马斯克和OpenClaw之父的预言会否成真？80%APP消失后将是什么场景

第一财经02-15

王逸洲认为未来有三类应用最有可能“幸存”。　　“80%的APP将会消失。”开源AI智能体OpenClaw的创始人斯坦伯格（Peter Steinberg）近日在访谈中如此断言。　　在他看来，大多数APP的本质是在管理数据，而个人智能体（Personal Agent）可以接管这一切并做得更好，他已经能让个人智能体根据自身睡眠和压力情况调整健身计划、控制家里的灯光、调节智能床的温度，个人智能体掌握...

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What will happen after 80% APP disappears?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6},"content_text":"王逸洲认为未来有三类应用最有可能“幸存”。\n　　“80%的APP将会消失。”开源AI智能体OpenClaw的创始人斯坦伯格（Peter Steinberg）近日在访谈中如此断言。\n　　在他看来，大多数APP的本质是在管理数据，而个人智能体（Personal Agent）可以接管这一切并做得更好，他已经能让个人智能体根据自身睡眠和压力情况调整健身计划、控制家里的灯光、调节智能床的温度，个人智能体掌握的信息比任何单独的APP都多，决策也更合理。\n　　此前，特斯拉首席执行官马斯克曾抛出了更“激进”的时间线：未来五到六年内，操作系统或应用程序将彻底消失 。“你的手机只是显示像素和发出声音，它预测你最想看到和听到什么，然后实时生成，我们会尽可能地将AI集成到这个设备中。”他说。\n　　多位接受第一财经采访的业内人士表示，斯坦伯格和马斯克的预言并非危言耸听，而是正在发生的现实。\n\n　　“意图经济”\n　　其实，近来人们已经开始逐步体验“没有那么多APP”是什么感觉，比如AI一句话点奶茶，又如OpenClaw不需要用户下载新的APP，通过常见社交媒体就能下达指令和接收反馈。\n　　中欧国际工商学院决策科学与管理信息系统学教授谭寅亮长期从事人工智能经济学与人工智能管理学研究，他对第一财经表示，在智能体时代，AI将是唯一的“超级入口”。APP将退化为提供服务的插件（API），只负责履约。而马斯克所说的“操作系统消失”则更像是“操作系统存在感的消失”，底层系统仍在，只是上层入口从图标、菜单或窗口迁移到“Agent对话+自动执行”。\n　　这一人机与服务互动方式的变革意味着以用户界面（UI）为核心的开发将面临颠覆，毕竟Agent并不需要像人一样“浏览”页面和“点击”按钮。\n　　“以前的开发是围绕用户界面展开的，前端对接用户，后端对接功能。但现在所有的开发都是围绕意图和执行展开的。”长期关注硬科技的久远谦长（上海）企业管理咨询有限公司合伙人王逸洲对第一财经记者表示，未来更重要的是AI能否准确分析用户意图、分发指令并解决问题，这也凸显了收集用户个性化数据的重要性。\n　　谭寅亮也表示，这一变革对从业者的冲击是颠覆性的。开发者的重心将转向后端API的响应速度、结构化数据的质量以及与大模型的适配性。产品经理要研究的不再是点击、转化而是对话逻辑和意图识别准确率。产品设计的核心也将从“如何留住用户”转变思路，变成“如何更高效地服务AI智能体”。相对应地，日活（DAU）等指标可能也不再重要，取而代之的是任务完成率（TSR）。\n　　谁是智能体时代的赢家和输家\n　　那么，假如绝大多数APP将消失，谁更有可能成为幸存的20%？又将诞生哪些新的商业服务与机会？\n　　斯坦伯格表示，自己希望给Agent设置津贴，解决问题就付费。而订餐会用到外卖服务，可能还会出现类似 “租赁人力”帮忙落地的服务。\n　　王逸洲则表示未来有三类应用最有可能“幸存”，分别是社交软件这种能承载人类复杂意图的，打车、外卖等需要线下履约闭环的，以及创作工具类应用，它们本身不预设特定意图，而是人类意志的载体与延伸。\n　　值得注意的是，智能硬件的重要性被不断地提及。\n　　坦伯格认为，未来或许只有依赖摄像头、GPS等硬件传感器做实时数据采集类的APP能够幸存。\n　　王逸洲以可穿戴设备厂商为例分析称，智能硬件收集的是用户的眼部、表情、行为等实时数据，它们不仅是超级应用接触不到的现实世界的数据节点，而且可以补全很多行为信号，助力理解意图。\n　　“如果云端大模型负责思考，那么终端硬件的角色就是感知和交互。”谭寅亮认为，未来的硬件不再是被动等待指令，而是通过摄像头和麦克风实时理解环境。当用户盯着冰箱发呆时，智能眼镜通过分析冰箱里的存货，会直接在耳边建议“今晚可以做番茄炒蛋，虽然缺番茄，但我已经下单了，10分钟后送到”。他同时强调，出于安全考虑，用户的生物数据、即时语音处理需要在本地（On-device AI）完成，只有经过脱敏和压缩的意图才会被发送到云端，这也意味着边缘计算节点重要性越发突出。\n　　与此同时，当APP向API演变，首当其冲的是传统互联网的流量和广告生意。谭寅亮认为，未来的竞争不再是通过“卖广告位”赚钱，而是通过“竞价排名AI的推荐优先级”或“服务佣金”获利。毕竟如果用户不再打开APP，就看不到开屏广告，也不会在信息流中刷到推荐商品。但当用户下达“买双跑鞋”的指令时，AI决定推荐耐克还是阿迪达斯，将成为新的商业战场。\n　　“意图的通路、分发和匹配远比单纯的数据更重要。”王逸洲进一步分析称，原本卖给广告商的流量可能会流向新的方向，比如在AI调用第三方插件执行任务时进行分成，甚至可能会卖给流量在智能体时代被解构和拦截的超级应用。\n　　“单点崩溃”风险\n　　不过，对于用户而言，安全风险无疑是“无APP时代”必须直面的问题。\n　　斯坦伯格强调，OpenClaw有权访问你的电脑，如果你非要让它删除主目录所有文件，它可能会反复向你确认，如果你一直点“是”，它最后真会照办然后把自己也删了。\n　　谭寅亮则分析称，当我们将银行卡、社交账号、甚至法律决策权交给像OpenClaw这样拥有全权限的个人智能体时，风险将呈指数级上升。首先，安全与隐私有“单点崩溃”的风险，以前黑客需要攻破你的微信、支付宝、邮箱等多个堡垒。未来，他们只需要攻破你的Agent。一旦Agent被劫持，不仅是数据泄露，黑客可以直接操纵你的资产和社会关系。此外，若一切交互都由AI生成，人类将迎来信息茧房的极致化。\n　　“对于科技巨头，这是一场关于入口的生死之战；对于普通人，这是一次生活方式的彻底重构。未来的赢家，属于那些能让AI听懂并信任的服务提供商。”他说。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨赐","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2611140599","isCrawlerRequest":true}