摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了

华尔街见闻02-18

该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612490333?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-18 11:56","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2612490333","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 11:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BWXC8680.SGD","symbol_name":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829","article_id":"2612490333","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612490333","pubTimestamp":1771387009,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","TNA":"罗素2000指数三倍做多ETF-Direxion","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","IWN":"罗素2000价值股指数ETF-iShares","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","IWO":"罗素2000成长股指数ETF","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","SNOW":"Snowflake","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","TZA":"罗素2000指数三倍做空ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","WDAY":"Workday","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","CRM":"赛富时","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4207":"综合性银行","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","RWM":"罗素2000指数反向ETF","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","UWM":"罗素2000指数ETF两倍做多","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","TWM":"罗素2000指数两倍做空ETF","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","SRTY":"罗素2000指数三倍做空ETF-ProShares","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","NOW":"ServiceNow","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"JPMorgan Chase Trading Desk: The \"sell first and then ask\" AI sell-off in U.S. stocks is coming to an end, and it's time to buy software stocks at the bottom","themeId":"69356ffab2b8ef283ffd8037a18dedd9","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a151086b349bed134eed061a0c14f99","symbols_score_info":{"WDAY":2,"CRWD":2,"IWN":0.6,"NOW":2,"RWM":0.6,"CRM":2,"TZA":0.6,"SHOP":2,"TNA":0.6,"IGV":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"UWM":0.6,"SRTY":0.6,"SNOW":2,"TWM":0.6,"MNDY":2,"IWO":0.6},"content_text":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”市场在多个行业反应过度摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。抄底软件股？摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：核心主题：继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。对冲风险：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。自身操作：交易台正在执行多头策略，做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612490333","isCrawlerRequest":true}