台积电，重大调整

EDA365电子论坛02-11

近年生成式人工智能（Generative AI）与高效运算（HPC）需求持续爆发，推动先进封装一跃成为全球半导体供应链中最关键且最紧张的产能瓶颈。据供应链业内人士透露，台积电南科 AP8 厂区将新增 P2 工厂，两座工厂均以晶圆级系统集成（CoWoS）技术为主；而原本聚焦晶圆级多芯片封装（WMCM）、系统级集成芯片（SoIC）及面板级系统集成封装（CoPoS）的嘉义 AP7 厂区，也将把 SoIC...

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工厂，两座工厂均以晶圆级系统集成（CoWoS）技术为主；而原本聚焦晶圆级多芯片封装（WMCM）、系统级集成芯片（SoIC）及面板级系统集成封装（CoPoS）的嘉义 AP7 厂区，也将把 SoIC 产线调整为 CoWoS 产线。换言之，台积电未来两年将全面提升 CoWoS 产能，这也促使稳居台积电 CoWoS 供应链的中国台湾设备与材料厂商加速扩产，以应对订单满载的市场盛况。供应链指出，除英伟达已成为 CoWoS 最大客户外，谷歌等定制芯片（ASIC）客户也频繁抛出紧急订单争抢产能。在这双重需求的推动下，台积电近期已敲定全面上调 2026—2027 年 CoWoS 产能目标，并重新审视原有的先进封装扩产蓝图。其中，2026 年底 CoWoS 月产能将突破 14 万片，2027 至 2028 年还将释放新产能，英伟达持续预订全年超半数产能。谷歌等 ASIC 芯片客户也通过加价方式扩大下单规模，联发科于 2026 年正式切入 ASIC 赛道后，原定的 2 万片产能已确定无法满足需求，正紧急向台积电追加订单。值得注意的是，台积电在上调 CoWoS 产能的同时，同步调整了 CoWoS 制造规划。以 CoWoS 技术为主的南科 AP8 厂区，加码新增 P2 工厂，将成为承担产能攻坚任务的核心封装基地。此外，原本偏向布局下一代封装技术的嘉义 AP7 厂区规划，也出现重大调整。供应链人士透露，嘉义 AP7 厂区原规划共设 6—8 个建设阶段，其中 P1 阶段为苹果专属的 WMCM 产线，P2、P3 阶段主打 SoIC 技术，面板级封装技术 CoPoS 则暂定部署于 P4 或 P5 阶段。但由于市场对 CoWoS 的需求远超预期，台积电不仅加快 AP7 厂区当前的建设进度，同时将 P2、P3 阶段的产线方向由 SoIC 调整为 CoWoS。另外，原计划于 2028 年提前量产的面板级先进封装技术 CoPoS，量产时间调整为 2029 年，且不排除将 CoPoS 的大部分产能集中在美国亚利桑那厂区。因此，在现有厂区产能恐难满足需求的情况下，市场盛传台积电已将云林列入先进封装新厂区的评估选址。同时，美国亚利桑那州工厂也已确定，在原有两座先进封装工厂的规划基础上，再新增至少两座工厂。台积电大举扩产 CoWoS 的动作，足以看出众多 ASIC 客户的紧急订单已促使其优先解决当前 CoWoS 产能缺口，下一代封装技术的迭代节奏则相应放缓。针对 CoWoS 产能供不应求的现状，供应链人士分析，显然是台积电此前低估了 AI 芯片的增长潜力与市场需求，近期在充分掌握下游客户及其终端客户真实需求后才启动扩产，导致扩产的速度与规模均跟不上市场需求的增长。即便台积电与传统封测代工厂（OSAT）等非台积电阵营企业持续扩产，预计未来三年全球先进封装产能仍将处于供不应求的状态。进一步来看，台积电原本围绕核心客户英伟达的订单需求规划 AI 芯片产能，如今谷歌、元宇宙平台公司（Meta）、亚马逊云科技（AWS）、xAI、博通（Broadcom）、联发科等客户全面入局，且纷纷通过加价或签订长期协议的方式争夺产能，使得台积电的产能规划已纳入所有客户的长期订单规模。值得一提的是，CoWoS 技术涉及中介层、ABF 载板、高带宽内存（HBM）整合、先进测试及良率提升等多个环节，从工厂建设、设备交付到最终量产，通常需要 18 个月以上的周期，这导致供给端的产能释放永远滞后于需求端的增长。供应链直言，AI 市场需求持续强劲，从台积电大幅调整技术路线图的动作中可见一斑。随着台积电全面上调 CoWoS 产能，相关设备与材料供应链也被迫同步调整布局。近年来稳居 CoWoS 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