摩根士丹利：铜价受战略储备支撑，金属市场趋势仍向好

信息量有点大02-12

摩根士丹利2026 年 2 月 6 日金属市场报告聚焦铜、铝、贵金属等核心品种，核心结论：铜市受全球战略储备与供应约束支撑，虽短期中国需求疲软但回调空间有限；铝、镍、贵金属等品种呈现供需分化，金属市场整体波动加大但长期趋势向好，新需求与供应扰动为核心驱动。一、核心焦点：铜市场—— 战略储备 + 供应紧张，短期波动不改长期强势铜市场处于“宏观强、微观弱” 的矛盾格局，战略储备与供应约束构成长期支撑，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610929720?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-12 19:07","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2610929720","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"摩根士丹利：铜价受战略储备支撑，金属市场趋势仍向好","media":"信息量有点大","content":"<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利2026 年 2 月 6 日金属市场报告聚焦铜、铝、贵金属等核心品种，核心结论：铜市受全球战略储备与供应约束支撑，虽短期中国需求疲软但回调空间有限；铝、镍、贵金属等品种呈现供需分化，金属市场整体波动加大但长期趋势向好，新需求与供应扰动为核心驱动。一、核心焦点：铜市场—— 战略储备 + 供应紧张，短期波动不改长期强势铜市场处于“宏观强、微观弱” 的矛盾格局，战略储备与供应约束构成长期支撑，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212210150a49c9c2d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利：铜价受战略储备支撑，金属市场趋势仍向好</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利：铜价受战略储备支撑，金属市场趋势仍向好\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-12 19:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212210150a49c9c2d&s=b><strong>信息量有点大</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利2026 年 2 月 6 日金属市场报告聚焦铜、铝、贵金属等核心品种，核心结论：铜市受全球战略储备与供应约束支撑，虽短期中国需求疲软但回调空间有限；铝、镍、贵金属等品种呈现供需分化，金属市场整体波动加大但长期趋势向好，新需求与供应扰动为核心驱动。一、核心焦点：铜市场—— 战略储备 + 供应紧张，短期波动不改长期强势铜市场处于“宏观强、微观弱” 的矛盾格局，战略储备与供应约束构成长期支撑，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212210150a49c9c2d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2097828631.EUR","symbol_name":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212210150a49c9c2d&s=b","article_id":"2610929720","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212210150a49c9c2d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610929720","pubTimestamp":1770894445,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"摩根士丹利2026 年 2 月 6 日金属市场报告聚焦铜、铝、贵金属等核心品种，核心结论：铜市受全球战略储备与供应约束支撑，虽短期中国需求疲软但回调空间有限；铝、镍、贵金属等品种呈现供需分化，金属市场整体波动加大但长期趋势向好，新需求与供应扰动为核心驱动。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU3063872942.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS ASIA EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0620787316.HKD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY SMALLER COMPANIES \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0828237940.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0106252389.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0082770016.SGD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY SMALLER COMPANIES \"AD\" (SGD) INC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","LU0345780521.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0737861699.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A \" (HKD) ACC","BK1505":"一带一路","BK1198":"黄金","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0049853897.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096374516.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD)","LU0164939612.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN SMALLER CO. \"AC\" ACC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU1808992512.USD":"AB ALL CHINA EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","LU0345780281.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\"  ACC","02600":"中国铝业","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0737861772.HKD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A \" (HKD) ACC","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1504937902.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"DUP\" (EUR) INC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","02899":"紫金矿业","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley: Copper prices are supported by strategic reserves, and metal market trends are still positive","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02899":0.9,"02600":0.9},"content_text":"摩根士丹利2026 年 2 月 6 日金属市场报告聚焦铜、铝、贵金属等核心品种，核心结论：铜市受全球战略储备与供应约束支撑，虽短期中国需求疲软但回调空间有限；铝、镍、贵金属等品种呈现供需分化，金属市场整体波动加大但长期趋势向好，新需求与供应扰动为核心驱动。一、核心焦点：铜市场—— 战略储备 + 供应紧张，短期波动不改长期强势铜市场处于“宏观强、微观弱” 的矛盾格局，战略储备与供应约束构成长期支撑，中国需求疲软与替代效应带来短期波动，整体回调空间有限。核心供需与驱动因素供应端：2026 年铜矿供应增速仅 0.2%（2020 年以来最低），年初已出现 6 万吨产能下修（英美资源下修 6 万吨、自由港下修 2.3 万吨等）；供应扰动集中在下半年（历史规律显示扰动多集中于后半程），厄尔尼诺天气、智利矿山劳资谈判（埃斯康迪达等矿山合约到期）、矿山复产风险（基础设施完整性、产能爬坡节奏）均可能进一步制约供应；需求端：2025 年中国表观铜消费同比增长 4%，2026 年预计放缓至 2%；传统需求疲软，但数据中心、储能（ESS）等新需求支撑消费，电网投资较前五年计划增长 40%；LME 铜铝比价创历史新高（4.3 倍），空调等领域出现铝替代铜的趋势，但技术限制导致替代进程缓慢；战略储备：美国推出120 亿美元 “Project Vault” 关键矿产储备计划，铜纳入美国地质调查局（USGS）关键矿产清单，2025 年以来美国已隐性储备约 73 万吨铜；中国有色金属工业协会建议扩大铜及铜精矿战略储备，虽无官方政策但供应安全关注度升温。价格预测与情景分析基准预测：2026 年 LME 铜价预计从当前 12994 美元 / 吨回落至四季度 11200 美元 / 吨，长期（2035 年）目标价 15000 美元 / 吨；上行情景：仅持仓提升：LME+COMEX 净多头持仓较基准提升 16 个百分点，铜价较基准上涨 7%；仅战略储备：全球新增100 万吨战略储备（相当于 60 天需求），铜价上涨 19%；持仓+ 储备叠加：铜价上涨 25%。二、其他核心金属：铝供需偏紧，镍锌分化明显铝、镍、锌等品种呈现差异化供需格局，铝受产能约束支撑，镍锌受库存与供应增长影响波动加大。铝市场：产能约束下供需偏紧供应端：中国4500 万吨产能上限持续约束，印尼新增产能释放节奏温和，欧洲与美国产能重启面临挑战；需求端：受益于新能源、汽车轻量化需求，2026 年预计呈现供应缺口，价格支撑强劲；价格预测：2026 年 LME 铝均价 3088 美元 / 吨，2027 年 2900 美元 / 吨，当前价格具备一定上行空间。镍市场：库存高企但供应扰动存隐忧供需特点：LME 库存处于高位，但印尼供应政策变动可能带来扰动；新能源汽车电池需求支撑长期消费；价格走势：预计维持区间震荡，近期抛售过后，供应扰动可能带来上行风险。锌市场：库存回升压制价格供应端：矿山供应增长强劲，中国锌出口增加导致LME 库存回升；需求端：传统制造业需求疲软，缺乏新增长引擎；价格压力：短期价格受库存压制，上行空间有限。三、贵金属市场：黄金稳步上涨，白银波动加剧贵金属市场受宏观因素主导，黄金受益于避险需求与央行购金，白银因库存与投机行为波动加大。黄金市场：温和上行趋势核心支撑：央行持续购金、美联储降息预期、地缘风险对冲需求；价格预测：2026 年均价 4600 美元 / 盎司，年末目标 4800 美元 / 盎司，上涨节奏较 2025 年放缓；风险关联：近6 个月黄金与铜相关性达 93%，贵金属波动可能传导至工业金属。白银市场：高波动特征显著波动驱动：伦敦库存因ETF 需求被大量吸收，投机资金进出加剧价格波动；需求分化：太阳能需求增速放缓，2025 年为供应缺口峰值，后续缺口收窄；价格表现：2026 年年初波动剧烈，周度跌幅一度达 38.7%，需警惕投机资金撤离风险。四、市场整体特征与投资启示市场核心特征宏观主导定价：工业金属受战略储备、地缘风险等宏观因素驱动，微观供需影响减弱，回调多为短期买入机会；新需求崛起：数据中心、储能、新能源汽车成为金属需求核心增长极，传统需求（房地产、传统制造业）持续疲软；供应扰动常态化：矿山劳资谈判、天气风险、政策变动等因素频繁扰动供应，成为价格短期催化剂；替代效应显现：高金属价格推动替代材料应用（铜→铝、塑料等），但技术与成本限制导致替代进程缓慢。投资启示铜：长期逢回调布局，关注受益于战略储备与新需求的铜矿企业、铜加工企业；短期警惕中国需求复苏不及预期风险；铝：把握供需缺口带来的机会，聚焦新能源与汽车轻量化相关标的；贵金属：黄金作为核心避险资产长期配置，白银回避单一敞口，可通过贵金属组合分散风险；风险对冲：关注矿山供应扰动、地缘冲突等催化剂，利用期权工具对冲短期波动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2610929720","isCrawlerRequest":true}