特斯拉启动光伏制造基地选址，大摩分析：契合自身太空战略，提升长期估值

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一边与中国光伏企业谈着合作并审厂，一边在美国本土选址打算建厂。马斯克野心勃勃的太空光伏计划，究竟是什么样的？近日，摩根士丹利发布一份研究报告，针对特斯拉宣布规划建设100GW垂直整合光伏制造产能的动作，展开深度测算与分析。大摩认为，这份规划并非特斯拉对地面光伏市场的简单布局，而是锚定地缘政治下的能源供应链安全，以及马斯克太空数据中心的长期战略目标，同时与特斯拉现有的储能业务形成深度协同。研报指出，...

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valuation","themeId":"e41992018570db33a72dfc2bb7a9a60a","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377c954f13581ab004a2b88b86b49272","symbols_score_info":{"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLA":1.98},"content_text":"一边与中国光伏企业谈着合作并审厂，一边在美国本土选址打算建厂。马斯克野心勃勃的太空光伏计划，究竟是什么样的？近日，摩根士丹利发布一份研究报告，针对特斯拉宣布规划建设100GW垂直整合光伏制造产能的动作，展开深度测算与分析。大摩认为，这份规划并非特斯拉对地面光伏市场的简单布局，而是锚定地缘政治下的能源供应链安全，以及马斯克太空数据中心的长期战略目标，同时与特斯拉现有的储能业务形成深度协同。研报指出，这一光伏布局有望为特斯拉能源业务带来250-500亿美元的股权价值增量，折合每股6-14美元，推动能源业务估值提升35%，成为特斯拉多元化发展的又一重要筹码。供应链安全+太空数据中心需求大摩分析，特斯拉此次大手笔布局光伏产能，背后有两大核心逻辑支撑，二者共同指向其长期的能源与太空战略布局，而非短期的市场扩张。其一，地缘政治下的能源供应链自主需求。当前全球光伏制造产能的75%以上集中在中国及东南亚地区，美国本土光伏供应链则呈现明显的结构性失衡：晶锭、硅片、电池等上游核心环节产能不足10GW，仅模块组装环节有65GW产能，而美国公用事业级光伏的年需求达30-40GW。马斯克在特斯拉四季度财报电话会议中曾强调，地缘政治正对关键供应链构成严重威胁，而光伏作为能源业务的核心环节，垂直整合制造能力能让特斯拉摆脱对外部供应链的依赖，同时与自身领先的储能业务形成协同，构建“光伏+储能”的完整能源供应链，避免后续业务遭遇能源相关的瓶颈制约。其二，远超地面市场的太空数据中心需求。摩根士丹利测算，美国地面公用事业级光伏市场的年需求仅30-40GW，特斯拉100GW的光伏产能规划，显然并非为地面市场量身打造。特斯拉这一产能的绝大部分将用于太空太阳能数据中心，仅有小部分补充美国地面公用事业级光伏市场，成为其储能业务的配套。这一布局也与马斯克的太空战略相契合，太阳能供电的太空数据中心，将成为特斯拉在太空领域的重要布局方向，也是其光伏产能的核心应用场景。全球光伏产能过剩，美国供需相对平衡从全球与美国的光伏市场供需格局来看，特斯拉的光伏产能布局选择了一个差异化的市场环境，也让其产能的核心应用指向太空变得更具合理性。当前全球光伏制造产能已超1000GW，而全球年度光伏需求仅约625GW，市场呈现显著的产能过剩状态，传统光伏厂商面临激烈的市场竞争与利润压缩。而美国市场则因关税、反倾销/反补贴调查等政策调整，供需关系相对平衡，成为特斯拉地面光伏产能的重要补充市场，但这一市场的需求规模远无法消化100GW的产能。这一市场格局也意味着，特斯拉若仅聚焦地面光伏市场，将直面全球产能过剩的竞争压力，而将核心产能投向尚未被开发的太空数据中心领域，既能避开红海竞争，又能契合自身的太空战略，形成差异化的竞争优势。财务测算：千亿级资本开支，长期收益与税收抵免成亮点特斯拉100GW光伏产能的建设与落地，将带来巨额的资本开支，但从长期财务表现来看，其营收、利润潜力显著，且美国的制造业税收抵免政策将成为重要的财务利好，大幅降低其运营成本。资本开支：远超现有指引，技术路线决定投入规模此次100GW光伏产能的资本开支，并未纳入特斯拉2026年超200亿美元的资本开支指引，其投入规模取决于特斯拉的技术布局：若实现全垂直整合（从原材料到成品光伏面板的完整供应链），资本开支需300-700亿美元；若仅聚焦太阳能电池制造，资本开支则可降至150-200亿美元。目前特斯拉明确表示，将朝着“从原材料到成品面板”的全垂直整合方向推进，这也意味着其将面临巨额的产能建设投入。产能爬坡与财务表现：初期承压，2030年满产迎盈利拐点摩根士丹利对特斯拉光伏业务的财务表现进行了分阶段测算，产能爬坡将呈现“慢启动、快提升”的特点，2030年满产100GW后迎来盈利拐点，具体节奏如下：2027年产能达10GW，2028年25GW，2029年75GW，2030年实现100GW满产。从营收来看，假设平均售价为0.25美元/瓦（贴合美国公用事业级光伏面板0.25-0.30美元/瓦的市场价），2030年满产后特斯拉光伏业务将实现250亿美元的年化营收，这一规模远超其储能业务2025年近130亿美元的营收。利润端则呈现初期亏损、逐步改善的特征：产能爬坡初期，因规模效应不足，2027年毛利率为-15%、EBIT利润率-35%；随着产能提升，2030年满产后毛利率将升至22.5%，EBIT利润率达15%，年化EBIT达37.5亿美元，成为特斯拉能源业务的重要利润增长点。税收抵免：全整合下年享172.5亿美元利好美国的制造业税收抵免政策成为特斯拉光伏业务的重要财务支撑。研报测算，若特斯拉实现晶圆、电池、模块的全垂直整合，每瓦可获得0.17美元的税收抵免，100GW产能下每年可获得172.5亿美元的税收抵免收益；即便仅做电池制造，也能获得约40亿美元的年税收抵免，同时还能大幅降低资本开支。这一政策红利将显著覆盖特斯拉光伏业务的初期成本，加速其盈利进程。技术方向：摒弃传统晶硅技术，适配太空与传统光伏厂商不同，特斯拉的光伏产能核心服务于太空数据中心，这也决定了其技术路线将与现有市场形成显著差异。摩根士丹利指出，目前全球主流光伏厂商均采用晶体硅技术，而特斯拉的光伏技术大概率将摒弃这一传统路线，研发适配太空环境的光伏技术。太空数据中心对光伏产品的耐极端环境、能量转换效率、轻量化等指标有更高要求，传统晶硅技术难以满足太空应用的需求，特斯拉或将研发全新的光伏技术，以匹配太空数据中心的供电需求，这也将成为特斯拉光伏业务的核心技术壁垒。目前特斯拉尚未公布具体的技术路线，其技术研发与落地进度，将成为影响光伏产能建设与应用的关键因素。估值影响：能源业务价值提升35%从估值层面来看，特斯拉的光伏布局对其能源业务的估值提振效果显著，同时为整体业务的长期发展扫清能源供应链障碍。当前摩根士丹利对特斯拉能源业务的估值为1400亿美元，折合每股40美元，占特斯拉415美元目标价的约10%。而光伏业务满产后，有望为能源业务带来250-500亿美元的股权价值增量，推动能源业务估值提升35%，折合每股6-14美元。单看光伏业务，其对特斯拉整体估值的影响相对有限，但从长期来看，垂直整合的“光伏+储能”供应链，能让特斯拉摆脱能源相关的瓶颈制约，支撑其在汽车、机器人、太空数据中心等业务的长期发展，避免因供应链卡脖子导致业务扩张受阻。摩根士丹利强调，这一投资的核心价值并非短期的估值提升，而是价值创造与增长机会，是特斯拉实现多元化战略的重要布局。特斯拉415美元的目标价由五大业务构成：核心汽车业务45美元/股、网络服务145美元/股、特斯拉出行125美元/股、能源业务40美元/股，光伏业务的落地将让能源业务成为其估值体系中的重要增长极。未来看点目前特斯拉已开始为光伏制造基地选址，摩根士丹利预计，特斯拉将在后续的季度财报电话会议中公布更多产能建设细节；而其光伏技术路线的公布、太空数据中心的进展、光伏与储能业务的协同效应释放，以及税收抵免政策的落地，都将成为后续市场关注的核心节点，也是特斯拉光伏业务价值兑现的关键。特斯拉100GW光伏产能的布局，并非一次简单的光伏市场切入，而是其在地缘政治背景下，围绕能源供应链自主与太空战略的一次长期布局。此次布局虽面临巨额资本开支、技术研发、商业化落地等多重挑战，且短期盈利承压，但长期来看，其不仅能推动特斯拉能源业务的估值扩容与利润增长，更能构建“光伏+储能”的完整能源供应链，为特斯拉的汽车、机器人、太空数据中心等业务提供能源支撑，成为特斯拉多元化发展的重要基石。对于特斯拉而言，光伏业务的价值不仅在于财务层面的营收与利润，更在于其为整体战略扫清了能源供应链的瓶颈；而对于市场而言，特斯拉的入局也让光伏行业的应用场景从地面延伸至太空，为行业发展打开了全新的想象空间。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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