千问日活逼近，豆包为什么还敢把红包留到春晚？

字母榜02-12

凭借30亿红包，千问App用户活跃度猛增，数据显示，截至2月7日，千问DAU已经从不足1000万提升至7352万，逼近第一豆包的7871万。两天时间，豆包DAU领先优势就从几千万减小到几百万，说明起码论短时间数据爆发力，红包是真香。10号，豆包才姗姗来迟地宣布了红包计划，但明确了红包将在央视春晚时发放，要知道春晚时间是在2月16日晚上，也就是说，直到春晚前，豆包面对气势汹汹的追兵，仍然选择把红包按...

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envelopes for the Spring Festival Evening?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABO":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"TCEHY":1.86,"09988":1.88,"00700":1.86,"KBAB":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6,"BABW":0.6,"BABA":1.88,"BBYY":0.6},"content_text":"凭借30亿红包，千问App用户活跃度猛增，数据显示，截至2月7日，千问DAU已经从不足1000万提升至7352万，逼近第一豆包的7871万。两天时间，豆包DAU领先优势就从几千万减小到几百万，说明起码论短时间数据爆发力，红包是真香。10号，豆包才姗姗来迟地宣布了红包计划，但明确了红包将在央视春晚时发放，要知道春晚时间是在2月16日晚上，也就是说，直到春晚前，豆包面对气势汹汹的追兵，仍然选择把红包按在工具箱里。广大网友不禁要问了：豆包你为什么不惊慌？今天谜底揭晓了：原来豆包有比红包更能打的“大将”，还不止一个。前几天视频生成模型Seedance 2.0火遍全网，今天字节宣布，Seedance 2.0全面接入豆包即梦等字节系产品。Seedance 2.0，足以抵得上10亿红包。而且豆包的大招，不止Seedance 2.0。2月以来，字节大模型频繁“上新”，在Seedance 2.0之后，字节发布图像生成模型Seedream 5.0，另外，据媒体报道，豆包2.0模型将于春节前发布。这是一款万亿参数的多模态模型，也是字节Seed部门成立以来训练的最大模型。至此，字节今年春节的AI战役全景逐渐浮出水面：模型侧三模齐发，产品侧软硬兼施，营销侧内外兼修，模型、产品与红包齐飞。在这波攻势中，豆包除了要通过撒钱阻击竞争对手，也折射出探索AI硬件新发展路径的迹象——在官宣“上春晚”时，豆包特别指出，“这次送出的所有科技好礼，都接入了豆包大模型。”字节已经很久没有这样“大力出奇迹”了。梁汝波时代的字节，一度把降本增效视为战略重心，各大业务板块经历了一番调整和融合，甚至被边缘化。即便是豆包、红果等新锐产品，也需要自己杀出一条路。但在2026年初，字节出人意料地集结重兵，准备以豆包为核心，模型与红包两翼齐飞，打一场AI to C的立体战役。红包大战是移动互联网时代的打法；到了AI时代，巨头们兜兜转转，似乎还是觉得直接送钱最有效。赶在春节前一两周，腾讯、阿里分别高调推出了AI春节红包。这不禁让人联想起十年前的微信红包“奇袭珍珠港”。红包对于AI APP的拉动作用立竿见影，元宝、千问先后反超豆包，登上各大应用商店的下载量榜首。两大对手攻势之凶猛，促使隔岸观火的豆包宣布加入了战斗。但如前所述，字节这一次发起的不是一场阻击战，而是一场融合了大模型、APP与春节红包的立体战。换言之，字节能否在发红包这件事上压过腾讯、阿里一头，并不特别重要。新模型是否比别人更强、能够给APP带来多大提升，软硬融合的故事能否讲得通，以及新的战略打法是否靠谱，才是字节今年春节的“主线任务”。其实，腾讯、阿里也在打类似的立体战。除了共计30亿元的红包和福利，两大巨头分别公布了新模型、新论文，还尝试把自己的战略长板——社交和电商融入AI战争中。今年的AI春节红包大战，打的不仅仅是红包，更是新BAT近年来颇为少见的全面战争。三大巨头结合自身优势和战略思考，把AI APP战争升级为体系之战、阵营之战，为AI超级入口的新竞争范式做准备。01三模齐发，为红包开路表面上看，豆包刚刚加入红包大战，腾讯、阿里则先行一步，占据了几天的先发优势。但倘若从模型侧观察，豆包并没有落后太多，甚至算得上“抢跑”。首先“跑”出来的，是豆包新一代视频生成模型Seedance 2.0。这款模型2月初在即梦、豆包、小云雀等字节产品中启动小规模内测，专注于制作具有原生音频的连贯多场景序列。测试表明，Seedance 2.0在运镜、分镜、音画同步等方面表现非常出色，显著领先Sora、可灵等同类模型，迅速在全球AI圈子里引发热议。圈内人士不吝赞美。游戏科学CEO、《黑神话：悟空》制作人冯骥甚至表示，Seedance 2.0是“当前地表最强的视频生成模型”，标志着“AIGC 的童年时代结束”。或许是感觉模型侧的火候差不多了，豆包2月10日宣布了春节红包计划。同一天，Seedream 5.0悄然登陆剪映、剪映Capcut、小云雀等平台，启动灰度测试。这是一款图像生成模型，新版本的升级重点是准确性与智能水平提升、更快更具表现力的图像创建、支持联网知识整合等。Capcut在社交媒体上称，Seedream 5.0的性能可与谷歌Nano Banana Pro对标，同时更便宜。两天后，更受关注的Seedance 2.0正式上线。这还没完。豆包2.0将在春节前上线，掐指一算也就是这几天的事情。届时，字节将“三模齐发”，为春节红包保驾护航。模型性能是AI APP的基底；而APP好不好用、能否留人，又是春节红包效能的关键因子。字节明白这一点，腾讯、阿里也绝非不懂。两大巨头在砸下重金发红包的同时，也在尝试提升模型性能，甚至“瞄着豆包打”。2月10日当天，腾讯混元开源面向消费级硬件场景的“极小”模型HY-1.8B-2Bit，等效参数量约为0.3B，仅占用约600MB存储空间，十分有利于端侧部署。阿里则发布了新一代图像生成及编辑模型Qwen-Image-2.0。它在AI Arena文生图评测得到1029分，超过字节的Seedream4.5等模型，仅次于谷歌NanoBananaPro和GPT Image1.5。但两家公司的最新模型都没能引发Seedance 2.0这样的全球热潮。如果说腾讯、阿里依靠红包“抢跑”，在AI APP上先赢一局，那么字节凭借三款新模型，在模型侧扳回一分。截至目前，新BAT并未在春节战役中拉开差距。不过，倘若豆包笃信仅靠新模型，就能兵不血刃、赢下大战，未免过于托大。毕竟，春节红包已经显露出不俗威力，至少在下载量上，让常年被豆包压制的元宝、千问打了个翻身仗。另一方面，春节发红包的效能，也优于不少人此前的推测。以宣称发放30亿春节福利的千问为例，据“见实”测算，千问获取一个下载APP并点单的用户，成本约为50元。作为对比，AI APP在海外市场的下载成本为3~10美元一个，约合人民币20~70元。考虑到点单用户的价值远超单纯下载APP的用户，千问发放春节福利的ROI颇为惊艳。在此情况下，豆包同样需要端出红包这道“传统”的春节大菜：一方面正面阻击元宝、千问，另一方面亲身检验春节红包的真实效能，判断是否符合商业逻辑，从而形成长期竞争策略。02硬件为红包“撑腰”首次参与节红包大战的豆包，透露着不少“小心机”。比如，此前腾讯、百度、阿里等都把撒钱规模作为营销重点。相比之下，豆包没有透露即将发放的现金福利总金额。这样做的好处是，腾讯阿里无法跟牌，从而避免陷入被迫加大投入的零和博弈。除此之外，豆包这场春节红包战役，还把AI硬件拉了进来。在2月10日的公告中，豆包宣称此次送出的所有科技产品，都接入了豆包大模型。从公告披露的奖品清单来看，豆包此次送出的17款科技产品，均来自第三方厂商，比如宇树机器人、大疆无人机、小米智能手表、苏泊尔电饭煲、拓竹3D打印机等，还有奥迪和奔驰两款电动车的使用权。豆包还尝试进一步拉近与“当红炸子鸡”宇树的关系，宣称参与本次活动的宇树机器人使用了豆包大语言模型、语音合成模型和视觉理解能力，可以表现出更拟人的音色与语气、流畅的语音互动。但这些涵盖了多个技术领域的产品，并非由豆包和字节提供底层操作系统，而是搭载厂商自己开发的软件。以此推断，在大多数产品中，豆包扮演的角色更接近一款“预装APP”，用户可以通过语音等方式比较方便地调用，使用场景局限于语音交互等垂直场景。即便如此，豆包依然特别“点名”这些产品，透露出借势春节红包、给自家大模型做一波广告的考量，把to B营销融入to C活动之中。字节此次春节红包营销，一直把to B作为重点之一。它此次与总台春晚的合作方，既有豆包，也有字节旗下的云服务火山引擎。与此同时，字节近期反复宣传豆包大模型的token调用量——日均63万亿、超100家企业累计token调用量超万亿等。与to C的AI APP相比，面向B端客户的大模型和云服务能够贡献更稳定和丰厚的现金流。把搭载豆包大模型的科技产品作为春节奖品，可以让更多人了解到豆包大模型“加持”的威力，从而吸引更多B端客户加入豆包大模型生态。更往前一步，豆包此举也在为字节AI硬件业务探索新的发展范式。字节自行研发的AI硬件已经不少，算上已经发售和即将落地的产品，已有AI耳机、AI录音豆、AI眼镜等多款产品。但从已发售产品来看，这些硬件的市场表现差强人意。以2024年10月发售的Ola Friend耳机为例，截至目前，这款产品在京东自营旗舰店的销量为4万+，14.3万人关注店铺。相比之下，苹果AirPods的年出货量为6000万～7000万只。OpenAI将于今年9月发布的AI耳机，第一年预估出货量为4000万～5000万只。AI硬件表现平平，再度折射出字节缺少硬件基因的难题。字节似乎也意识到了这一顽疾，开始尝试把硬件“外包”出去，自己专注于AI软件。比如，不久前引发热议的“豆包手机”，硬件由二线手机厂商努比亚负责，字节则拿出了深入系统底层的豆包手机助手。这一尝试在众多大厂的“围剿”下遭遇挫折，但字节并没有就此放弃。搭载豆包手机助手的努比亚手机，虽然问题颇多，但依然可以说是字节入局AI硬件以来最令业界轰动的单品。1月底有消息称，字节已经开启豆包手机助手正式版项目，将于今年第二季度发布新款手机，合作方依然是努比亚。对于与第三方厂商合作生产AI硬件，字节正在积极尝试，比如近期飞书与安克合作，发布了一款AI录音豆。借着春晚合作，把“第三方硬件+豆包AI大模型”的模式打出去，可以让字节跳出自研硬件的踯躅，快速形成豆包AI硬件生态圈。03新BAT在新竞争范式下的第一次交锋随着字节加入春节红包战场、发起立体战，新BAT正在共同升级AI to C战争范式。三大巨头在争夺AI超级入口时，上一阶段的重心是拼投放、拼日活。在多重因素作用下，豆包成为赢家，DAU（日活跃用户）断崖式领先另外两家。但时至今日，DAU的含金量正在下滑。新BAT发现，只需要加大投放，或者说撒钱，就能快速把DAU做上去。表现之一是各大应用商店的APP下载量。豆包从去年下半年起稳居各大免费榜榜首，被不少人视为形成了某种“护城河”。但随着春节红包战役的打响，原本被死死压制的元宝、千问下载量直线飙升，一举完成对豆包的反超。QuestMobile在报告中称，此次“AI技术+社交货币+支付闭环”的三重奏，或将引爆中国移动互联网史上最疯狂的用户增长，AI入口争夺战迎来关键转折点。但这一说法或许过于乐观了。这份报告同样表明，用户因红包而来，也会因为红包变小而离开。元宝红包上线5天后，拉新效能已经显著下滑，2月6日的DAU已经降至2000万左右。天使投资人、资深人工智能专家郭涛向《每日经济新闻》指出，纯靠红包驱动的用户，7日留存率普遍低于20%，30日留存率可能跌破5%。红包只能解决“用户为什么用”的问题，却无法回答“为什么持续用”。显而易见，只靠发红包，新BAT谁也无法真正赢得AI入口之战。三家公司选择的破局之道，都是在这场战争中尽可能添加对自己有利的元素，将AI APP与母公司的传统优势“嫁接”。比如，元宝搞了AI社交，打通了微信和QQ的账号体系，甚至一度拿到了在微信内分享红包的“特权”。被微信叫停后，元宝还搞了派内（类似微信群）掉落红包的强社交玩法。派内聊天越活跃，元宝发红包的概率就越高。千问则加入了多个阿里系服务，包括淘宝、闪购、飞猪、大麦、高德、盒马等，“一句话点奶茶”活动一度在社交媒体上刷屏，甚至导致千问APP崩溃。如前所述，豆包今年春节的重心是新模型，而这也是它比较擅长的领域。再加上多款搭载了豆包模型的第三方硬件，豆包的打法同样围绕字节自身长板展开。新BAT的春节红包之战，发红包撒钱是“表”，贯穿模型、APP和营销动作的立体战才是“里”。这场立体战的结果，并不会单单取决于红包本身。相比营销打法，AI APP背后的模型能力、体系能力才是长久的竞争筹码。要想立于不败之地，不仅需要做出先进的大模型，还得找到与母公司业务矩阵相匹配的结合方式。豆包面临的长期挑战，其实是当元宝、千问在体验、产品、技术上逐渐拉近差距后，如何继续保持领先。AI APP能够调用多少内外能力、完成多少任务，能否从chatbot转型为超级agent，将是新BAT下一波AI to C竞争的焦点。AI春节红包大战的实质，是新BAT在新竞争范式下的第一次交锋。这场交锋看似喧闹，实则有条不紊。三家巨头在发放红包之余，都在尝试尽可能放大自身优势，并把这种优势转化为下一个竞争阶段的胜负手。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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