不动产与空间服务：地产股怎么选？空间怎么看？

中金公司02-10

观点聚焦投资建议近期地产股重估拉开序幕，市场对选股和潜在空间的问题开始更为关注。经过对覆盖标的的长期空间测算，我们认为港股内房股整体潜在空间较A股主流标的更为可观，宜作为长期投资重点。理由地产股的估值应该怎么看？大部分时候锚定NAV，牛市思维下可以用市盈率看的更高一些。由于综合考虑了资产质量、负债规模以及当期市场环境等因素，NAV作为“潜在净清算价值”，对短期维度的企业价值刻画最为准确，同时有助于...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610882640?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-10 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2610882640","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"不动产与空间服务：地产股怎么选？空间怎么看？","media":"中金公司","content":"<div>\n<p>观点聚焦投资建议近期地产股重估拉开序幕，市场对选股和潜在空间的问题开始更为关注。经过对覆盖标的的长期空间测算，我们认为港股内房股整体潜在空间较A股主流标的更为可观，宜作为长期投资重点。理由地产股的估值应该怎么看？大部分时候锚定NAV，牛市思维下可以用市盈率看的更高一些。由于综合考虑了资产质量、负债规模以及当期市场环境等因素，NAV作为“潜在净清算价值”，对短期维度的企业价值刻画最为准确，同时有助于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210170212a492da68&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不动产与空间服务：地产股怎么选？空间怎么看？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不动产与空间服务：地产股怎么选？空间怎么看？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-10 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210170212a492da68&s=b><strong>中金公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>观点聚焦投资建议近期地产股重估拉开序幕，市场对选股和潜在空间的问题开始更为关注。经过对覆盖标的的长期空间测算，我们认为港股内房股整体潜在空间较A股主流标的更为可观，宜作为长期投资重点。理由地产股的估值应该怎么看？大部分时候锚定NAV，牛市思维下可以用市盈率看的更高一些。由于综合考虑了资产质量、负债规模以及当期市场环境等因素，NAV作为“潜在净清算价值”，对短期维度的企业价值刻画最为准确，同时有助于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210170212a492da68&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"00817","symbol_name":"中国金茂","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210170212a492da68&s=b","article_id":"2610882640","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210170212a492da68&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610882640","pubTimestamp":1770652800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"观点聚焦投资建议近期地产股重估拉开序幕，市场对选股和潜在空间的问题开始更为关注。理由地产股的估值应该怎么看？地产股空间几何？地产股有几种选择思路？最后，我们也将密切关注中国房地产行业在“新模式”探索方面的进展，看是否有“新物种”的出现。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"00817":"中国金茂","BK1555":"内房股","BK1240":"房地产开发"},"translate_title":"Real estate and space services: how to choose real estate stocks? What do you think of space?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00817":0.9},"content_text":"观点聚焦投资建议近期地产股重估拉开序幕，市场对选股和潜在空间的问题开始更为关注。经过对覆盖标的的长期空间测算，我们认为港股内房股整体潜在空间较A股主流标的更为可观，宜作为长期投资重点。理由地产股的估值应该怎么看？大部分时候锚定NAV，牛市思维下可以用市盈率看的更高一些。由于综合考虑了资产质量、负债规模以及当期市场环境等因素，NAV作为“潜在净清算价值”，对短期维度的企业价值刻画最为准确，同时有助于指征其隐含的合理市净率水平。NAV的局限在于并未用“发展的眼光”看问题，因此如果在牛市环境下，对企业未来增长与盈利修复的预期较强，往往需要结合“远期合理利润与市盈率”的框架来看股价空间的上沿，这一般会构成对NAV的溢价。更多关于两种方法的讨论与具体测算，投资者可进一步参考正文内容。地产股空间几何？数年的长期维度，如果以发展的眼光来考虑个股未来潜在的市值上限，则目前覆盖公司呈现较大的方差。我们认为港股内房股三年维度或多数有1-2 倍的潜在涨幅，主要和这批企业在利润、净资产以及销售规模上仍有可观的修复空间有关，但实现该水平既需要时间，也伴随不确定性。回到2026，考虑NAV对短期估值或仍有一定的“引力”，我们为板块设定的年内潜在上行空间约40%4。地产股有几种选择思路？1）在周期底部配置优质持有型资产，典型如华润置地、新城控股，长期是类红利型资产；2）配置地产开发的结构性成长，侧重标的如绿城中国、中国金茂、建发国际、滨江集团、中国海外宏洋、保利置业等；3）部分民企重回“牌桌”，在超跌估值下实现可观重估。这部分企业可能适合策略上相对更灵活的投资者，对交易能力的要求也更高一些。但我们相信五倍股、十倍股更可能在这个范畴内出现。最后，我们也将密切关注中国房地产行业在“新模式”探索方面的进展，看是否有“新物种”的出现。盈利预测与估值风险年内后续房地产市场企稳进程不及预期；2026 年房企销售与投资强度弱于预期；2026-27房企潜在盈利水平弱于预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2610882640","isCrawlerRequest":true}