大摩——互联网行业：亚马逊加码杂货业务优势……为何我们策略性买入Instacart（附下载）

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免费体验“高时效”国际投行研报“T+0至T+1”“原研报”可至底部下载大摩——互联网行业：亚马逊加码杂货业务优势……为何我们策略性买入Instacart（CART）精华翻译亚马逊针对杂货业务的新投资与用户接纳趋势，彰显其在这一关键消费支出领域的进一步突破，我们仍对亚马逊保持乐观态度。而这一消息也为Instacart（CART）创造了策略性买入机会——目标价存在27%的上涨空间，其当前估值处于低谷，...

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Why we strategically buy Instacart (with download)","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZZ":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"AMZU":0.6,"AMZN":1.95,"CART":1.93,"AMZY":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"AMZD":0.6},"content_text":"免费体验“高时效”国际投行研报“T+0至T+1”“原研报”可至底部下载大摩——互联网行业：亚马逊加码杂货业务优势……为何我们策略性买入Instacart（CART）精华翻译亚马逊针对杂货业务的新投资与用户接纳趋势，彰显其在这一关键消费支出领域的进一步突破，我们仍对亚马逊保持乐观态度。而这一消息也为Instacart（CART）创造了策略性买入机会——目标价存在27%的上涨空间，其当前估值处于低谷，后续有望迎来预期上调，且有四大理由支撑2026年业绩表现向好。亚马逊杂货业务：乘势加码并优化策略。亚马逊宣布多项杂货业务战略更新：计划未来几年新增100多家全食超市（Whole Foods），在现有550家门店基础上扩张18%，同时关闭部分亚马逊生鲜（Amazon Fresh）及亚马逊Go门店；此外，亚马逊披露其已跻身美国前三大连锁超市，美国市场杂货及日常必需品商品交易总额（GMV）超1500亿美元，每年有1.5亿以上消费者通过亚马逊购买杂货（而Dash、Uber、CART的月度杂货购物用户分别约为1300万、1300万、900万）。同日达生鲜商品表现亮眼，自2025年1月以来增长40倍，在已开通该服务的区域，90%的热门订单为同日达生鲜商品。线下杂货市场规模达1.7万亿美元，是最大的线下未数字化市场，未来通过智能购物服务有望进一步数字化，亚马逊的持续投入对其北美市场长期GMV增长构成利好。我们维持对亚马逊的“增持”评级，目标价315美元，认为杂货业务的成功是2026年美国市场GMV及营收被低估的推动因素。CART再现熟悉行情，股价回调催生业绩期策略性买入机会。亚马逊的杂货业务公告引发市场对CART的极致短期恐慌，其估值已压缩至约6倍2027年调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（我们的预期），接近历史低谷水平，经增长调整后较同行折价约33%。2024年10月曾出现类似情况，当时受亚马逊和Dash的竞争担忧影响，CART股价跌至相近估值区间，但随后其业绩及指引好于预期，推动股价重估，形成策略性做多机会。我们预计CART将于2月12日发布的2025年第四季度业绩将重现这一态势——我们对其2025年第四季度及2026年第一季度息税折旧摊销前利润的预期分别高于市场共识4%和5%，对2025年第四季度、2026年第一季度及2026财年总交易价值（GTV）的预期与市场共识一致，同时正密切关注用户行为的积极变化及线下杂货支出向线上转移的速度。因此，尽管我们维持对CART的“持有”评级，但在业绩发布前持策略性乐观态度，看好其业绩好于预期推动股价重估，目标价48美元。四大理由缓解CART短期竞争担忧：1. 多赢家并存空间：美国线上杂货渗透率仅约15%，仍有1.7万亿美元的线下市场空间待挖掘。亚马逊、MMT、Dash、Uber、CART等企业均在角逐这一市场，短期内（2-3年）所有参与者均有望实现稳健增长。2. 粘性订阅用户基础：CART预计拥有超600万订阅用户，月均消费约400美元以上。订阅用户的消费行为改变需时，为我们的短期预期提供更强支撑；此外，消费者愿为便利性支付更高成本的趋势，也有望让CART的短期增长具备更强韧性。3. 短期智能购物利好：CART拥有零售商库存、物流及消费者数据集优势，有望把握智能杂货购物机遇。尽管长期面临高毛利广告收入的潜在风险，但CART与ChatGPT的合作可能成为被低估的短期增长驱动力，其平台即将推出的智能购物服务也将带来额外增长空间。4. 亚马逊短期对小订单威胁更大：亚马逊早期生鲜及易腐商品业务主要聚焦小订单及附加购买，而非CART侧重的每周全品类大订单，因此对CART核心业务的短期冲击有限。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2611113734","isCrawlerRequest":true}