马斯克再次强调：中国是特斯拉人形机器人唯一对手 | 智车星球

智车星球02-20

在电动车时代，特斯拉曾长期领跑，但最终被中国厂商凭借供应链整合、规模化制造与性价比优势反超。如今，在人形机器人赛道，马斯克显然不想再犯一次同样的错误。作者|王蕊编辑|西子“中国将是特斯拉最大的竞争对手，而且在中国之外，我们看不到任何显著竞争者”。2025年Q4财报电话会议上，马斯克的表态掷地有声、毫不含糊。这绝非一句行业客套，而是特斯拉的一次战略宣言——这家巨头已将未来增长的重心，明显转向 AI ...

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目前总出货不足千台，仍处在样机验证与算法迭代阶段。在这种背景下，中美在人形机器人赛道的正面碰撞，已无可回避地展开。美国阵营：技术领先，量产拖后腿从技术角度看，美国在人形机器人赛道的最大底牌，无疑是特斯拉Optimus。Optimus 走的是一条高度“硅谷化”的技术路线：以 FSD 自动驾驶体系为基础，复用其感知、决策与训练框架，依托 Dojo 超级计算机进行大规模模型训练，追求的是高度通用、可自学习的机器人能力。更关键的是，特斯拉是目前极少数，同时具备“机器人—自动驾驶—芯片—算力—仿真—量产制造”完整闭环能力的公司。这使 Optimus 在长期具备跨场景迁移与快速复制的技术潜力，也正是马斯克敢于将其视为“通用劳动力平台”的底层信心来源。马斯克甚至多次表示，Optimus 长期可能贡献公司 80% 的市值，并计划2026 年底量产 Gen3 机型，2027 年底推向公众市场，远期年产 100 万台。但光鲜规划背后，是难以突破的量产瓶颈。截至 2025 年，Optimus 仍主要处于数百台级别的内部试制与验证阶段，手部灵巧度、前臂集成、整机装配等关键环节仍是工程瓶颈。更现实的问题在于，其核心零部件——包括伺服系统、触觉模组等，仍大量依赖中国供应链，供应链波动将直接影响其量产爬坡节奏。更大的问题在于，美国阵营几乎不存在“第二梯队”。Figure AI 等创业公司仍处于原型阶段；波士顿动力虽然积累深厚，却多年未能走通商业化量产路径，且已从液压驱动路线转向电驱动，折射出技术落地的困境。缺乏企业集群支撑、供应链分散、政策扶持不足，让美国阵营仅能依靠特斯拉的技术优势勉强领跑，难以形成规模化竞争力。中国阵营：集群式突围马斯克真正忌惮的，并不是某一家中国公司，而是一个已经成型的产业生态。2025 年，人形机器人赛道在中国呈现出明显的“集群式突围”特征。AGIBOT、宇树、优必选、傅利叶、达闼并行推进，覆盖工业制造、物流、康复、政务、消费级等多个场景。同时，灵巧手、关节模组、行星滚柱丝杠等关键零部件快速实现国产替代，成本被显著压缩。例如，慧灵科技的 eHand-6 灵巧手价格已下探至 2999 元；宇树的人形机器人开始进入 3–4 万元级定价区间；优必选 Walker S2 已在汽车制造与智慧物流中实训；智元机器人与龙旗科技合作，近千台机器人进入消费电子精密制造产线。这些产品并不追求“全能最优”，而是明确选择电机驱动、工程可控、优先落地的路线。相比美国阵营曾长期探索的液压驱动，中国的电驱方案更易规模化、成本更低，也更适合当前产业阶段。更重要的是，这一切并非企业单打独斗完成。从国家层面的《人形机器人创新发展指导意见》，到上海、浙江等地的产业集群规划，再到持续涌入的资本与人才，中国已经形成了政策—产业—资本—人才的合力。每年约 130 万名工程师毕业，AI 顶尖人才全球占比升至 26%，为这条赛道提供了充足的“人力弹药”。这一逻辑，马斯克并不陌生。在电动车时代，特斯拉曾长期领跑，但最终被中国厂商凭借供应链整合、规模化制造与性价比优势反超。2023年特斯拉丢掉全球新能源销量冠军，2025年交付量下滑，而中国厂商几乎吃下了全球市场的主要增量。如今，在人形机器人赛道，马斯克显然不想再犯一次同样的错误。星标关注“智车星球”公众号最真诚的智能汽车报道","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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