AI热潮再遇“当头棒喝”，纳指重挫逾2%｜美股一线

21世纪经济网02-13

（资料图）南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌报道投资者对AI热潮的追捧促成了美股三年牛市，如今这股热潮已经跌跌撞撞。美国东部时间2月12日，道琼斯指数收跌1.34%，报49,451.98点；标普500指数跌1.57%，报6,832.76点；纳斯达克指数跌2.03%，报22,597.15点。近期市场基调已转变为对AI颠覆性潜力的担忧，软件、法律服务和财富管理领域等多个行业因此遭到冲击，投资者正重新...

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报道投资者对AI热潮的追捧促成了美股三年牛市，如今这股热潮已经跌跌撞撞。美国东部时间2月12日，道琼斯指数收跌1.34%，报49,451.98点；标普500指数跌1.57%，报6,832.76点；纳斯达克指数跌2.03%，报22,597.15点。近期市场基调已转变为对AI颠覆性潜力的担忧，软件、法律服务和财富管理领域等多个行业因此遭到冲击，投资者正重新思考如何评估这些企业的价值。即使是近期相对稳健的就业数据也难以提振美股。美国1月份非农就业岗位新增13万个，远超华尔街预期，失业率也从去年12月的4.4%降至4.3%，但市场在短暂的上扬之后再度疲软。巨额支出回报存疑谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊均公布了庞大的资本支出计划，四家科技公司今年合计将支出高达6500亿美元，这些资金将主要用于扩建AI基础设施。由于市场担心科技巨头无法从高额资本支出中获得足够回报，微软和亚马逊股价均在公布财报后经历了两位数跌幅。瑞银已将美国信息技术行业评级下调至“中性”级别。美国超大规模企业支出不断飙升，同时软件行业不确定性日益增加，硬件行业的估值过高，都增加了风险。瑞银认为，今年美国超大规模企业的资本支出可能达到7000亿美元，较三年前增长了四倍多。目前这种投资规模已经“几乎消耗了超大规模企业运营现金流的100%”。投资者对这些科技企业资金流可持续性的担忧可能会对市场情绪造成影响，当前这些企业的资本支出已经越来越依赖债务或股权融资。板块轮动明显近期，美股市场轮动的趋势正愈发明显。亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet等科技巨头公布了巨额资本支出计划，加上投资者们对Anthropic新工具的担忧再度加剧，导致众多人工智能相关的企业股票遭到抛售，资金纷纷涌入其他板块的价值型股票。美国银行认为，2020年以来，以“七巨头”为代表的科技巨头在美股市场上的领导地位正面临“重大威胁”。随着美国中期选举的临近，投资者应逐步倾向于投资中小盘股票。美银首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）表示，美股科技巨头们在人工智能上的大笔资本支出，意味着这些巨头企业“不再拥有最佳的资产负债表，也不再能进行最大规模的股票回购。“从轻资产模式向重资产模式的转型，意味着对本世纪20年代以来大型科技公司的市场领导地位构成重大威胁。”不过，也有不少分析师继续看好后市。摩根士丹利首席美股策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）认为，在人工智能热潮的支撑下，科技行业营收前景强劲，美国科技股还有进一步上涨的空间。在近期市场波动后，科技股估值有所下降。与此同时，软件股的集体暴跌也为微软和财捷（Intuit）等一些股票创造了“极具吸引力的买入机会”。展望未来，威尔逊分析称，人工智能赋能板块的基本面利好因素仍在，而且人工智能应用端相关标的的投资价值仍然被低估了。那些将人工智能应用于核心业务的公司，而非那些开发技术和基础设施公司，拥有更多机遇。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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