联想集团收入业绩均超预期，AI服务器的充足订单，较强供应链韧性有望保障盈利率稳定

开源证券02-14

AI PC、AI服务器、供应链韧性有望驱动公司业绩稳健增长AI PC渗透率稳健提升+AI服务器的充足订单有望带动公司营收平抑周期波动、较强的供应链韧性保障盈利率稳定，考虑到FY2026Q3业绩超预期，我们上调FY2026业绩，并维持FY2027-2028财年业绩预测，最终预计FY2026-2028年non-gaap归母净利润为18.1/20.7/23.6亿美元(前值为17.6/20.7/23.6...

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PC渗透率稳健提升+AI服务器的充足订单有望带动公司营收平抑周期波动、较强的供应链韧性保障盈利率稳定，考虑到FY2026Q3业绩超预期，我们上调FY2026业绩，并维持FY2027-2028财年业绩预测，最终预计FY2026-2028年non-gaap归母净利润为18.1/20.7/23.6亿美元(前值为17.6/20.7/23.6亿美元)，同比增长25.5%/14.5%/13.9%，考虑潜在可转债摊薄，当前股价对应PE估值为9.5/8.3/7.3倍，维持“买入”评级。收入业绩超预期，ISG扭亏在即FY2026Q3公司收入222.04亿美元(vs彭博一致预期207.6亿美元)，同比增长18.1%，non-gaap归母净利润5.89亿美元(vs彭博一致预期4.63亿美元)，同比增长35.5%，收入业绩均超市场预期，分业务看：(1)IDG：实现收入157.55亿美元，同比增长14.3%，2025Q3联想/行业PC出货量同比增长14.4%/9.6%(IDC数据)，联想持续优于行业。PC业务联想收入同比增长18%，可测算的均价同比增长3.2%，环比增长6%，产品结构升级趋势稳定；AI设备终端同比增长71%，在IDG中占比达到40%。opm为7.32%，同比微升0.07pct，公司应对内存、CPU等零部件涨价的供应链韧性再次得到验证；(2)ISG：实现收入51.76亿美元，同比增长31.4%，得益于GB300NVL72部署，AI基础设施收入同比增长59%，且后续业绩具备155亿美元订单储备支撑。opm为-0.21%，亏损率环比收窄，有望下个季度转正，公司通过资产重组在单季度产生2.85亿美元费用，并有望在未来3个财年年均净成本节省超2亿美元；(3)SSG：实现收入26.52亿美元，同比增长17.5%，连续四个季度实现高双位数增长，发展韧性较强，递延收益37.8亿美元(同比增长20%)，提升业务可预见性。opm为22.48%，同比提升2.12pcts。风险提示：全球IT开支不及预期，上游成本上涨，公司PC销售不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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