软件股遭遇2010年来最大做空潮，高盛惊呼：市场“无处可藏”！

华尔街见闻02-13

十年最猛烈做空潮席卷美国软件股，摩根士丹利数据显示空头规模创2010年以来新高，市场陷入“先卖后问”的恐慌。AI取代白领的担忧引发行业震荡，防御性板块加速跑赢，科技七巨头（Mag 7）亦显颓势。高盛交易主管Callahan表示，科技/成长板块中众多股票呈现超卖迹象，值得讨论哪些股票被过度折价。美国软件股正遭遇十余年来最猛烈的做空攻击。摩根士丹利数据显示，周三和周四软件及SaaS板块的单日做空规模...

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Robinson因AI聊天机器人可能削减人力需求而暴跌8个标准差。标普500指数隔夜下跌约1.55%，创三个月来第二大跌幅。防御性板块加速跑赢周期性股票，高盛周期股对比防御股配对交易录得\"解放日\"（Liberation Day）以来最差两日表现，累计下跌逾350个基点。10年期美债收益率逼近三个月低点至4.08%附近，VIX指数收盘站上20关口，市场避险情绪升温。高盛科技交易主管Callahan表示，这是他见过的最动荡的交易环境之一，随着罗素科技指数回落至200日移动均线，科技/成长板块中众多股票呈现超卖迹象，值得讨论哪些股票被过度折价。摩根士丹利：历史性做空潮卷土重来摩根士丹利在题为《对冲基金重启做空，软件股做空创2010年来单日最大增幅》的报告中指出，对冲基金在周三和周四转向大举做空，扭转了近期美股的空头回补趋势。新增空头高度集中于软件板块，总规模在2010年以来历史单日排名中位居前五。软件及SaaS板块成为做空焦点，新增空头规模已超越1月末水平。此前遭遇大量空头回补的基础设施软件股也未能幸免，重新面临沉重做空压力。相比之下，多头仓位减持规模有限，使得整体净卖出压力仍明显轻于1月末事件。摩根士丹利数据显示，上周曾创下史上最大单一股票做空规模纪录。周五及本周初的空头回补虽然猛烈，但持续时间远低于预期，市场迅速从\"死猫跳\"反弹转为新一轮抛售。高盛：无处可藏的市场高盛交易台在收盘总结中写道，\"今天无处可藏，市场弥漫着'先卖出、再问问题'的情绪。\"抛售速度在尾盘加快，除了AI担忧向更多子行业蔓延外，并无明确催化剂。部分交易员将抛售归因于英国《金融时报》报道微软AI部门CEO表示\"多数白领岗位将在12个月内被AI取代\"，因为\"模型编程能力已超越人类\"。运输物流公司CH Robinson成为另一痛点，股价出现8个标准差下跌，市场争论该公司是否会因AI聊天机器人匹配货运提高效率（降低人力需求）而成为输家。高盛另一位交易员此前指出，\"波动幅度严重打击市场情绪，没有人愿意入场抄底（参见CBRE尽管业绩稳健仍盘中反转下跌）。\"指数大跌，科技股遭集体抛售标普500指数隔夜下跌约1.55%，为过去三个月第二差表现。高盛周期股对比防御股配对交易录得\"解放日\"以来最差两日表现，两日累计下跌逾350个基点，市场避险迹象愈发明显。10年期美债收益率降至约三个月低点4.08%附近，防御性板块表现突出，Verizon过去18个交易日上涨16天。VIX指数再次收于20以上。市场对AI潜在的\"复合性\"、颠覆性和扩散性影响变得极度敏感和紧张。与此同时，大型科技AI支出方和算力公司也在估值下降——亚马逊连跌8天、12天中下跌11天，谷歌8天中下跌7天，英伟达和博通自去年夏天以来仍持平。防御性股票持续突破（Verizon、AT&T、强生、沃尔玛等）；\"AI基础设施\"主题出现分化（Compute vs EMS vs Memory）；软件、互联网和支付领域的\"成长股\"陷入高度相关的抛售（SaaS、金融科技、电商、广告、游戏、市场平台等）。估值调整是否过度？高盛科技交易主管Callahan表示，这是他见过的最动荡的交易环境之一。从他的视角看，本轮财报季和市场背景下，股价变化更多关于AI生态系统的叙事（大语言模型更新、博客、言论片段等），而非财报本身。市场迅速为感知到的技术变革定价，但现在需要讨论市场在某些领域是否\"过于超前\"（即股价变动快于业务变化）。Callahan引用两家公司财报电话会议言论作为例证（Tyler Technologies和Take-Two Interactive均未回到财报发布前水平）：Tyler Technologies在财报会议中表示：\"市场噪音很多，但在公共部门，单靠技术无法取胜。25年多来，Tyler引导客户度过一波又一波变革，我们的方法始终如一……客户不想要增加复杂性的附加工具。他们想要的是深度集成到现有系统中、受到适当治理、以可靠可信方式解决实际问题的实用AI。\"Take-Two Interactive回应谷歌Genie相关问题时称：\"坦白说我有点困惑，电子游戏行业从诞生之日起就建立在机器学习和人工智能基础上。我们用技术在计算机中创造游戏。自18个月前生成式AI问题出现以来，我一直对未来充满热情……这只是我们工作的很小一部分。如果这个产品、这个工具得以实现，将使我们工作的一部分变得更好、更高效。\"Callahan表示，随着罗素科技指数回落至200日移动均线，科技/成长板块中众多股票呈现超卖迹象，值得讨论哪些股票被过度折价。作为参考，大型科技股（即Mag 7）过去几个月已落后市场约7.5个百分点，是非\"市场事件\"驱动回调幅度较大的一轮（此前10%-12%区间的回调发生在市场事件期间）。Callahan正关注Mag7能否企稳，作为科技股稳定的潜在锚点（催化剂包括英伟达/博通财报、会议季、GTC大会等）。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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