从高盛到黑石，华尔街巨头都来站台：软件不会垮

华尔街见闻02-12

针对近期软件板块因人工智能（AI）威胁论而遭遇的猛烈抛售，华尔街各大金融机构的高层正试图向投资者传递一个明确信号：关于软件企业末日的传言被严重夸大了。上周，受AI初创公司Anthropic发布新工具的消息影响，Salesforce和Adobe等软件巨头股价大幅下挫，数千亿美元市值蒸发。市场恐慌情绪蔓延，投资者担心AI将取代传统软件功能，从而摧毁该行业的商业模式。对此，来自高盛、黑石、...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765548><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>针对近期软件板块因人工智能（AI）威胁论而遭遇的猛烈抛售，华尔街各大金融机构的高层正试图向投资者传递一个明确信号：关于软件企业末日的传言被严重夸大了。\n上周，受AI初创公司Anthropic发布新工具的消息影响，Salesforce和Adobe等软件巨头股价大幅下挫，数千亿美元市值蒸发。市场恐慌情绪蔓延，投资者担心AI将取代传统软件功能，从而摧毁该行业的商业模式。\n对此，来自高盛、黑石、阿波罗全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765548\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345770308.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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collapse","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":1.5,"GSX":0.6,"VGT":1.5,"BX":1.5},"content_text":"针对近期软件板块因人工智能（AI）威胁论而遭遇的猛烈抛售，华尔街各大金融机构的高层正试图向投资者传递一个明确信号：关于软件企业末日的传言被严重夸大了。\n上周，受AI初创公司Anthropic发布新工具的消息影响，Salesforce和Adobe等软件巨头股价大幅下挫，数千亿美元市值蒸发。市场恐慌情绪蔓延，投资者担心AI将取代传统软件功能，从而摧毁该行业的商业模式。\n对此，来自高盛、黑石、阿波罗全球管理和KKR的高管们在本周密集表态。他们指出，目前的市场反应属于“无差别”抛售，虽然AI确实会带来颠覆，但认为所有软件公司都将过时的观点过于宽泛且缺乏依据。\n在安抚市场情绪的同时，这些华尔街巨头也在极力淡化自身在软件领域的风险敞口。他们强调，尽管软件行业一直是私募股权投资的热门标的，但其投资组合的多元化足以抵御单一行业的波动，且部分机构已提前调整了持仓结构。\n“剧烈的技术周期”与定价权之问\n尽管整体基调是安抚，但投资大佬们并未否认行业面临的变革。阿波罗资产管理部门联席总裁John Zito本周三在接受CNBC采访时直言，软件行业不会消失，但商业逻辑将发生变化。\n“我们在Apollo没人认为软件会消失。事实上，我们实际上认为软件的使用量会大大增加，”Zito表示，“这只是一个问题——你会为此支付多少钱？”\nZito警告称，市场将经历一个“非常剧烈的技术周期”，并会出现赢家和输家。他特别提醒投资者，不要仅凭目前的营收状况来判断软件公司的前景，因为这些公司目前的表现尚可。他用了一个生动的类比：“这就像在iPhone 1问世时说黑莓（BlackBerry）依然会过得很好一样。”\n恐慌的根源：AI对订阅模式的冲击\n此次市场恐慌的直接导火索是Anthropic宣布为其Cowork助手推出新的法律工具，旨在辅助起草和研究任务。这一消息引发了投资者对各类软件提供商命运的担忧，导致Salesforce和Adobe的股价在上周暴跌，并在周三继续下行。\n\n\n在Anthropic发布消息之前，投资者就已经对数千亿美元涌入AI领域可能颠覆的行业感到不安。软件公司被视为特别脆弱的目标，因为它们通常通过收取订阅费和许可费来盈利。\n多年来，软件业务因其高利润率和稳定的经常性收入，一直是私募股权公司和贷款机构眼中的优质资产。如果这些软件公司的估值持续暴跌，可能意味着这些投资机构将面临巨额损失。\n区分对待：“无差别”抛售中的机会\n面对行业的整体下挫，黑石集团首席财务官Michael Chae认为市场反应缺乏理性。他在周二的美国银行会议上表示，尽管近期针对该行业的交易是“无差别的”，但随着时间的推移，结果将出现分化。\n“我们预计，规模较大、根基深厚的企业将受到更好的保护，在许多情况下，它们将成为AI的受益者，”Chae说道。他强调，市场不应一概而论地看空所有软件资产。\n高盛首席执行官David Solomon在周二的瑞银（UBS）会议上也表达了类似的观点。他承认公司预计AI将扰乱市场，但他认为“过去一周的叙事有点过于宽泛了”。\n巨头自保：风险敞口“微不足道”\n在为行业辩护的同时，各大机构也在向投资者保证其自身的安全性。\nKKR首席财务官Robert Lewin在本周早些时候的瑞银会议上表示，大型资产管理公司的投资多样性将有助于保护它们免受AI颠覆的影响。他透露，KKR约有15%的私募股权投资暴露于软件公司，占其总资产的约7%。\nLewin同时指出，公司看到了AI应用带来的风险，并在近年来出售了一些业务。\n高盛的David 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