美团截胡京东阿里，下一站：朴朴超市

商业观察家02-08

2025年，中国外卖即时零售市场的三大撒钱“金主”——美团、京东、阿里，都参与到了叮咚买菜的并购案中。而最终，美团“截胡”了所有。早在2026年1月上旬，有关叮咚买菜的“归属”，市场的声音就比较一致了，那时，接近京东的多方人士传递出来的声音都是一致的：京东确定要收购叮咚买菜，流传出来的一个价格版本则是：5、60亿元人民币。当时，京东与叮咚买菜已达成了并购初步意向，但双方还没有签字。《商业观察家》...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260208235748a6e28f38&s=b><strong>商业观察家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年，中国外卖即时零售市场的三大撒钱“金主”——美团、京东、阿里，都参与到了叮咚买菜的并购案中。而最终，美团“截胡”了所有。早在2026年1月上旬，有关叮咚买菜的“归属”，市场的声音就比较一致了，那时，接近京东的多方人士传递出来的声音都是一致的：京东确定要收购叮咚买菜，流传出来的一个价格版本则是：5、60亿元人民币。当时，京东与叮咚买菜已达成了并购初步意向，但双方还没有签字。《商业观察家》...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260208235748a6e28f38&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2488822045.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ CHINA HEALTHY LIVING \"AT\" (USD) 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Supermarket","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"MPNGY":1.97,"JD":1.91,"09618":1.91,"09988":1.87,"03690":1.97,"BABA":1.87,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"METmain":0.6},"content_text":"2025年，中国外卖即时零售市场的三大撒钱“金主”——美团、京东、阿里，都参与到了叮咚买菜的并购案中。而最终，美团“截胡”了所有。早在2026年1月上旬，有关叮咚买菜的“归属”，市场的声音就比较一致了，那时，接近京东的多方人士传递出来的声音都是一致的：京东确定要收购叮咚买菜，流传出来的一个价格版本则是：5、60亿元人民币。当时，京东与叮咚买菜已达成了并购初步意向，但双方还没有签字。《商业观察家》后续也在跟进此次并购案进展，我们当时的疑惑是，为何市场传并购意向已达成，却一二十天都还没能签字。这就是后来众所周知的故事了——美团登场“截胡”了叮咚买菜。2月5日，美团公告，以7.17亿美元初始代价收购剥离海外业务的叮咚买菜全部已发行股份，同时，转让方——叮咚买菜股东等可从目标集团提取不超过2.8亿美元现金。剥离了海外资产业务的叮咚买菜收购案，“总值”达到了9.97亿美元。而至于京东为何会被“截胡”？一些市场人士对《商业观察家》称：“因为出价低，及决策慢。”一截胡围绕美团高价“截胡”叮咚买菜一事，当下，市场有诸多解读，比如美团想要叮咚买菜的商品力、想要巩固华东市场、想要更好做供应链金融、想要通过前置仓养它的智能技术。等等。但这些可能都不是最直接的原因。最直接的原因是：美团想要华东市场的仓均订单密度。有市场人士对《商业观察家》称：“即时零售的订单密度很重要，区域规模也很重要。美团收购叮咚买菜，是买华东的市场规模，此笔收购将会大大增加美团的华东仓均订单密度，而高订单密度会带来盈利能力的爆增。”“收购后，假使美团旗下的小象超市华东市场营收130亿元+叮咚买菜200亿元营收，那整体营收就变成了330亿，在营收增加150%的情况下，利润则可能会增加300%，甚至是400%。”“而假如是京东收购了叮咚买菜，京东后续则肯定会增资，增资投入华东市场再打几年（京东在华东没有前置仓业务基础，收购叮咚买菜，京东后续还需要继续增资投入来打市场，因此，京东未来还会有持续的投入压力，这可能也是京东此次想更低价格收购叮咚买菜的原因）。由此，对于美团而言，如果叮咚买菜被对手收购，未来再通过竞争来取胜，那美团在华东市场可能需要花费20亿美元以上的代价，远超过其当下10亿美元收购叮咚买菜的花费。”所以，这可能就是美团会做出收购叮咚买菜决策的原因。而收购叮咚买菜实现的华东市场更好规模与更高的仓均订单密度，所带来的华东市场盈利能力爆涨后，美团于华东市场的每个前置仓所能带来的“增量”利润，也将能支撑其后续的快速扩张——有利润才能快速开仓，以及更快速复制华东与全国。二订单密度基于本地发货小时达履约的前置仓生鲜，与基于大仓发货全国的次日达快递电商业务，在生意模型上有很大不同。快递电商的决胜项是流量，聚集全国的流量订单来做产地大仓发货，只要有流量，就能把产地发货做起来。至于单个城市，及单个城市中的单个小区的订单密度，则要求没有那么高，因为次日达，或几日达履约，对订单密度的要求没有那么高，它要的是“大仓流量”。所以，在过去阿里巴巴一家独大的时候，基于社交带来的全国流量增量，拼多多能冒出来；基于短视频流量，抖音电商也能做起来。只要有流量增量，快递电商领域就能冒出新玩家。而当互联网人口流量红利到顶之后，当中国人都已经成为互联网“居民”之后，快递电商的发展红利期也到顶了，这些年，就再也没有新玩家能冒出来了。由此而来的问题则是，“人口红利”到顶之后，中国电商未来还要怎么发展？方向之一，就是从“大仓流量红利”的发展逻辑，切换到“履约红利”、“消费频次红利”的发展逻辑。即通快速履约——随时随地下单再小时达配送到家，来拉存量用户市场的消费频次，及商品周转水平，这就是即时零售。但前置仓即时零售跟快递电商的玩法是不一样的，竞争逻辑也不一样。相比快递电商，前置仓即时零售对订单密度的要求就要高得多，实际上，能否竞争取胜的关键就是订单密度。比如，前置仓是把商品仓库前置到离消费者近的地方，做本地发货，就近履约，不是发货全国，那么，要实现仓端运营效率，就需要订单密度支撑。仓内分拣员工的高效“满开”，以及骑手配送成本的降低——骑手单次实现多单配送，每单配送费用进而能降低，配送成本能降下来，履约时效也能提升。这些需要订单密度支撑。前置仓的第一大成本项是履约成本，因为小时达“最后一公里”配送成本刚性，由此，如何优化履约成本？还是需要把订单密度做起来，通过规模摊薄成本。最后，前置仓要做到1小时内配送履约，单个前置仓就只能覆盖3-5公里的配送半径。然而，这3-5公里范围内的居住人口与流量订单是“恒定”的，人口总量不会因为你的业务而增加或减少，所以，它的流量池是“固定”的。由此，订单密度就成为了决胜项。举个例子，假使一个小区市场，每天的总单量只有100个小时达到家订单，而养活一个前置仓需要这个小区贡献60个订单，那么，谁率先拿到60单的前置仓就能存活，其他玩家后续可能就只能退出了。而在其他玩家退出之后，这个小区剩下的40个订单，“赢者通吃”。这些使得前置仓即时零售跟快递电商有很大的不同，次日达，或几日达快递电商，对于订单密度的要求没有前置仓即时零售高。由此，美团收购叮咚买菜，其实就是要做高华东市场的仓均订单密度。这是前置仓生鲜行业并购整合的一条“主线”。三下一站而基于订单密度这条“主线”，再来看自营前置仓生鲜赛道的走向。当下，自营前置仓生鲜赛道，能做到区域订单密度，及百亿级年销的企业，主要有六家企业，分别是小象超市、山姆会员店、盒马、朴朴超市、叮咚买菜，以及永辉。小象超市、山姆会员店、盒马都是大资金巨头的资产，在即时零售正处于抢市场的阶段下，在竞争还“有望”的情况的下，巨头们都不太可能出售它们的前置仓资产。剩下的三家企业，叮咚买菜则已经“花落有主”，永辉超市的前置仓到家业务这些年受关店调整等因素影响，销售规模一直在下滑，现在游离在百亿“边缘”。其当下所涉足的任何一个城市市场，永辉当下都没有能拿到绝对“领先”的市场份额。那么，剩下的一个“百亿玩家”，就只有朴朴超市了。朴朴超市与叮咚买菜一样，都是一家十年前左右时间，随着前置仓业态的兴起，而差不多同批次冒出的一家创业公司。区别在于，朴朴超市做的是800-1000平米、1万支SKU左右的大型前置仓模型，叮咚买菜做的是100-300平米、3300支SKU左右的小型前置仓模型。在覆盖区域市场上，叮咚买菜的核心市场盘是在江浙沪华东市场，其于全国其他区域市场的订单密度则不足，且盈亏压力很大。朴朴超市的核心市场盘则是福建与广东市场，在这两块市场，它做出了订单密度，其余所进入的城市市场，如武汉成都等市场，目前看，朴朴也有更大的盈亏压力。现在的情况是，随着叮咚买菜收购案的落地，接下来，就有理由相信，同类型的朴朴超市，巨头对其的相关并购整合，有可能也快了。那么，2025年中国外卖即时零售市场的三大烧钱“金主”——阿里、美团、京东，谁会对朴朴超市更感兴趣，谁会更想要福建、广东市场的仓均订单密度？先说福建市场。阿里旗下的盒马、美团旗下的小象超市，以及京东，当下都没有能成功进入福建市场。盒马早期曾“借助”新华都的供应链进入过福州市场，但没有能站住，退出来了。小象超市近期则一直有声音说要进入福州，但还没能落地。许多市场人士认为，小象超市如果进入福州，短期两三年内，恐怕也很难拿下能超越朴朴超市的订单份额。朴朴超市目前在福州福建前置仓生鲜市场，是绝对领先的玩家。京东在福建则没有前置仓生鲜资产。所以，从福建市场来看，这三家大资金巨头如果想要把自营前置仓赛道做成一个全国性的生意，那么，它们可能都有收购朴朴超市的需求。朴朴超市的福建市场是盈利的。至于谁更急需，好像这三家巨头都“可缓可急”，“可缓”是因为这三家巨头企业都还没能进入福建市场，那么，在福建区域市场，它们之间也没有很急迫的竞争压力。“可急”则是，如果谁率先在福建市场建立主导性存在，那谁就能在福建形成“先发”优势。至于谁收购朴朴，能在福建市场产生出更好的协同价值，能持续提升福建订单密度，似乎好像都不是太明显。因为如果它们能在福建做出大增量，那它们可能就早进福建市场了。广东市场，则有比较有意思一点，它跟华东市场，有更大的类似。一个是与华东一样，广东的即时零售市场盘很大。由此，广东市场也像华东市场那样，当下有更多玩家“参与”。而不是像福建市场那样，朴朴超市基本主导了市场。由此，在广东市场，行业横向整合带来的订单密度提升，就可能会有更大的价值，能带来更大的利润空间价值。目前在广东，小象超市、朴朴超市、山姆前置仓处于领先地位，三家的小时达到家年销售体量，可能都在百亿左右。盒马、叮咚买菜、京东等玩家则可能处于次要位置。具体到朴朴超市，其在广东市场，相比叮咚买菜在华东市场，则没有那么大的份额领先优势，当下，朴朴超市在广东的销售体量，可能相当于叮咚买菜在华东销售规模的一半多一点。叮咚买菜在江浙沪华东自营前置仓市场份额超过30%。同时，朴朴超市在广东市场与小象超市的重合度，相比叮咚买菜在华东市场与小象超市的重合度，可能更高。因为小象超市与朴朴超市当下都主要是以大仓模型来打市场。且在自有品牌业务方面，朴朴超市做得相对比较晚，从时间沉淀上来讲，相对叮咚买菜，朴朴超市的自有品牌业务当下可能要相对稍微弱一点。所以，谁会对朴朴超市的广东市场更感兴趣？如果借鉴华东市场的“经验”来讲，广东自营前置仓市场份额暂时不领先的巨头玩家，有可能会更感兴趣一点。那就是阿里、京东。阿里的问题可能是，它还会为盒马再投资吗？之前，为了盒马做线下店，阿里投资了高鑫零售，还曾参与麦德龙中国的竞购，但是在2025年，阿里以“骨折价”把高鑫零售甩卖掉了。由此，在切换到纯前置仓赛道的竞争后，阿里还有大决心来为盒马来做大额收购投资吗？来弥补盒马于广东市场的不足吗？京东，则很早前就洽谈过朴朴超市，对于朴朴超市是感兴趣的，上次没有谈拢的原因，可能是价格因素。至于美团，原本我们认为，美团在做了小象超市之后，会像之前一样，只要是美团亲自下场做的业务，就不会再去做同类型的行业横向收购，但是美团这次收购了叮咚买菜。所以，美团也成为了一个重要“选项”。不过，在广东市场，小象超市与朴朴超市处于领先位置，份额领先，这两者的“合并”，尤其是在美团已经订立协议收购叮咚买菜之后，会不会引发监管问题，不好说。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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