全球芯片供应呈紧张态势或引发连锁反应

瞭望智库02-13

2025年，受人工智能（AI）快速发展带动，全球芯片需求大增，销售额持续增长，供应则趋于紧张。进入2026年，全球芯片市场供应紧张态势短期内难以改变，或给相关产业带来一系列连锁反应。记者 | 周武英本文转载自新华社客户端“经济参考报”，原文首发于2026年2月10日，标题为《全球芯片供应呈紧张态势或引发连锁反应》。1全球芯片销售额持续增长2025年，全球芯片销售额实现大幅增长。业内人士认为，...

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或引发连锁反应》。1全球芯片销售额持续增长2025年，全球芯片销售额实现大幅增长。业内人士认为，2025年全球半导体行业实现了跨越式发展，无论是整体市场规模、季度及月度增长势头，还是核心产品细分领域，均呈现强劲增长态势。区域市场虽有分化，但亚太、美洲等核心市场的增长有效带动了全球市场发展。美国半导体协会（SIA）2月6日公布的统计数据显示，2025年全球芯片销售额达到7917亿美元，较上一年增长25.6%，创下历史最高年度销售纪录。此外，2025年第四季度销售额为2366亿美元，同比增长37.1%，环比2025年第三季度增长13.6%。世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）编制的数据显示，2025年12月全球单月芯片销售额为789亿美元，较11月环比增长2.7%。2025年全球芯片市场的这一增长速度大大超过了早先WSTS的预测。该组织于2024年12月发布的市场预测预计，2025年全球半导体市场规模将达到6971亿美元，同比增长11%。头部企业占据了大部分市场份额。根据《华尔街日报》此前报道，在人工智能爆发式增长的带动下，2025年全球半导体头部企业合计销售额有望突破4000亿美元，创下芯片行业年度最高纪录。而2026年市场规模预计将再创新高。从区域市场表现来看，2025年，亚太/其他地区销售额同比增长45.0%，表现最为亮眼，其中，中国市场同比增长17.3%，而日本市场则同比下降4.7%；美洲地区市场同比增长30.5%；欧洲地区市场同比增长6.3%。2025年12月，各区域的环比表现为：美洲增长3.9%、欧洲下降2.2%，亚太/其他地区增长2.5%，其中，中国增长3.8%，日本下降2.5%。从细分市场表现来看，2025年，逻辑芯片销售额同比增长39.9%，达到3019亿美元，成为销售额最高的产品类别；存储产品销售额位居第二，同比增长34.8%，达到2231亿美元。2供应紧张态势短期难改WSTS预计，2026年全球半导体市场规模将增长26.3%，达到9750亿美元，接近1万亿美元大关。SIA总裁兼首席执行官约翰·纽菲尔认为，半导体是几乎所有现代技术的基石，人工智能、物联网、6G、自动驾驶等新兴技术将继续强劲拉动芯片需求。而芯片市场规模将比原先预期的更快达到1万亿美元这一里程碑。“当我们这个行业实现增长时，意味着其他行业将获得指数级的收益。”纽菲尔称。目前，AI技术发展已经成为芯片行业的增长引擎。从数据中心到终端设备，从云端到边缘，AI技术的渗透正在重塑芯片市场的需求和供给结构。业内人士认为，2026年，AI技术发展将继续主导芯片行业增长，成为推动市场规模扩大的核心动力。继2025年全球AI服务器出货量同比增幅达46%后，2026年预计仍将保持24.3%的增速，这导致存储芯片，尤其是高带宽内存（HBM）和DDR5供应紧张。从年初表现来看，AI大模型训练和推理需求继续推动HBM市场激增。2025年，HBM需求量同比增长了130%。三星半导体、SK海力士、美光科技三大内存制造商为此将有限的产能和资本支出，大幅转向利润率更高的HBM和企业级DRAM，而减少了用于消费级电子产品的芯片供应。调研机构Omdia分析指出，数据中心市场份额正加速向50%逼近。过去20多年间，数据中心在全球半导体收入中的占比始终稳定在30%至40%之间。近两年来，数据中心在全球半导体收入中的比重攀升至46%。2026年，该数据可能突破50%。存储芯片供应紧张促使芯片供应商调整产能策略，并引发一系列连锁反应，供给结构随之发生调整。由于存储芯片制造商将产能优先分配给AI数据中心，车规级芯片的供应缺口预计将进一步扩大。公开资料显示，随着汽车智能化进程加速，智能汽车芯片的市场需求不断增加。目前，智能汽车芯片主要分为座舱芯片、自动驾驶芯片、车身控制芯片、功率半导体、通信与存储芯片。存储芯片短缺给下游产业带来影响。比如，2026年，全球智能手机市场规模预计将出现下滑。市场研究机构Counterpoint预测，2026年，全球智能手机出货量将减少2.1%。国际数据公司（IDC）的数据也显示，内存芯片短缺或将导致今年全球智能手机市场规模出现2023年以来的首次年度下滑。3芯片价格上涨或引发连锁反应目前，芯片供应持续紧张，年初以来市场对芯片价格的上涨担忧仍未缓解。富国银行预计，2026年，全球DRAM需求将增长26%，而供应仅增长21%，汽车制造商可能需要支付更高的价格以确保芯片供应。TrendForce集邦咨询预计，2026年第一季度，DRAM合约价将环比上涨55%至60%，NAND Flash合约价将上涨33%至38%。由于存储芯片在智能手机物料成本中的占比上升至20%甚至更高，导致使用这类芯片的制造商面临涨价或减配的两难选择。路透社2月6日报道称，随着全球内存芯片短缺冲击智能手机市场，诸如苹果公司这样的著名企业，也面临提高价格还是牺牲利润来获得新客户的问题，而苹果的决定将给整个行业带来影响。“这是目前该行业面临的最大问题”，IDC高级研究总监纳比拉·波帕尔说，“这是一把双刃剑，如果苹果不提高价格，虽然有助于扩大市场份额，但也会让投资者感到不安。”据彭博新闻社报道，任天堂公司总裁Shuntaro Furukawa在业绩发布会上表示，内存芯片价格上涨可能会使利润承压。法新社的报道称，与世界各地的竞争对手一样，日本索尼公司同样面临日趋严重的内存芯片短缺问题，芯片价格上涨正不断挤压各类电子产品的利润率。分析人士认为，芯片短缺问题可能冲击索尼的相机、电视和智能手机等硬件产品，以及图像传感器业务。此外，智能手机市场受到内存芯片短缺冲击，也拖累了高通公司等手机芯片供应商的业绩。该公司日前公布2026财年第一财季业绩时，做出了低于华尔街预期的业绩展望。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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全球芯片供应呈紧张态势 或引发连锁反应

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全球芯片供应呈紧张态势或引发连锁反应