内存涨价，智能手机SoC出货量将下降7%

电子工程专辑02-12

全球智能手机行业正步入一个由内存和存储定义的新阶段。曾经作为辅助部件的DRAM和NAND Flash，如今已跃升为决定设备性能、成本结构与市场竞争格局的核心要素。根据市场研究机构Counterpoint Research的报告，内存成本的急剧上升正在深刻重塑智能手机系统级芯片（SoC）的产业生态，迫使原始设备制造商（OEM）调整策略，并可能将市场的全面复苏推迟至2027年以后。物料清单的结构性转变...

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7%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPW":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":1.88,"AAPY":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"MU":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":1.85,"AAPU":0.6},"content_text":"全球智能手机行业正步入一个由内存和存储定义的新阶段。曾经作为辅助部件的DRAM和NAND Flash，如今已跃升为决定设备性能、成本结构与市场竞争格局的核心要素。根据市场研究机构Counterpoint Research的报告，内存成本的急剧上升正在深刻重塑智能手机系统级芯片（SoC）的产业生态，迫使原始设备制造商（OEM）调整策略，并可能将市场的全面复苏推迟至2027年以后。物料清单的结构性转变：内存成本占比跃升至20%智能手机的物料清单（BoM）正在经历一场静默但根本性的变革。仅仅数年前，内存还是成本构成中相对次要的部分。Counterpoint Research的数据显示，2020年，在iPhone 12 Pro Max（配置6GB DRAM和128GB NAND）中，内存成本仅占总组件成本的约8%。然而，随着设备端人工智能（AI）、高级移动游戏以及高分辨率图像处理需求的爆炸式增长，对内存容量和速度的要求水涨船高。这一趋势在最新旗舰机型上体现得尤为明显。据报道，2025年的iPhone 17 Pro Max（预计配置12GB DRAM和256GB NAND）中，内存成本占比已上升至10%左右。而对于目前普遍配备12GB-16GB LPDDR5X内存和512GB-1TB UFS 4.0存储的安卓旗舰机型而言，在内存价格持续上涨的背景下，其成本可能占到整机BoM的20%甚至更高。这意味着，消费者为旗舰手机支付的近五分之一费用，可能直接流向了内存芯片。供应紧张与成本飙升：一场“完美风暴”当前内存成本的上涨并非单一因素所致，而是由需求激增与供应转移共同引发的“完美风暴”。一方面，智能手机自身功能升级驱动了LPDDR5X/UFS 4.0等新一代内存的快速普及。另一方面，人工智能数据中心在全球范围的急速扩张，导致内存供应商将产能重心和资本开支优先转向高利润的服务器市场，特别是高频宽存储器（HBM）和DDR5内存。这导致用于消费电子领域的传统DRAM（如LPDDR4）产能受到挤压。Counterpoint Research指出，存储市场已进入“超级牛市”阶段，供应商议价能力达到历史高位。其预测显示，2025年第四季度至2026年第二季度，内存价格可能经历多轮大幅上涨，累计涨幅惊人。SoC市场分化：整合者占优，以量取胜者承压内存成本的剧增，与智能手机市场本身的宏观变化相互叠加，正在重塑SoC供应商的竞争格局。Counterpoint Research预计，2026年全球智能手机出货量将同比下降6.1%，而智能手机SoC出货量将下降7%。在此背景下，市场分化加剧。资料来源：2025年12月全球智能手机SoC出货量预测具备垂直整合能力或高端品牌优势的公司展现出更强的韧性。苹果和三星凭借其庞大的采购规模、强大的供应链管理能力以及高端产品组合，能更好地消化成本压力并维持利润率。与此同时，自研SoC趋势为谷歌等公司创造了机遇，其凭借AI差异化优势和市场扩张，预计将实现显著增长。三星推进2纳米工艺的Exynos 2600芯片，正是其强化内部战略的体现。相比之下，严重依赖中低端、以销量为导向的供应商面临巨大挑战。Counterpoint Research报告指出，紫光展锐因其业务过度集中于正在萎缩的低端4G市场，可能遭遇最严重的下滑。联发科和高通则处于“喜忧参半”的境地，其高端平台的表现虽能部分抵消大众市场的疲软，但整体仍承受压力。OEM的艰难抉择：功能权衡、组合优化与云端探索面对持续的成本压力，智能手机制造商不得不做出艰难的策略调整。对于入门级和中端市场，OEM厂商可能被迫采取“减配”策略，例如降低内存容量、使用旧一代存储规格，或者推迟新机发布以控制成本。部分厂商已通过提高终端售价来转嫁成本，但这在价格敏感的市场区间会抑制需求。在高端市场，完全的性能妥协并不可行，品牌商更倾向于优化产品组合，例如更精细地规划不同内存配置版本的价格与占比，确保旗舰体验的同时管理好BoM成本。此外，探索“云卸载”方案成为一条潜在路径，即将部分对算力和内存要求极高的AI处理任务转移至云端，以减轻对设备端硬件需求的持续增长压力。平衡中等待正常化行业普遍认为，在内存供应紧张得到根本性缓解之前，智能手机市场难以实现强劲复苏。Counterpoint Research等机构预计，市场可能要到2027年下半年或2028年初才能趋于正常化。在此之前，行业将在成本、性能和创新之间持续寻找脆弱的平衡点。人工智能仍是维持市场需求和推动硬件升级的关键长期动力。Counterpoint Research预测，生成式AI智能手机的累计出货量将在2026年第三季度突破10亿部。然而，这场由内存成本引发的变局，最终将加速行业洗牌。领先的OEM厂商对自研芯片的加码，在寻求差异化体验的同时，也旨在加强对核心成本部件的控制力，这将继续给传统的通用芯片供应商带来结构性压力。最终，能够在这场由内存主导的成本重塑中灵活应对、并持续以创新吸引消费者的企业，将在下一个市场周期中占据更有利的位置。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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