近8成房企预收账款下降

亿翰智库02-19

图表：2025年上半年房企预收账款TOP100资料来源：企业半年报/业绩公告，亿翰智库注：表格中预收账款为房企资产负债表中“合同负债”及“预收款项”加总所得。“蓄水池”萎缩，近8成房企预收账款下降预收账款，归属于房企资产负债表的流动负债项，购房者签订购房合同，支付首付款及房贷，进入房企的资金监管账户，就变成了房企的预收账款，项目竣工交房后，预收账款就结转成为房企的营业收入，即是房企收入的“蓄水池”...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260219101845a4b1f9bf&s=b><strong>亿翰智库</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>图表：2025年上半年房企预收账款TOP100资料来源：企业半年报/业绩公告，亿翰智库注：表格中预收账款为房企资产负债表中“合同负债”及“预收款项”加总所得。“蓄水池”萎缩，近8成房企预收账款下降预收账款，归属于房企资产负债表的流动负债项，购房者签订购房合同，支付首付款及房贷，进入房企的资金监管账户，就变成了房企的预收账款，项目竣工交房后，预收账款就结转成为房企的营业收入，即是房企收入的“蓄水池”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260219101845a4b1f9bf&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BVYPNQ40.USD","symbol_name":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) 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declined","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03121":0.6,"00688":0.9},"content_text":"图表：2025年上半年房企预收账款TOP100资料来源：企业半年报/业绩公告，亿翰智库注：表格中预收账款为房企资产负债表中“合同负债”及“预收款项”加总所得。“蓄水池”萎缩，近8成房企预收账款下降预收账款，归属于房企资产负债表的流动负债项，购房者签订购房合同，支付首付款及房贷，进入房企的资金监管账户，就变成了房企的预收账款，项目竣工交房后，预收账款就结转成为房企的营业收入，即是房企收入的“蓄水池”。截至2025年6月末，TOP100房企预收账款合计30247.64亿元，同比下降25.97%。其中，78家预收账款同比下跌，降幅大于40%房企的超过了30家。拉长周期来看，2022上半年至2025上半年，房企预收账款规模下跌是持续性的。由于“房住不炒”等一系列政策限制以及疫情影响，导致2022年开始，新开工、施工及竣工面积全面收缩，销售端亦受到显著拖累。在这一背景下，房企之间的表现出现显著分化。中国海外发展（+19.41%）TOP10房企中唯一实现预收账款同比增长的房企。能做到预收账款逆势增长，主要是得益于其聚焦核心的业务布局、稳健的财务情况和被购房者认可的产品力。2025年上半年，中海地产全口径销售额1205.4亿元，行业排名第三，在一线城市及香港销售占比高达53.7%，北京单城销售额超300亿元；投资方面，共获取17宗地块，权益拿地金额401.1亿元，在一线城市及香港权益购地金额占比52.1%；融资成本方面，平均融资成本仅2.9%，处于行业最低区间；现金短债比为4.9倍，财务结构非常稳健。中海逆势增长的预收账款，不仅为其未来1-2年的业绩提供了坚实的“安全垫”，也凸显了其在行业新周期下强大的抗风险能力和可持续经营优势。碧桂园（-47.16%）则是TOP10房企中同比降幅最大的。作为曾经的行业龙头，预收账款的急剧收缩，更深刻反映了其面临的销售困境与战略调整的阵痛。碧桂园的大幅下滑，与其“高负债、高周转”广泛布局三四线城市的战略密切相关。在房地产市场整体降温的背景下，三四线城市需求萎靡、库存高企的问题尤为突出，导致其项目去化极度困难，新的销售收入大幅减少，无法为预收账款“蓄水池”有效补水。同时，其面临的流动性压力也削弱了市场信心，进一步加剧了销售难度。TOP10房企在预收账款指标上的显著分化，清晰地勾勒出当前房地产行业“强者恒强、优胜劣汰”的新格局。这一分化趋势或预示着，未来1-2年，房企的营业收入表现将出现巨大差距。预收账款充足的房企，业绩确定性更高；而预收账款大幅萎缩的房企，则将面临营业收入持续下滑的严峻挑战。图表：2022年上半年-2025年上半年TOP100房企预收账款走势资料来源：企业半年报/业绩公告，亿翰智库营业收入普降，房企预收账款业绩保障倍数也下降2025年上半年，TOP100房企的营业收入同比下降了14.8%。在营业总收入榜的解读中（房企营业总收入TOP100榜单发布！保利超越万科，冲到榜一），已明确剖析了房企营收下滑原因：一是项目结转交付节奏放缓，上半年实际交付规模减少，直接导致报表收入下降；二是多数企业处于“缩表”周期，拿地收缩、新项目减少、销售额持续承压，最终传导至交付端，形成营业收入整体下滑的局面。特别是已出险房企，收入降幅更为显著，反映出销售端“腰斩式”收缩对业绩的拖累。与此同时，衡量房企未来收入安全性的关键指标——业绩保障倍数（预收账款/营业收入）也出现下降。2025年上半年，预收账款TOP100房企的业绩保障倍数为2.35倍，较2024年同期下降0.35倍。意味着，预收账款下降的速度比营业收入更快，反映出多数房企未来可结转收入的“蓄水池”正在加速萎缩。2025年上半年，预收账款TOP100房企中业绩保障倍数（预收账款/营业收入）为2.35倍，较2024年同期下降0.35倍。相当于在营业收入下降的同时，预收账款的降速更快。具体来看，TOP100房企中，59家业绩保障倍数出现下降，从上半年整体情况观察，房企的收入支撑能力普遍减弱，部分企业面临当前营收下滑与未来收入储备不足的双重压力。总的来说，预收账款的持续下滑，为房企未来的收入前景敲响了警钟。在行业整体“缩表”的大背景下，房企的生存法则已然改变：过去的竞争侧重于创造销售回款的速度与规模，而如今的考验则在于维持现金流的稳定与提升资产质量。因此，若房企想要维持充足的业绩保障，构建起属于自身的核心竞争力，十分关键。声明：本文观点仅代表作者观点","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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