“我们正在目睹一场AI创造性破坏席卷全球各行各业”！高盛合伙人：本质上，这是一次“护城河检查”

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高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky警告称，一场由人工智能驱动的"创造性破坏"正实时席卷全球各行业，本质上这是一次对企业护城河的全面检验。从上周软件行业遭遇冲击，到本周初先是保险和财富管理类股，下半周则轮到房地产服务类和物流板块。AI最初被视为对股市的利好因素，但现在正在激进地检验哪些企业真正具有可防御的竞争优势。"先卖出、后提问"的情绪在市场扩散，抛售速度加快，但除了AI担忧外并无明确...

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Goldman Sachs partner: Essentially, it's a'moat check '","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":1.5,"GSX":0.6},"content_text":"高盛合伙人Rich Privorotsky警告称，一场由人工智能驱动的\"创造性破坏\"正实时席卷全球各行业，本质上这是一次对企业护城河的全面检验。从上周软件行业遭遇冲击，到本周初先是保险和财富管理类股，下半周则轮到房地产服务类和物流板块。AI最初被视为对股市的利好因素，但现在正在激进地检验哪些企业真正具有可防御的竞争优势。\"先卖出、后提问\"的情绪在市场扩散，抛售速度加快，但除了AI担忧外并无明确催化剂。高盛合伙人Rich  Privorotsky认为这是一次护城河检查：企业的业务是否能抵御技术冲击？如果有一支机器人大军，能否颠覆现有企业？企业是否必须竞相投入或收购，否则就会被取代？Privorotsky进一步强调，需警惕美国各大股指中的CTA（商品交易顾问）触发信号。高盛目前估计，CTA将在未来一周内抛售价值15亿至20亿美元的美国股票。软件板块估值承压Rich Privorotsky认为，AI不仅没让大家躺赢，反而正在让那些想在经济里“躺平吃利息”的人无处遁形。在许多曾被认为存在护城河的领域，技术进步正迅速瓦解那些建立在经验和知识工作之上的堡垒，新进入者对现有企业构成快速挑战。而一旦AI担忧扰动市场情绪，软件和科技板块的终端价值就受到了质疑，这是当前市场面临的核心问题。Privorotsky指出，根据其交易经验，估值倍数是最难锚定的指标，只要开始被质疑，往往难以停止。目前，上市公司的估值已经从30多倍的市盈率（混合预测未来24个月）回落到了20倍出头，但私募投资组合的估值往往还维持在高得多的水平。因此这场动荡便顺着链条，从公开市场蔓延到了私募领域，并进一步波及到了私募信贷，尤其是杠杆贷款市场。市场释放增长冲击信号过去一周，美债收益率下行，而周期性股票相对防御性股票出现抛售。高盛指出，现在的行情感觉就像是一场短期的增长冲击。收益率曲线正在变平，债券还在继续上涨。据华尔街见闻，美国1月CPI同比2.4%低于预期，核心CPI降至四年来最低水平。市场对通胀的担忧减弱，这与AI将比预期更快颠覆多个行业的叙事一致。高盛认为最终结果可能在某些领域出现彻底的通缩，因为“食利者”正在失去定价权。投资者应该寻找真正的护城河在这种环境下，Rich Privorotsky建议关注拥有真正护城河的公司以及实物资产。航空航天板块感觉时机已到，空客类型的敞口值得关注。工业股应该表现良好，但需要选择受益于投资周期的公司，而非仅仅是短周期的周期性股票。实物资产是做多方向，尽管大宗商品的飙升不值得在此追高。他看好欧洲房地产投资信托基金/做多德国住宅地产，但不会触碰办公楼REITs。银行股看起来脆弱，面临四重风险：在欧洲它们是拥挤的多头头寸；几乎未计入AI颠覆或净息差压缩风险；通缩机制下美元走弱对利率曲线不利；在美国，预测市场显示民主党横扫的概率达到30%多，这显著增加监管风险。CTA抛售触发点临近Rich Privorotsky强调需警惕美国指数的CTA触发点。在北美，预计抛售最严重的不是标普500指数，而是纳斯达克100指数。标普500已跌破50日均线（6895点）和CTA短期阈值（6911点）。好消息是抛售规模仍然温和。高盛目前估计，CTA未来一周将抛售15亿至20亿美元的美国股票。此外，标普500仍高于中期阈值6723点约110点，跌破该水平将加速抛售幅度。（标普500指数在未来一个月内，不同走势情景下的资金流向预测）Rich  Privorotsky表示，随着AI每天降低进入壁垒，这是一个赢家和输家分化的市场。他无法预测明天的航运业将会是什么样子，但可以确定的是，终端估值倍数正受到质疑，这在结构上是个问题。当前环境有利于拥有真正护城河和有形价值的公司。新兴市场仍是相对更清晰的避风港，全球其他地区的交易将继续推动相对优异表现。本文转载自“华尔街见闻 ”，作者：鲍奕龙；智通财经编辑：陈思宇。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2611132561","isCrawlerRequest":true}