叮咚买菜：将自己做成一个“利于并购”的标的

明亮公司02-10

作者：苏打出品：明亮公司“去年8月份前，叮咚应该已经有部分供应链负责人被美团‘挖角’。”伴随美团收购叮咚买菜公告发布，近日，“明亮公司”从多个独立信源处获悉，2025年8月份，已有部分工程外包商接到“来自美团的工程订单”，并被要求完成供应商“入库”流程。这些外包商此前均对接叮咚工厂的一个工程“总包”服务商。“我们猜测，很可能是此前叮咚工厂负责该业务的对接人被挖角到了美团，并且将自己的供应商带了过去...

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\"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823039010.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK1618":"Manus概念股"},"translate_title":"Dingdong Maicai: Make yourself a target \"conducive to mergers and acquisitions\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"MPNGY":1.93,"03690":1.93,"DDL":1.95,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"JD":0.6,"METmain":0.6},"content_text":"作者：苏打出品：明亮公司“去年8月份前，叮咚应该已经有部分供应链负责人被美团‘挖角’。”伴随美团收购叮咚买菜公告发布，近日，“明亮公司”从多个独立信源处获悉，2025年8月份，已有部分工程外包商接到“来自美团的工程订单”，并被要求完成供应商“入库”流程。这些外包商此前均对接叮咚工厂的一个工程“总包”服务商。“我们猜测，很可能是此前叮咚工厂负责该业务的对接人被挖角到了美团，并且将自己的供应商带了过去。一旦‘总包’商被带过去，其手中的小供应商也会接到新的订单。”2月5日，美团（3690.HK）于港交所发布公告，称将以约7.17亿美元的初始对价，完成对叮咚买菜（DDL.US）中国业务100%的收购。收购完成后，叮咚买菜将成为美团的全资附属子公司，并实行合并财务报表。剔除负债，美团实际支付的金额仅约5.6亿美元（折合人民币约40亿左右）。此前有消息称，叮咚有意考虑出售后，多家买方曾先后报价或尽调，包括阿里、美团、京东、德弘资本等。不过，市场观点认为，阿里出手的可能性极低；而出售给投资机构，对于叮咚买菜而言，又或许并非最优解。如此一来，美团和京东便成为两个最大的潜在“优质买家”。最终美团以看似“便宜”的价格入手，背后亦有一些复杂因素。美团：看中叮咚的供应链来支撑小象从早期的美团买菜，到后来的美团优选，再到持续优化的即时配送体系，美团一直在寻找能够彻底打通“最后一公里”生鲜消费的最佳路径。最终，小象作为一匹“黑马”成功跑通。2025年第三季度财报电话会中，美团管理层曾特别强调，计划加速小象超市扩张，目标覆盖所有一二线城市。从这个视角看，美团收购叮咚买菜，确有“强化供应链支撑小象”的考量。叮咚买菜创始人、CEO梁昌霖在内部信中强调，叮咚买菜已构建起扎实的供应链体系，包括生鲜商品源头直采比例超过85%，拥有12家自营工厂与2家自营农场；过去一年，其黑猪肉占猪肉销售比重达37%以上，有机菜、低GI商品、健康零食等品类同比增长均超30%，冬季火锅快手菜增长28%。但小象的供应链体系也并不弱。目前，小象超市已覆盖超过20座城市，拥有近1000个前置仓。尽管其营收数据未在美团财报中单独拆分披露，但根据美团2025年11月28日发布的2025年第三季度财报，包含小象超市、快驴等食杂零售及海外业务在内的新业务板块，季内实现营收280.41亿元，同比增长15.9%。电话会上，美团CEO王兴明确表示，小象超市已位列在线杂货市场销售规模前二，且是该领域增长速度最快的玩家，凸显其在行业中的竞争地位。根据部分第三方口径数据，2024年小象超市的GMV已接近300亿元，这一数据已超越叮咚买菜同期255亿元的GMV规模；2025年，小象超市销售额约为400亿元，其中农产品销售额预计超200亿元。另据市场测算，2025年第三季度小象超市的营收约为168.25亿元（占新业务食杂零售的70%）。若以40多亿元收购叮咚仅仅是为了“补足华东版图”，似乎并不划算。上海作为美团外卖的核心战略高地，其市场规模和用户渗透率均处于全国顶尖水平。如果美团将这笔钱投入小象自身的供应链建设，整体效果或许最终也会与收购相当。且若继续挖角叮咚供应链骨干，小象最终获胜的几率也很大。当然，节奏可能会比较慢。收购显然更快。但美团为何“求快”，其中一个原因或许是京东的参与。“经过近一年的试水，京东在外卖业务上的一个‘短板’是运力，收购叮咚显然能够进行迅速补充运力。”一位业内人士分析，尽管叮咚骑手数量并不是非常多，市场推测可能在2万人左右，但京东可以将其“复用”，比如用骑手来配送单价不太高的非外卖商品。而3C类商品又向来是京东的长板，假以时日，骑手可以配送高单价商品，京东的盈利能力将会顺势得到提升。截至目前，京东旗下七鲜小厨已在北京、上海、广州、深圳以及哈尔滨全国五座城市落地，2026年将继续扩展。此前，其曾宣布启动面向全国的经营合伙人招募计划，首批开放京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大核心区域，目前北上广深等五城均已开店，将逐步向其他省会及经济活跃的二线城市延伸，计划在26年实现对所有二线及以上城市的覆盖。此外，京东还进一步将七鲜小厨的扩张模式从负责整体经营转变为负责供应链以及标准。假如京东将叮咚收入囊中，对于美团而言，外卖和闪购业务又将增添一个风险因素。“美团必须在京东全面发力之前，巩固自己在即时零售领域的优势。收购叮咚，是补齐生鲜供应链短板、迅速扩大市场覆盖的最高效方式。”上述接近美团的人士评论道。京东的潜在威胁，很可能催化了美团收购决策的进程。且横向来看，无论在集团战略层面还是实际业务维度，京东和美团的一个共性，是均需特别重视供应链。从这个角度看，美团的“防守”，可能主要出于先行一步，抵挡京东攻势的考量。而阿里方面，尽管淘宝闪购如火如荼，与美团形成面对面竞争态势，但出手收购叮咚的可能性极低。一方面，阿里旗下有盒马，且目前并没有特别迫切的供应链冲刺需求；另一方面，阿里的估值核心锚点在于AI，并购叮咚并不符合其主流估值叙事。叮咚买菜：做成一个利于并购的标的至于叮咚寻求出售的原因，一方面，每日优鲜已是前车之鉴，生鲜电商的模式由于利润天然稀薄，并不被市场看好；另一方面，与大厂相比，单打独斗势能较弱，持续融资亦面临挑战。此外，“如果美团付出耐心，通过挖角等方式，用小象贴身肉搏，叮咚面临的困难或许更多。”一位分析人士指出，此次美团“静观其变、以低价迅速出手”能够成功，或许也是因为“手中有牌”。但值得注意的是，叮咚可能早就意识到这些困难，并选择了另一条更“聪明”的路径——将自身“修炼”成一个更易被并购的鲜明标的。相较于同样聚焦前置仓模式的朴朴超市（主要扎根华南），以及主打社区店模式的“钱大妈”，叮咚买菜在过去几年里，尤其在供应链上的投入，为其构筑了独特的并购价值壁垒。首先，供应链深度整合。叮咚买菜很早就开始向上游延伸，通过投资合作、订单农业等方式，直连数百个生产基地，在部分核心品类（如蔬菜、活鲜）上建立了较强的源头直采和标准化能力。这不仅能更好地控制成本与品质，也形成了区别于纯平台模式的核心资产。叮咚买菜曾在此前分享中提及，一些平台在选品时会规避韭菜，因为无法规范其中的农残问题，而叮咚愿意花费很长时间，去寻找安全的韭菜产地。梁昌霖在内部信中也提及，这些（供应链）能力是“用8年多时间、一个环节一个环节打磨出来的真功夫”。“目前，农产品的流通中仍存在大量安全细节。结合梁昌霖在内部信中披露的供应链建设成果，假如美团的目标是建立一个类似山姆的‘品牌’心智平台，那么与收购朴朴超市或者钱大妈相比，收购叮咚显然助力更大。”上述分析人士进一步表示。目前，叮咚买菜的自营品牌已覆盖预制菜、米面粮油、肉禽蛋、烘焙等多个核心品类，主打“高性价比”和“品质感”。例如预制菜与快手菜系列的蔡长青、拳击虾、叮咚王牌菜、叮咚大满贯等；米面粮油与豆制品系列中的良芯匠人、有豆志、山涧柴火；肉禽蛋与生鲜系列的黑钻世家、禾花田、宝妈严选，以及烘焙、零食与水饮系列的保萝工坊、叮咚V5等。其次，技术与数据驱动。叮咚在智能订货、库存管理、损耗预测等系统上投入巨大。其自研的“智慧供应链系统”能够根据天气、历史数据、促销活动等因素，对前置仓的进货量进行精准预测，将生鲜损耗率控制在行业较低水平。这套经过实践验证的系统，对任何线下零售巨头而言都极具吸引力。按照叮咚的用户规模、营收与资产，40亿元的价格或许并不高。但目前能够拿出这笔钱进行并购的企业，也确实不多。且从业务协同与整合难度来看，美团或许也是叮咚更优的选择。一方面，双方的流量属性高度契合。美团是本地生活服务入口，用户消费场景与“买菜做饭”高度相关，流量转化路径更短、更自然。叮咚接入美团App，可以瞬间获得数亿级的高活跃度用户曝光，协同效应立竿见影。另一方面，美团拥有业内规模最大、调度最复杂的即时配送网络——美团骑手。叮咚的前置仓网络与美团的配送站点可以快速进行地理网格的优化整合，实现运力复用与效率最大化。从叮咚的角度，在生鲜电商竞争进入“决胜局”的当下，依附于一个流量、配送、资金俱佳的巨头，或许是保证其辛苦构建的供应链与运营能力得以延续和发展的最佳归宿。这场收购一旦落定，或将改写中国生鲜即时零售的版图。美团将获得梦寐以求的纵深供应链能力和核心区域的市场主导权，其“零售+科技”的生态护城河将更加坚固。而对于整个行业而言，巨头整合意味着竞争进入新阶段，效率与盈利能力的比拼将取代单纯的规模扩张，成为新的主旋律。| 发福利！添加下方明亮公司主编微信有惊喜！估值叙事从寒武纪走势看摩尔线程、沐曦股份｜袁记食品和老乡鸡当季公司霸王茶姬｜SKP｜联想｜泡泡玛特｜伯希和｜白犀牛智达｜DeepSeek｜阿里｜腾讯｜字节｜SharkNinja#领先认知新茶饮上市收官｜Paradigm谈早期投资字节｜AI医疗独角兽Abridge访谈｜龚虹嘉谈“杭州六小龙”｜开源人形机器人｜马克·安德森谈AI科技霸权｜九阳资本跷跷板｜阿里与拼多多AI殊途#一手信息ASML｜洛阳钼业｜锅圈｜安琪酵母｜蘑菇街｜活力银发访谈｜雷鸟创新｜熵简科技","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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