国海证券：港股互联网龙头普遍具备性价比关注腾讯控股、阿里巴巴等

陈梦竹海外研究...02-18

一、2025年初以来恒生科技板块估值持续回升，10月以来有所震荡，互联网龙头公司估值普遍具备性价比以AI大模型为核心的新一轮竞争，受到Deepseek开源及模型普惠化带来商业化ROI改善，国产AI迎来估值重塑，龙头互联网平台是本轮的中坚力量，兼具AI大模型能力+capex投入（包括支持国产算力）、人才投入能力+应用能力等，带来年初以来恒生科技板块估值的持续回升，但由于海外流动性、宏观环境、公司...

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PS-TTM为1.99倍，处于历史均值以上0.2倍标准差。二、资金角度：南向资金持续加速流入，美国降息对港股流动性有下限支撑，但市场表现可能呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，资金或更关注盈利或科技业务兑现2025年以来南向资金持续加速流入，消费、科技、医药配置占比同比明显提升。互联网公司港股通持股占比均有不同程度的提升，截至2025年12月31日，腾讯从2025年初的10.1%提升至11%；快手从11.61%提升至16.64%；美团从10.4%上升至20.76%；金蝶从24.22%上升至28.22%。2026年海外流动性可能呈现“上半年更宽松、下半年不确定性上升”的节奏：联储保险式降息主要集中在上半年，随后大概率转入观望；在美联储降息预期逐步兑现、但资产负债表扩张受限、各国利率政策走向分化的背景下，流动性更可能支撑核心资产估值下限，市场表现将进一步呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，投资回报更多来自盈利兑现而非流动性溢价。三、互联网行业用户流量趋于稳定，龙头公司战略重点转向高质量增长，生成式AI正在成为新的驱动力，持续看好AI等科技业务兑现带来的估值重塑从互联网行业来看，整体流量已经趋于稳定，但AI APP及PC、网站端用户体量正在形成规模，流量增长强劲，具备新红利。从互联网公司来看，AI已经成为战略性方向，大厂AI从模型、芯片、推荐算法到落地能力全面布局，龙头大厂全面加码资本开支，预计年阿里（FY2026）、字节（CY2025）、腾讯（CY2025）Capex投入分别为1252、1600、863亿元。模型上，阿里提出文本基座模型Qwen3 max（国内榜单第一）、多模态模型通义万相2.5（国内榜单第三）等。腾讯推出文本基座模型混元T1（国内榜单第四）、多模态模型混元Vedio（国内榜单第四）、混元3D（全球第一梯队）等。互联网龙头公司全面布局B端/C端AI应用，AI云收入占比均在快速提升，且积极布局C端助手，抢占流量入口，包括字节系豆包、阿里系千问APP&夸克&蚂蚁阿福&蚂蚁灵光、腾讯系元宝&IMA等。海外Google等龙头厂商已经验证了Capex投入-AI产出的正向循环，Google2025年Capex投入预计在910~930亿美元，投入规模位居前列；模型同时全球领先，Gemini/Nano Banana/Veo模型登顶文字/图片/视频模型排行榜全球第一；B端云业务增速强劲，且TPU外供潜力较大，与Anthropic达成百万片TPU订单，AI云占比持续提升；广告主业赋能显著，2026Q3 AI Overviews用户众多，预计即将推出的AI Mode变现能力超AI Overviews，Performance-MAX AI广告系统显著提供高效广告创作投放能力。我们预计在AI+广告、AI Agent、多模态、具身智能将是2026年AI应用的核心方向，有望形成AI投入与产出的正向循环，龙头公司布局深入，具备潜力。腾讯：AI持续赋能广告算法，带来投放效率及eCPM价格提升，预计将推出 \"微信原生 Agent\"，将小程序作为Agent能力的核心执行载体，构建API平台，通过 “输入→小程序→服务→支付”闭环，实现 “社交 + 服务” 一体化体验。阿里：AI全面赋能淘天广告算+电商工具，后续预计将以千问为智能中枢，整合淘宝、淘宝闪购、高德地图、飞猪等全链路服务，打造“一站式生活服务 Agent”。小鹏汽车：2026Q1正式发布VLA2.0，Ultra车型上将全量推送VLA2.0系统，可以直接实现从视觉到动作的输出，智驾能力有望实现较大提升。四、行业推荐理由及评级我们认为在南下资金持续流入、海外流动性支撑核心资产估值下限的情况下，市场表现将进一步呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，重点关注科技业务及盈利兑现度情况，维持行业“推荐”评级，重点推荐标的：腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩、网易、快手-W、京东健康、小鹏汽车等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":534246528845432,"gmtCreate":1771450367988,"gmtModify":1771450370589,"author":{"id":"3474342316200448","authorId":"3474342316200448","name":"星宿小小仙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66dfe4fd824479ae852bbd63bd7aec17","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3474342316200448","idStr":"3474342316200448"},"htmlText":"大家更担心土壤问题","listText":"大家更担心土壤问题","text":"大家更担心土壤问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534246528845432","repostId":2612442868,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612442868","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771428214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612442868?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 23:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"国海证券：港股互联网龙头普遍具备性价比 关注腾讯控股、阿里巴巴等","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612442868","media":"陈梦竹海外研究...","summary":"互联网龙头公司全面布局B端/C端AI应用，AI云收入占比均在快速提升，且积极布局C端助手，抢占流量入口，包括字节系豆包、阿里系千问APP&夸克&蚂蚁阿福&蚂蚁灵光、腾讯系元宝&IMA等。","content":"<html><body><article><p>一、2025年初以来恒生科技板块估值持续回升，10月以来有所震荡，互联<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00777\">网龙</a>头公司估值普遍具备性价比</p><p>以AI大模型为核心的新一轮竞争，受到Deepseek开源及模型普惠化带来商业化ROI改善，国产AI迎来估值重塑，龙头互联网平台是本轮的中坚力量，兼具AI大模型能力+capex投入（包括支持国产算力）、人才投入能力+应用能力等，带来年初以来恒生科技板块估值的持续回升，但由于海外流动性、宏观环境、公司阶段性基本面等因素，恒生科技估值也有所波动。截至2025年12月31日，恒生科技PE-TTM为20.05倍，处于历史均值以下0.77倍标准差（2022年以来）； PS-TTM为1.99倍，处于历史均值以上0.2倍标准差。</p><p>二、资金角度：南向资金持续加速流入，美国降息对港股流动性有下限支撑，但市场表现可能呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，资金或更关注盈利或科技业务兑现</p><p>2025年以来南向资金持续加速流入，消费、科技、医药配置占比同比明显提升。互联网公司港股通持股占比均有不同程度的提升，截至2025年12月31日，腾讯从2025年初的10.1%提升至11%；快手从11.61%提升至16.64%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>从10.4%上升至20.76%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00268\">金蝶</a>从24.22%上升至28.22%。2026年海外流动性可能呈现“上半年更宽松、下半年不确定性上升”的节奏：联储保险式降息主要集中在上半年，随后大概率转入观望；在<span>美联储</span>降息预期逐步兑现、但<span>资产负债表</span>扩张受限、各国<span>利率</span>政策走向分化的背景下，流动性更可能支撑核心<span>资产</span>估值下限，市场表现将进一步呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，投资回报更多来自盈利兑现而非流动性溢价。</p><p>三、互联网行业用户流量趋于稳定，龙头公司战略重点转向高质量增长，生成式AI正在成为新的驱动力，持续看好AI等科技业务兑现带来的估值重塑</p><p>从互联网行业来看，整体流量已经趋于稳定，但AI APP及PC、网站端用户体量正在形成规模，流量增长强劲，具备新红利。从互联网公司来看，AI已经成为战略性方向，大厂AI从模型、芯片、推荐算法到落地能力全面布局，龙头大厂全面加码资本开支，预计年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>（FY2026）、字节（CY2025）、腾讯（CY2025）Capex投入分别为1252、1600、863亿元。模型上，阿里提出文本基座模型Qwen3 max（国内榜单第一）、多模态模型通义万相2.5（国内榜单第三）等。腾讯推出文本基座模型混元T1（国内榜单第四）、多模态模型混元Vedio（国内榜单第四）、混元3D（全球第一梯队）等。互联网龙头公司全面布局B端/C端AI应用，AI云收入占比均在快速提升，且积极布局C端助手，抢占流量入口，包括字节系豆包、阿里系千问APP&amp;夸克&amp;蚂蚁阿福&amp;蚂蚁灵光、腾讯系元宝&amp;IMA等。海外Google等龙头厂商已经验证了Capex投入-AI产出的正向循环，Google2025年Capex投入预计在910~930亿美元，投入规模位居前列；模型同时全球领先，Gemini/Nano Banana/Veo模型登顶文字/图片/视频模型排行榜全球第一；B端云业务增速强劲，且TPU外供潜力较大，与Anthropic达成百万片TPU订单，AI云占比持续提升；广告主业赋能显著，2026Q3 AI Overviews用户众多，预计即将推出的AI Mode变现能力超AI Overviews，Performance-MAX AI广告系统显著提供高效广告创作投放能力。我们预计在AI+广告、AI Agent、多模态、具身智能将是2026年AI应用的核心方向，有望形成AI投入与产出的正向循环，龙头公司布局深入，具备潜力。腾讯：AI持续赋能广告算法，带来投放效率及eCPM价格提升，预计将推出 \"微信原生 Agent\"，将小程序作为Agent能力的核心执行载体，构建API平台，通过 “输入→小程序→服务→支付”闭环，实现 “社交 + 服务” 一体化体验。阿里：AI全面赋能淘天广告算+电商工具，后续预计将以千问为智能中枢，整合淘宝、淘宝闪购、高德地图、飞猪等全链路服务，打造“一站式生活服务 Agent”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>：2026Q1正式发布VLA2.0，Ultra车型上将全量推送VLA2.0系统，可以直接实现从视觉到动作的输出，智驾能力有望实现较大提升。</p><p>四、行业推荐理由及评级</p><p>我们认为在南下资金持续流入、海外流动性支撑核心资产估值下限的情况下，市场表现将进一步呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，重点关注科技业务及盈利兑现度情况，维持行业“推荐”评级，重点推荐标的：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车</a>等。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国海证券：港股互联网龙头普遍具备性价比 关注腾讯控股、阿里巴巴等</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国海证券：港股互联网龙头普遍具备性价比 关注腾讯控股、阿里巴巴等\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 23:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026021522071795413a4b&s=b><strong>陈梦竹海外研究...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一、2025年初以来恒生科技板块估值持续回升，10月以来有所震荡，互联网龙头公司估值普遍具备性价比以AI大模型为核心的新一轮竞争，受到Deepseek开源及模型普惠化带来商业化ROI改善，国产AI迎来估值重塑，龙头互联网平台是本轮的中坚力量，兼具AI大模型能力+capex投入（包括支持国产算力）、人才投入能力+应用能力等，带来年初以来恒生科技板块估值的持续回升，但由于海外流动性、宏观环境、公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026021522071795413a4b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU0469268626.HKD":"AB FCP I-ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY PTF(AD","HK0000352382.USD":"VALUE PARTNERS ASIAN INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999001689.USD":"施罗德亚洲成长股票","IE00B8L5B284.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) 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Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU1226288253.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELECTION SICAV - CHINA ALLOCATION  OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026021522071795413a4b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2612442868","content_text":"一、2025年初以来恒生科技板块估值持续回升，10月以来有所震荡，互联网龙头公司估值普遍具备性价比以AI大模型为核心的新一轮竞争，受到Deepseek开源及模型普惠化带来商业化ROI改善，国产AI迎来估值重塑，龙头互联网平台是本轮的中坚力量，兼具AI大模型能力+capex投入（包括支持国产算力）、人才投入能力+应用能力等，带来年初以来恒生科技板块估值的持续回升，但由于海外流动性、宏观环境、公司阶段性基本面等因素，恒生科技估值也有所波动。截至2025年12月31日，恒生科技PE-TTM为20.05倍，处于历史均值以下0.77倍标准差（2022年以来）； PS-TTM为1.99倍，处于历史均值以上0.2倍标准差。二、资金角度：南向资金持续加速流入，美国降息对港股流动性有下限支撑，但市场表现可能呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，资金或更关注盈利或科技业务兑现2025年以来南向资金持续加速流入，消费、科技、医药配置占比同比明显提升。互联网公司港股通持股占比均有不同程度的提升，截至2025年12月31日，腾讯从2025年初的10.1%提升至11%；快手从11.61%提升至16.64%；美团从10.4%上升至20.76%；金蝶从24.22%上升至28.22%。2026年海外流动性可能呈现“上半年更宽松、下半年不确定性上升”的节奏：联储保险式降息主要集中在上半年，随后大概率转入观望；在美联储降息预期逐步兑现、但资产负债表扩张受限、各国利率政策走向分化的背景下，流动性更可能支撑核心资产估值下限，市场表现将进一步呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，投资回报更多来自盈利兑现而非流动性溢价。三、互联网行业用户流量趋于稳定，龙头公司战略重点转向高质量增长，生成式AI正在成为新的驱动力，持续看好AI等科技业务兑现带来的估值重塑从互联网行业来看，整体流量已经趋于稳定，但AI APP及PC、网站端用户体量正在形成规模，流量增长强劲，具备新红利。从互联网公司来看，AI已经成为战略性方向，大厂AI从模型、芯片、推荐算法到落地能力全面布局，龙头大厂全面加码资本开支，预计年阿里（FY2026）、字节（CY2025）、腾讯（CY2025）Capex投入分别为1252、1600、863亿元。模型上，阿里提出文本基座模型Qwen3 max（国内榜单第一）、多模态模型通义万相2.5（国内榜单第三）等。腾讯推出文本基座模型混元T1（国内榜单第四）、多模态模型混元Vedio（国内榜单第四）、混元3D（全球第一梯队）等。互联网龙头公司全面布局B端/C端AI应用，AI云收入占比均在快速提升，且积极布局C端助手，抢占流量入口，包括字节系豆包、阿里系千问APP&夸克&蚂蚁阿福&蚂蚁灵光、腾讯系元宝&IMA等。海外Google等龙头厂商已经验证了Capex投入-AI产出的正向循环，Google2025年Capex投入预计在910~930亿美元，投入规模位居前列；模型同时全球领先，Gemini/Nano Banana/Veo模型登顶文字/图片/视频模型排行榜全球第一；B端云业务增速强劲，且TPU外供潜力较大，与Anthropic达成百万片TPU订单，AI云占比持续提升；广告主业赋能显著，2026Q3 AI Overviews用户众多，预计即将推出的AI Mode变现能力超AI Overviews，Performance-MAX AI广告系统显著提供高效广告创作投放能力。我们预计在AI+广告、AI Agent、多模态、具身智能将是2026年AI应用的核心方向，有望形成AI投入与产出的正向循环，龙头公司布局深入，具备潜力。腾讯：AI持续赋能广告算法，带来投放效率及eCPM价格提升，预计将推出 \"微信原生 Agent\"，将小程序作为Agent能力的核心执行载体，构建API平台，通过 “输入→小程序→服务→支付”闭环，实现 “社交 + 服务” 一体化体验。阿里：AI全面赋能淘天广告算+电商工具，后续预计将以千问为智能中枢，整合淘宝、淘宝闪购、高德地图、飞猪等全链路服务，打造“一站式生活服务 Agent”。小鹏汽车：2026Q1正式发布VLA2.0，Ultra车型上将全量推送VLA2.0系统，可以直接实现从视觉到动作的输出，智驾能力有望实现较大提升。四、行业推荐理由及评级我们认为在南下资金持续流入、海外流动性支撑核心资产估值下限的情况下，市场表现将进一步呈现指数强、结构分化、龙头集中度提升的特征，重点关注科技业务及盈利兑现度情况，维持行业“推荐”评级，重点推荐标的：腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩、网易、快手-W、京东健康、小鹏汽车等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.93,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TCEHY":1.95,"TCHmain":0.6,"00700":1.95,"09988":1.93}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612442868","isCrawlerRequest":true}

国海证券：港股互联网龙头普遍具备性价比 关注腾讯控股、阿里巴巴等

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国海证券：港股互联网龙头普遍具备性价比关注腾讯控股、阿里巴巴等