食品饮料行业周报：茅台景气领先大众品继续推荐顺周期

招商证券02-09

本周我们继续调研江苏等地渠道，综合两周调研结果来看，行业整体动销双位数下滑符合预期，茅台表现延续强势，禁酒令后部分需求回补、非标缺货带来的需求转移、i 茅台促进大众需求转化带动飞天量增超预期。部分经销商自愿申报3 月首批飞天配额售罄，惠群也暂停3 月前的销售，这也印证了公司渠道的“全面开花”，而并非仅i 茅台火爆，批价近期冲高至1700 元。五粮液动销延续分化，江苏地区大商走货有减少、专卖店反馈...

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年新店型有望加速推广。25Q4公司营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润同比+9.05%/-12.68%/+9.76%，单季度营收略低于预期主要系单店增速较Q3 略有回落、Q3 系旺季且有外卖大战利好影响、扣非增速与扣非净利率符合预期。25Q4 公司特许加盟与团餐业务延续增长，11 月以来公司小笼包新店型陆续在广东、湖北、安徽等地落地，新店型拓展顺利。26 年小笼包新店型推广将系公司核心工作，有望通过以点带面方式实现快速拓展。重庆啤酒：Q4 经营减亏，25 年顺利收官。25Q4 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润同比+5.15%/减亏2.07 亿元/减亏0.50 亿元，测算得25Q4 销量同比+2.87%、吨价同比+2.22%。预计全年乌苏疆内外同比增长，嘉士伯、风花雪月、乐堡等保持良好增长。26 年公司有望延续稳健经营节奏，不断拓展非现饮渠道，且分红有望保持较高水平。千禾味业：线上达播逐步恢复，积极拥抱新渠道。Q4 仍有压力，其中线下受春节错期影响，自然备货保持库存健康，老品库存基本清完。线上自营仍下滑，部分达播恢复。积极布局即时零售、定制、会员店等新兴渠道，当前部分即时零售渠道仍通过经销商覆盖。公司坚持以零添加产品为核心战略方向，26 年净利率希望显著提升，方式主要通过收入复苏提升规模效应、减少传统渠道费用、坚持产品升级、成本采购管控。投资建议：茅台景气领先，大众品继续推荐顺周期。白酒继续推荐春节行情，贵州茅台权重保持足够仓位，推荐山西汾酒、五粮液动销强于行业；弹性关注迎驾贡酒、泸州老窖。大众品四条主线：1）餐饮链修复，关注海天味业（H 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食品饮料行业周报：茅台景气领先 大众品继续推荐顺周期

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食品饮料行业周报：茅台景气领先大众品继续推荐顺周期