微软AI再次被“骂”出圈，一年狂砸上千亿美元，为何还打不赢谷歌？

雷科技02-14

最近的美国 AI 新闻是真不少，前有 OpenAI 的千亿美元融资计划，后有 Gemini 3 Deep Think 的全球屠榜。在让人感慨 AI 市场的资金之充裕和发展之迅速外，也有些不一样的声音出现，而主角恰恰是大家熟悉的微软。前段时间，微软宣布将会在 Windows 系统的开机引导和登录阶段引入 Copilot，让用户可以提前体验 Windows 的 AI 功能。对于微软的这个决定，不少网友...

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Why can't it beat Google?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"3NVD.UK":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MSFT":1.98,"GGLL":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GOOG":1.91},"content_text":"最近的美国 AI 新闻是真不少，前有 OpenAI 的千亿美元融资计划，后有 Gemini 3 Deep Think 的全球屠榜。在让人感慨 AI 市场的资金之充裕和发展之迅速外，也有些不一样的声音出现，而主角恰恰是大家熟悉的微软。前段时间，微软宣布将会在 Windows 系统的开机引导和登录阶段引入 Copilot，让用户可以提前体验 Windows 的 AI 功能。对于微软的这个决定，不少网友反应激烈：开机阶段本来就已经够烦的了，现在还要再加个 Copilot 进来干嘛？图源：微软倒也不怪网友们有如此激烈的反应，毕竟 Copilot 的使用体验一直都无法兑现微软此前的承诺，然后还要被微软按着头在各种地方使用这玩意，换谁来都得火大（国内用户可能感受不深，但是海外用户真是深受其害了）。海外一些网友对 Copilot 怨念极深，以至于在某个系统补丁出现 BUG、意外卸载了 Copilot 后，他们纷纷在论坛发帖嘲讽：“微软终于做了一些有用的新功能给我们了”。估计是用户的呼声实在太大，微软在今年年初的更新里增加了永久移除 Copilot 的方法，这个更新甚至让 PCMag（极具影响力的 PC 媒体）用“终于可以卸载 Copilot”为标题做了一个教程。说实话，微软能够把 Copilot 折腾成这个样子，也是出乎了不少人的预料。作为最早领投 OpenAI 的巨头之一，微软的 Copilot 也是最早接入 GPT 模型的智能助手，一度因为能够提供免费的 GPT 付费模型体验而走红，小雷还记得当时我们做过一次体验评测。图源：雷科技按理说，微软既有着全球最大的 PC 系统生态，又有着全球最强的 AI 大模型，应该可以赢得很轻松才对。但是事与愿违，微软在砸了一大笔钱研发 Copilot 后，突然发现自己的进度似乎还不如一些个人开发者自己捣鼓的多模态智能体。当然，你可以说这涉及到用户隐私保护、合规化设计等诸多难题，但是我们所有人都无法否认的一个事实就是：微软正在 AI 生态中逐渐掉队，而且这个“巨人”的伙伴们还有着各自的“小心思”。作为对比，同为科技巨头的谷歌就在 AI 领域里“大杀四方”，前段时间更是拿下了与苹果的合作。这不仅打破了 OpenAI 在苹果生态的独占，成功将 Gemini 塞入这个全球最大的单一智能生态，再加上谷歌对安卓系统的统治力，说 Gemini 即将一统移动市场都毫不夸张。同样是全球科技大厂，同样都在 AI 领域投入巨大，为什么微软和谷歌的 AI 业务却呈现出截然不同的走向呢？微软砸钱，事倍功半在小雷看来，首要的问题是成本。微软的 Copilot 一直都以 GPT 大模型为 AI 底座，这也带来了非常高的运营成本（OpenAI 的 token 价格全球最高）。即使有着 OpenAI 大股东、云算力供应商等诸多身份，微软与 OpenAI 也一直在成本等问题上存在分歧。另外，微软的算力中心严重依赖英伟达的算力卡。在全球需求量激增的情况下，英伟达的算力卡价格也是水涨船高，进一步拉高了微软的算力成本，这也导致微软在投入了巨额资金后，却给人一种事倍功半的感觉。不过，OpenAI 是微软目前还能保持“AI 优势”的唯一依仗。所以即使有着各种矛盾，最终微软也是做了让步，不仅将重组持股降到 27%，还允许 OpenAI 引入其他算力供应商。图源：微软而 OpenAI 也承诺增加采购微软的算力资源，至少在明面上保持着和谐。不过小雷觉得两者多少有点“貌合神离”的味道。因为在前段时间，微软的 AI 首席执行官 Mustafa Suleyman 明确表示，微软正在加速训练自己的基础模型，目标是实现“自给自足”，摆脱对 OpenAI 的依赖。反观谷歌，虽然也在四处出击，投资那些 AI 独角兽，却也在持续加码自研的基础大模型 Gemini。并且在 AI 浪潮到来之前，谷歌就已经开始大规模部署自研的算力芯片，用来降低数据中心的建设成本。这让谷歌在全球算力卡紧缺的情况下，仍然能以更低的成本搭建算力中心。此外，谷歌自研的 TPU 集群在能效上的出色表现，也使其能够用更低的成本应付上亿用户的持续访问。所以谷歌才能在 OpenAI、Claude 等 AI 大厂上线高价会员后，通过“免费 Pro 会员”来疯狂抢占市场。不仅如此，针对企业的办公需求，谷歌还在 Workspace 办公套件里用低订阅价格提供进阶版的 AI 服务。以最多企业订购的 Business Standard 方案为例，虽然基础月费上谷歌比微软贵了 2-4 美元/月（微软将在 7 月份涨到同价格），但是微软的 AI 插件功能需要额外支付 21 美元/月，谷歌则是免费提供。图源：谷歌每人每月数十美元的支出差距可不是小数目，特别是对于本身利润就单薄的中小型企业来说，只要两者的体验区别不是很大，那么谷歌无疑是更好的选择。而且，谷歌还把 AI 基础服务直接打包进 Workspace 的原有高阶订阅计划里，用户无需再支付额外的费用即可使用。说白了，谷歌就是用免费使用来潜移默化地影响用户，当你习惯了 Gemini 在 Gmail 等一系列日常工具中的存在时，就很难再转到别的 AI 生态了（特别是对于企业而言）。而谷歌之所以能够用低价抢占市场，其根本原因就是“自研模型 + 自研算力集群”，这一点是微软难以企及的。单枪匹马，不如团队作战首先必须要肯定的是，在 OpenAI 的大模型加持下，Copilot 的日常体验其实还可以，特别是在问答、解析以及辅助写作等方面都表现不错。而且用户现在仍然可以通过 Copilot 获得免费的 GPT-5 模型额度，甚至提供了深入研究等选项 ChatGPT 里付费用户才能使用的功能，微软的“慷慨”让 Copilot 至今仍有过亿的月活。虽然从体验和用户活跃度来看，Copilot 并不算失败，但是它的表现显然没有达到大家的预期。用户希望拥有的是一个可以帮忙干活、做事、甚至直接操作电脑的 AI 助手，而非一个“看着屏幕指挥我点哪里”的语音助手。对，微软确实上线了支持屏幕分析的模式，但是该模式下 AI 只能告诉你屏幕上有什么，然后根据你的需求帮你分析屏幕上的文字含义和按钮的用途，再指挥你操作电脑。喔，我的上帝，这真是一个伟大的发明。你说我们是否可以给这个模式加入一些协助点击功能呢？那么就不用坐在电脑前等着 AI 慢悠悠地把话说完，然后再操作。考虑到微软从 2024 年开始到现在已经投入了一千多亿美元，这个要求应该不过分吧？图源：雷科技你说用户隐私必须得到确保？那请问 Recall 是什么情况？保存并记录用户过去的所有浏览和操作记录岂不是更加离谱？说白了，微软的开发者就给我一种左右脑互搏的感觉，他们既可以在 Recall 上给出恐怖的高权限，又能在 Copilot 这样的常用助手上锁死操作权限。曾经还有人嘲讽谷歌船大难掉头，现在看来微软才是真的“难掉头”的那个。Copilot 的功能开发明显受限于 Windows 系统的安全保障，作为用户对于微软的谨慎态度自然是支持的，但是这也无疑减缓了他们在 AI 生态层面的进度。作为对比，谷歌并没有在这些吃力不讨好的 AI 功能上花费太多心思，而是将研发资金投入到基础模型的迭代升级上，然后做好 API 接口，自然会有别的开发者来帮谷歌解决软件生态层面的问题。谷歌的自信则是源自 Gemini，作为首个真正的“原生多模态”AI 大模型，Gemini 可以更简单地处理多模态信息，这也是其在 AI 生图、AI 生视频等领域可以快速弯道超车的原因。图源:谷歌而对于开发者来说，Gemini 的这个特性也让他们不需要处理复杂的多模态转化问题，并且不需要使用 GPT-4o 以上的模型就能得到原生多模态模型的性能，其背后的成本差距就更大了。另外，把合规化和隐私等问题丢给第三方开发者解决，虽然有甩锅的嫌疑，但是对于谷歌这样的科技巨头来说显然可以省去很多麻烦。或许是意识到了纯云端架构与系统深度捆绑的局限性，从去年开始，微软也与联想、惠普等头部 PC 企业展开合作，部署深度优化的端侧 AI 软件来完善体验。可见再难掉头的船，在撞了“冰山”后，还是懂得另寻出路的。现在论胜败还为时过早不过，若是因为微软在最近两年的 AI 竞赛中表现不佳，就断言微软失败的话，恐怕有点操之过急了。在小雷看来，目前微软的种种碰壁，一是因为成本过高，二是因为智能体技术还不成熟，而这两个问题的解法都已经有了苗头。首先是算力问题，目前 Copilot 的最大问题是对云端算力的高度依赖，导致算力成本居高不下。想要解决这个问题，关键在于两点：1、优化云端成本；2、强化端侧算力。前者微软已经在着手解决，这里就不再重复；后者则主要依靠英特尔等芯片厂商。而从去年开始，他们就已经推出了多款具备高算力特性的处理器。特别是 AMD，直接把平台综合端侧算力干到了接近 200 TOPS，已经满足中轻度的 AI 大模型本地运行需求。另一方面，英伟达的显卡端侧算力也在飞快膨胀。以 RTX 5070 为例，其稀疏算力对比前代直接翻倍，在桌面端就已经拥有接近 1000 TOPS 的算力，超过了前代的 RTX 4080 Super。单从算力来说，已经可以满足多数 AI 模型的推理需求，唯一的问题只在于显存。对于微软来说，他们只需要等到硬件厂商把端侧算力卷上来，就可以大幅度缩减云端算力的占比，而端侧算力甚至可以说是“零成本”的。当然，端侧算力并非微软专用，但是作为 Windows 系统的掌舵者，微软依然是各家都绕不开的核心节点。所以，现在就谈论胜败还为时尚早。只要微软还手握 PC 终端这个最大的 AI 算力分发入口，就随时保留着重回棋桌的入场券。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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