恒生科技再思考：从虚拟世界，到物理世界

子弹列车Bullet...02-20

春节前写了篇短文提到恒生科技，内容简单但争议不少，这篇文章稍微做下展开。境内互联网发展了20多年，带来一个不容易被感知到的变化，就是大部分人的注意力都被锁在了自己身边的屏幕上，这里当然也包括成千上万的投资者。马年春晚的直播收视率和电视收视率据说都创下了近十几年的新高，显然不是因为节目本身。究竟什么在变，这是值得深入思考的问题。在屏幕、软件、数字内容构成的世界里，人的获得感和充盈感是很强的。大家逐渐...

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World","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HMTD.SI":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"MPNGY":1.87,"03690":1.87,"HSTECH":0.9},"content_text":"春节前写了篇短文提到恒生科技，内容简单但争议不少，这篇文章稍微做下展开。境内互联网发展了20多年，带来一个不容易被感知到的变化，就是大部分人的注意力都被锁在了自己身边的屏幕上，这里当然也包括成千上万的投资者。马年春晚的直播收视率和电视收视率据说都创下了近十几年的新高，显然不是因为节目本身。究竟什么在变，这是值得深入思考的问题。在屏幕、软件、数字内容构成的世界里，人的获得感和充盈感是很强的。大家逐渐对虚拟世界的信息展现出成熟的掌控力，和主观上的自信。但人对实体世界的现场感知，以及系统化的学习、批判性思考，事实上是被削弱的。除了房子这种日常讨论频繁、被高度金融化的品种以外，以实物形式存在的资产长期被忽视。2025年，包括白银、铜、电网在内的实物资产价格上涨已经超越了普通人的认知框架，这背后当然有AI竞争作为推力；2026年，问题又多了一个：理论上，AI对传统互联网是一种加强，将会更大程度地刺激平台型商业模式的创新。2025年初DeepSeek横空出世之后，大家翘首期盼的是“AI应用侧”接力，让两位马爸爸再赢一次。然而新一年的市场，似乎对这些擅长构筑线上基础设施和平台型商业模式的企业并不友好。春节前，港股美团发布了一则盈利预警，2025年度预计亏损扩大，为应对行业竞争，将在加大消费者、骑手及商户端投入以提升竞争力。红包大战、AI应用入口之争，让大家感觉到，本土的互联网头部公司在竞争策略和资本开支上，走了一条与海外大公司完全不同的道路。……从虚拟世界回归物理世界虚拟世界资产的特征之一是，可以让虚拟事物以近乎于零的边际成本进行复制，从而让那些具备此类优势的公司，以极高的效率积累用户、扩大业务规模。构成虚拟世界经济运行体系的要件，除了科技（互联网）之外，就是金融（资本）。两者具备类似的特征，粗鲁地讲，它们都是数字的游戏。而物理世界的运行规则不是摩尔定律的爽文模式，它除了受到传统物理学、热力学定律支配以外，还很大程度上受地缘因素的干预。一个铜矿从被发现到产出精品铜，需要花费十几年的时间，这个过程很难被加速。21世纪头20年，在全球低利率环境下，金融和科技展现出无比的扩张能力；而资源品则始终被自身的周期所支配，在投资世界里被低估。2025年资源品的大涨，让这两个原先各自独立运行的系统，出现了直观的连接。大家发现：1、AI世界的基础设施（数据中心），需要大量的能源和电力供给；2、AI背后的要素流动（云计算），耗费的是钢铁和重型工业基础设施；3、更关键的是，当前全球地缘环境下，资本配置是受限的，这会进一步拉长资源品行情的周期。大部分人的投资生涯只有短短30年左右，而虚拟世界的投资神话至少已经延续了20多年，这意味着，当代大部分成长型投资人，都没有经历过这样一种独特的周期。大家默认科技股必然是贵的，科技公司尤其是互联网公司的利润率会一直维持在高位，而对实物资产则时时刻刻都抱有必将顺从周期规律、最终暴跌收场的预期。现在两股势能交汇在一起，AI对实物资源的需求极端旺盛。慢慢地，纯粹“轻”的东西被卖出，“由轻到重”的东西，开始受到关注。……回到恒生科技内地个人投资者接触港股投资，多数是从指数开始的。从最早的恒生指数、恒生国企，到后来的港股互联网、恒生科技。如今恒生科技早已不能完整包容港股泛科技公司的生态，恒生指数公司推出了恒生生物科技、恒生双科技指数，港交所推出了港交所科技100指数。多年以来，大部分投资者在港股的投资成果或许都一言难尽。先不论指数成分股本身的投资价值，港股受海外利率变化影响深刻，波动实在难以驾驭。再者，港股的几个核心指数，和这个市场的适配性并不理想。具体原因我在《哪些资产不适合指数化投资？》里面提到过。简单来说，港股是个机构投资者主导的市场，买指数基金，大概率避不开那些超大市值的个股。港股近两年赶上行业成分换血的关键时期，IPO新秀迭出，代表了新锐投资的方向，但是它们进入指数，需要时间。恒生科技在当下还有一个突出的问题，就是它不够“硬”。对比海外，M7这些曾经被认为轻资产的科技公司，正在以前所未有的规模投资于土地、钢材、电力电缆和核反应堆。这也催生了所谓“真假AI”的辩论。春节期间的AI应用大战让大家发现，中国科技公司大多还是互联网时代的公司，资本投入的方向，并不符合投资人的价值观念转向。如果它们的管理层还没意识到这一点，那么在二级市场的表现必然备受冲击。AI时代可能出现，也可以已经大面积出现的一种情况是，AI的终端消费者享尽了便利，但并不影响他们看衰这些公司。用传统的语言来说，在构成企业价值链的三类人群中，客户是受益的，但是股东和员工吃尽了苦头。最后，乐观地讲，AI的未来一定是让所有人都受益的，只是我们暂时还没想到，未来何时、何种方式，让所有人在同一时间受益。……写在最后今天看到一篇文章，港交所主席唐家成在新春开市致辞时，分享了一组数据：2026年以来，香港已有24只IPO上市，集资额突破870亿港元。“整个马年，以2026年来说，我们已经开了一个好头。”唐家成感叹道：“排队等候上市的还有488家。大家从来没有这么忙过，但忙得开心，因为这代表市场活跃、货如轮转。”去年我撰文讲写了MSCI China的投资逻辑，港股作为一个整体，机会非常多。下一阶段，我会考虑在节后的合适时间，把除港股红利以外的港股指数投资工具全部替换成主动基金。_Written by AERO.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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