻力。生态巨头出于保护自身商业利益和数据安全的考虑，天然抵制这种外部调用，豆包手机的遭遇便是最直接的证明。纵向一体化追求的是极致的效率和控制，如同苹果的 iOS 生态，体验顺滑但体系封闭。横向标准化追求的是广泛的兼容和选择，如同早期的安卓生态，体验参差但充满可能性。从 1990 年代的浏览器大战，到 2000 年代的即时通讯大战，再到 2010 年代的移动支付大战，每一次，拥有更完整商业闭环和更强控制力的一方，往往能在竞争中占据优势。互联网不是在变得更开放，而是在变得更封闭。只是封闭的单位，从 APP 升级成了 AI。尾声现在，我们可以回到开篇的那个问题了：当支付动作本身变得多余，巨头们到底在抢什么？答案是他们在抢意图的优先处理权。2026 年春节，这 45 亿补贴不是在买“支付”，而是在买“意图”。每一次你对 AI 说话，每一次你表达需求，都是一次意图的暴露。谁能捕捉更多意图，谁能更高效地满足这些意图，谁就能在未来的商业战争中占据绝对的主动。这是一场关于未来十年商业入口的战争。就像 2014 年的春节红包大战，微信用区区 5 亿红包就撬动了移动支付的庞大入口；2026 年的春节 AI 大战，巨头们用 45 亿补贴撬动的，是那个更深、更底层的意图入口。2026 年的春节，只是这场战争的开端。未来五年，我们将看到更多的 AI 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