市值大跌！阿里每天烧5亿，烧出了什么？段永平“抛售”阿里背后的残酷真相

商业早八点02-20

2026年2月20日，港股迎来马年首个交易日，阿里巴巴股价下跌近4%，延续了近期疲软走势。这一下跌恰逢知名投资人段永平管理的H&H International Investment在2025年四季度大幅减持阿里巴巴、同时大手笔加仓英伟达的操作曝光。为什么阿里巴巴选择重金投入即时零售而非大举进军AI？这背后是AI在中国市场变现困难，还是阿里面临更深层的战略困境？01.段永平不看好阿里了？段永平的投资...

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Ali burns 500 million yuan every day, what did he burn out? The cruel truth behind Duan Yongping's \"selling\" of Ali","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.9,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.97,"KBAB":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"BABW":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"09988":1.97,"BABO":0.6},"content_text":"2026年2月20日，港股迎来马年首个交易日，阿里巴巴股价下跌近4%，延续了近期疲软走势。这一下跌恰逢知名投资人段永平管理的H&H International Investment在2025年四季度大幅减持阿里巴巴、同时大手笔加仓英伟达的操作曝光。为什么阿里巴巴选择重金投入即时零售而非大举进军AI？这背后是AI在中国市场变现困难，还是阿里面临更深层的战略困境？01.段永平不看好阿里了？段永平的投资哲学核心是“买股票就是买公司”，坚持“不懂不做”的原则。他在2025年与方三文的对话中坦言：“英伟达确实是厉害，我也看了黄仁勋很多视频，这个人我也很欣赏……所以我觉得投一点看看吧，AI这个东西我觉得至少掺和一下，不要错过了。”但他同时明确表示“对AI还是没有看太懂”，减持英伟达等AI概念股是出于估值和认知度的考量。对于阿里巴巴，段永平并未公开解释减持原因，但从其投资逻辑可窥一二。有分析认为，可能的原因包括：对中概股监管不确定性的担忧、对电商行业竞争格局的评估，或是部分兑现2024年抄底收益。更重要的是，段永平强调投资要看懂“未来的现金流”。当下的阿里巴巴，既要与美团、抖音、京东血战争夺即时零售，巩固核心业务，甚至不惜投入500亿补贴；又要重金押注AI与云计算，双线作战的巨额投入可能让投资者对其未来现金流产生疑虑。02.阿里为什么重仓即时零售？阿里巴巴对即时零售的投入决心是前所未有的。2026年初，阿里核心管理层在一次内部会议上鼓励团队要继续大胆做闪购，三年内不要有亏损负担。创始人马云曾在内部表示，“淘宝闪购是集团里程碑意义的战役”。即时零售的战略价值体现在三个方面：1. 防御性战略：守住电商基本盘即时零售是防止美团等对手侵蚀阿里电商基本盘的关键防线。目前餐饮外卖市场格局趋于稳定，美团与淘宝闪购的份额分别超过50%和40%，京东不足5%。从2025年11月开始，阿里不再主要追求订单量增长，而是在稳住份额的前提下，争取将30元以上的“高质量订单”占比提高到60%。2. 进攻性战略：抢占万亿市场新高地商务部研究院预测，2026年中国即时零售规模将突破1万亿元，2030年有望达到2万亿元。阿里深度整合内部资源，构建了覆盖流量、商品、履约的完整生态链条：淘宝/天猫提供核心流量与商品供给，高德贡献本地生活流量及定位服务，菜鸟承担仓储与城市仓资源，原饿了么团队则转化为核心配送运力。3. 财务表现：投入产出比逐步改善2026财年第二季度，阿里即时零售收入229.06亿元，同比大涨60%。更关键的是，单均亏损腰斩，非茶饮订单占比超75%，客单价两位数增长，烧钱换规模的阶段正在过去。2025年四季度，淘宝闪购亏损规模约200亿元，处于市场预期区间内，且减亏节奏超出前期预判。03.阿里的AI叙事尽管阿里巴巴宣布未来三年投入超过3800亿元用于云和AI硬件基础设施建设，但相比即时零售的“不计亏损”投入，AI领域的投入显得更为审慎。这背后是AI在中国市场面临的深层变现困境。1. 高昂的算力成本与有限的利润空间AI产业利润分配严重不均，硬件层（如英伟达）攫取了绝大部分利润，而应用层企业则在探索盈利模式中面临高昂的算力成本压力。阿里云虽然在中国AI云市场份额达35.8%，超过第二到第四名的总和，但AI相关产品的高投入与回报周期长，短期内难以贡献显著利润。2. 商业化路径不清晰，用户付费意愿低C端AI应用面临用户留存难题。通过红包补贴等手段获取的用户，能否凭借优质的AI功能留存下来，避免“领完红包就走”，是大厂面临的共同课题。目前AI应用的30日平均留存率仅12.8%，远低于移动应用的平均水平。3. 技术迭代快速，投入风险高大模型的竞争已经进入了极其惨烈的深水区。据行业估算，字节跳动在2025年的AI投入已超千亿，2026年计划更是高达1600亿；腾讯和百度的投入也在以每年数百亿甚至千亿的规模持续加码。在这样的行业格局下，阿里需要持续巨额投入，而短期盈利承压。4. 中美AI市场差异：变现模式不同瑞银证券中国互联网行业分析师熊玮表示，中美AI变现路径相近，云业务与广告仍是当前确定性最高的两大变现领域。但在中国，企业客户对AI投入的ROI要求更为严格，效果归因复杂，量化标准难以统一。04.阿里的财务压力阿里巴巴正面临严峻的资源分配挑战，这直接反映在其财务报表上。1. 利润大幅下滑，现金流承压2025年第三季度，阿里经营利润同比大跌85%，净利润腰斩，原因直指即时零售与科技投入。单季度仅即时零售就亏掉350-380亿元，用百亿亏损换十亿增长。2026财年第二季度自由现金流净流出188.15亿元，较去年同期173.72亿元的净流入形成361.87亿元差额。2. 资金有限，必须做出取舍阿里在2025年的利润不足2000亿，现金及等价物约为1400亿。如果2026年淘宝闪购的投入超过前一年的700亿，加上AI领域必须跟进的千亿级开支，阿里单在这两项业务上的年现金消耗就将超过2000亿甚至逼近2200亿。面对字节、腾讯随时可能发动的资金战，阿里绝不敢将极其有限的弹药分散投入。3. 组织架构调整：聚焦核心业务阿里正在进行权力洗牌，核心决策权握在蔡崇信（战略与资本）、吴泳铭（技术与AI）、蒋凡（电商与即时零售）三人手中。合伙人大幅精简，从26人缩到17人，组织彻底告别分散扩张的草莽时代，聚焦电商与AI两大引擎。05.阿里的选择段永平抛售阿里、加仓英伟达的操作，是投资逻辑对商业战略的投票。这一选择揭示了几个关键洞察：1. 确定性溢价 vs 不确定性投入段永平增持伯克希尔（组合比例20.63%）体现对“确定性”资产的偏好。相比之下，阿里双线作战的不确定性更高：即时零售面临美团、京东的激烈竞争，AI投入回报周期长且商业化路径不清晰。2. 变现能力决定资源分配即时零售虽然亏损，但市场规模明确、增长路径清晰，是守住阿里电商基本盘的关键。而AI在中国市场的变现能力尚未得到充分验证，高昂的算力成本与有限的利润空间让阿里不得不审慎投入。3. 资源有限下的战略取舍阿里无法同时在两条战线上取得决定性胜利。在资金有限的情况下，选择重仓即时零售是更为务实的战略：即时零售是“守当下”的关键战役，而AI是“赌未来”的长期投入。两者都需要巨额资金，但即时零售的投入产出比更为可预测。4. 市场环境的现实考量2026年中国AI应用市场规模预计将达到1148亿元，但即时零售市场规模预计突破1万亿元。从市场规模看，即时零售的想象空间更大，且与阿里核心电商业务协同性更强。可以看出，阿里巴巴选择重仓即时零售而非大举进军AI，并非因为AI在中国不好变现，而是因为在当前阶段，即时零售的战略价值更为紧迫、变现路径更为清晰、与核心业务的协同性更强。这背后是阿里面对流量见顶、传统电商乏力、AI浪潮来袭的主动抉择：卖掉昨天，是为了轻装迎战明天；每一步后退，都指向更狠的进攻。打好即时零售这场硬仗，是为了更好地获得AI入场券！你认为是市场看错了阿里？还是阿里误判了市场呢？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"shareholding","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2612255722","isCrawlerRequest":true}