加剧AI恐慌！微软高管：大多数白领工作将在“未来12-18个月内”完全自动化

华尔街见闻02-13 08:58

微软人工智能业务负责人发出迄今最激进的自动化预警，称绝大多数白领专业工作可能在一年半内被AI取代，这一时间表远早于商界和政策制定者的普遍预期，为全球劳动力市场敲响警钟。微软AI首席执行官Mustafa Suleyman在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，律师、会计师、项目经理和营销人员等从事电脑办公的专业人士，其"大多数任务"将在未来12至18个月内被AI完全自动化。 AI导致的失业已初现端倪。...

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Microsoft executives: Most white-collar jobs will be fully automated \"in the next 12-18 months\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFT":1.91,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFX":0.6},"content_text":"微软人工智能业务负责人发出迄今最激进的自动化预警，称绝大多数白领专业工作可能在一年半内被AI取代，这一时间表远早于商界和政策制定者的普遍预期，为全球劳动力市场敲响警钟。\n微软AI首席执行官Mustafa Suleyman在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，律师、会计师、项目经理和营销人员等从事电脑办公的专业人士，其\"大多数任务\"将在未来12至18个月内被AI完全自动化。\nAI导致的失业已初现端倪。根据职业介绍公司Challenger的报告，今年1月有7624个工作岗位因AI被裁，占当月裁员总数的7%；2025年全年，AI导致的裁员公告达54836人。自2023年开始追踪以来，79449个计划裁员岗位归咎于AI。\n与此同时，AI安全与滥用风险也在加速升温。Anthropic在最新破坏活动报告中警告，其Claude模型在特定计算机使用场景下对“有害滥用”更敏感，甚至出现与化学武器开发相关的风险信号。\nAI大规模取代白领还有12至18个月的时间窗口\nSuleyman的预测标志着科技行业对AI取代人类工作时间表的最激进判断。他表示，AI将在未来12-18个月内在\"大多数，甚至所有\"专业任务上达到人类水平的表现，这些任务主要集中在需要坐在电脑前的白领工作。\n这一警告并非孤例。大规模劳动力替代的问题正困扰着全球各国政府，尽管在更广泛的经济逆风中，真实的失业人数仍不明朗。\nChallenger报告显示，AI在裁员叙事中的存在感正在增强：仅2026年1月，就有7,624个裁员被归因于AI，占当月总量的7%。按年度口径，2025年与AI相关的已宣布裁员为54,836人。\n\"很难说AI对裁员具体造成多大影响，\"Challenger表示，\"我们知道领导者在谈论AI，许多公司希望在运营中实施它，市场似乎在奖励那些提及它的公司。\"\n白领亲手训练\"替代者\"\n劳动力替代的一个具象案例正在浮现。《华尔街日报》报道称，湾区初创公司Mercor“悄然雇佣了数以万计的白领合同工”，其中不少是医学，法律，金融，工程，写作与艺术等领域的高资质专业人士，任务是训练未来可能替代他们的AI系统。\n报道称，这些合同工通常以每小时45至250美元的报酬，在数周或数月内对模型输出进行审阅与改写，为包括OpenAI与Anthropic在内的公司提供训练支持。\n对市场而言，这种模式显示出AI产业链对“数据标注与反馈劳动力”的短期需求，但也强化了长期替代逻辑带来的薪酬结构与就业稳定性问题。\n冲击节奏存在分歧\n并非所有分析师都认同如此迅速的替代时间表。摩根士丹利表示，\"AI的影响可能需要更长时间才能在经济数据中显现\"，首波不可否认的冲击可能在\"本十年后期以及下一个十年\"到来。\n\"虽然AI的采用速度可能快于过去的技术，但我们认为现在在经济数据中看到它还为时过早，除了商业投资之外，\"该行全球主题研究和可持续性研究主管Stephen Byrd告诉客户。\nAnthropic CEO列出六大AI风险清单\n上个月，Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei对AI发出全面警告，据Axios报道，他列出了以下风险：\n\n大规模失业：\"我同时认为，AI将在1至5年内颠覆50%的入门级白领工作，同时我们可能在仅仅1至2年内拥有比所有人都更有能力的AI。\"\nAI具备国家级权力：他设想2027年左右世界上某处出现一个\"天才之国\"，拥有5000万人口，\"所有人都比任何诺贝尔奖得主、政治家或技术专家更有能力。\"他认为这是\"一个世纪以来，也许是有史以来最严重的国家安全威胁\"。\n恐怖主义威胁上升：Amodei表示\"生物学是迄今为止我最担心的领域\"，因为其破坏潜力巨大且难以防御。随着生物学进步，可能\"进行更有选择性的攻击(例如，针对特定血统的人)\"，增加了\"另一个非常令人不寒而栗的可能动机\"。他认为\"在几百万人和几年时间的累积下，发生重大攻击的风险很严重，伤亡人数可能达到数百万或更多。\"\n赋能威权主义者：各国政府都将拥有这项技术。Amodei直言：\"AI赋能的威权主义令我恐惧。\"\nAI公司本身的风险：\"作为一家AI公司的CEO这样说有些尴尬，但我认为下一级风险实际上是AI公司本身，\"Amodei在关于威权政府的段落后警告。AI公司控制大型数据中心，训练前沿模型，拥有如何使用这些模型的最大专业知识，在某些情况下每天与数千万或数亿用户接触并可能影响他们。\"例如，他们可能使用AI产品对其庞大的消费者用户群进行洗脑，公众应警惕这一风险。\"\n诱惑权势者保持沉默：AI巨头拥有如此多的权力和金钱，以至于领导者将被诱惑淡化风险。\"AI能赚的钱太多了——字面意思是每年数万亿美元，\"Amodei写道，\"这就是陷阱：AI如此强大，如此诱人的奖品，以至于人类文明很难对其施加任何约束。\"\n\n他呼吁\"富人有义务帮助解决这个问题\"，并对\"许多富人(尤其是科技行业)最近采取玩世不恭和虚无主义态度，认为慈善事业是欺诈或无用的\"感到悲哀。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2611902499","isCrawlerRequest":true}