AI红包的狂欢：主角应该是AI，而不是红包

蓝鲸财经02-11

作者|略大参考高进春节过后，互联网或许会迎来一次不小的“AI卸载潮”。毕竟很多用户对AI的拥抱并非源于其强大的技术，或者对生产力的加持，而是一份总额超过40亿的红包。春节红包在国内互联网已并不新鲜，但相比此前的红包大战，这次的红包发得似乎有些“勉强”。此前，无论是微信支付、支付宝、电商，红包都与其核心场景有非常高的关联度，比如微信支付存在大量的转账场景，电商也有用红包购物，和社交裂变的玩法。但...

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高进春节过后，互联网或许会迎来一次不小的“AI卸载潮”。毕竟很多用户对AI的拥抱并非源于其强大的技术，或者对生产力的加持，而是一份总额超过40亿的红包。春节红包在国内互联网已并不新鲜，但相比此前的红包大战，这次的红包发得似乎有些“勉强”。此前，无论是微信支付、支付宝、电商，红包都与其核心场景有非常高的关联度，比如微信支付存在大量的转账场景，电商也有用红包购物，和社交裂变的玩法。但AI助手完全不是这类产品，它的核心功能从来都是提供效率，帮用户干活。另一方面，电商、电子支付都已经是成熟且真实的需求，在这类产品上重金营销，虽然花费昂贵，但回报是具备确定性的。而AI超级助手的模式还非常年轻，包括谷歌、微软、百度在内的诸多大厂，都采用的是将AI助手内嵌于成熟应用的模式，用户是否需要这种独立的超级入口，还需要相当长的时间去验证。在一个尚未被验证的模式上投入重金，当红包的短期热度散去，结果是充满不确定性的。不过可以确定的是，无论AI入口未来的形态如何，它都不会是靠红包砸出来的，而是从用户的需求里长出来的。01 AI这个红包，发得有点勉强站在2014年的视角，微信支付与支付宝之间的差距，如鸿沟一般。彼时，在第三方移动支付市场，支付宝的份额超过80%，移动支付是一个马太效应非常强的领域，用户少就意味着商家不支持这种支付方式，商家不支持，用户就会更少，陷入死循环。但一场春节红包雨，造就了中国互联网历史上可以排进前二的增长神话。2014年，微信在春节前上线了拼手气红包功能，短短一周里发出了4000万个红包。第二年，微信联合央视推出了摇一摇红包，5亿现金红包，让微信支付在三个月内绑定两亿张银行卡。——更重要的是，其中大部分用户都留存了下来，直到今天。有用户付款，就有商家收款，这使得微信支付在线下的地推效率也大大提升，最终成为和支付宝分庭抗礼的支付巨头。自此，春节成为了互联网巨头的香饽饽，每当有大厂想获得一个爆发性的增长时，他们就会在春节期间推出红包功能。不过此后的春节红包，再鲜有能复刻微信的神话。其中一些收获了有限的成功，还有一些效果乏善可陈。因为微信春节红包的成功，不光在于春节的流量和玩法，还在于微信红包本身就是一个模式成立的产品。微信红包与微信生态的契合度极高，用户本身就有大量的给熟人发红包的需求。而微信绑定了用户大部分的熟人社交网络，是一种自然而然的需求。不难想象，即便没有春晚红包，微信红包和微信支付功能的崛起几乎也只是时间问题，春晚的营销只是加快了这一进程。新奇的玩法带来的热度终究会褪去，只有真正好用的功能，才能留住用户。而2026年无比风靡的AI助手，与红包之间的契合度似乎并没有那么高。AI助手目前最主要的功能是ChatBot，通过对话帮用户解决各种问题，未来的想象空间则是超级入口，负责用户大量的信息获取、任务执行。但无论如何，这都和社交、红包相距甚远。这样的红包带来的流量，真的能留得住吗？用AI助手给大家发个红包，虽然在一定程度上满足了娱乐需求，制造了新鲜感。但热闹之后，红包往往被迅速遗忘，很难沉淀为持续价值。相比之下，同样是网红产品的AI助手，近期全球爆火的OpenClaw，它的出圈显得更为“踏实”。因为它是靠功能本身爆火的，它原本只是一个开发者的个人实验，但由于功能强大，可以在用户已有的各类聊天软件中担任助理，在上线短短的15天内迅速出圈，在GitHub的星标早已超过10万。这种“出圈”的力量是更加持久的，因为不是为了抢红包，而是产品真的能把事干成，真的能帮用户省下时间。而对靠红包增长的AI助手来说，大多数增量用户能否留下30天，都还是问题。有分析认为，多家AI工具轰轰烈烈的红包战，其用户留存表现并不乐观。根源正是场景、与需求的错位，AI红包并没有真正帮用户“解决任务”，创造实际价值。02 AI超级入口，是真实需求吗？在招聘软件上，各种岗位的要求五花八门，但很多岗位都有着同一个需求：英语好。这是一个无可争议的关键技能，医生查阅行业前沿论文要用英语、程序员查找开源资料要用英语、消费品牌想开拓全球市场也要用英语。不过虽然英语如此重要，但行业另一个现象是，英语专业却长期就业率和就业满意度位于较低的水平。原因无它：英语很好，但它只是工具，而工具本身是不创造价值的。如何使用这一工具是创造价值的关键。这就像扑克牌中的“癞子”，和其他牌组合起来是王炸，但不能单出。AI也是工具，它的应用方式，不该和英语有什么不同。早在AI风口刚刚涌现之时，李彦宏就多次强调，AI本身不创造价值，AI应用才创造价值。过去三年，全球最成功的AI产品，其选择的路径几乎都是一致的：把AI技术内嵌入成熟的应用，而不是为了AI重新造一个新入口。以谷歌和百度为例，两家虽然也有独立的Gemini APP和文心APP，但他们的AI技术不局限于一个独立的APP，而是赋能在旗下各原有产品矩阵上。比如谷歌把Gemini内嵌入Chrome、安卓、搜索、Gmail等产品，百度亦将文心大模型广泛应用于百度搜索、地图、文库、网盘等全系产品。尤其在搜索场景，百度将文心助手内嵌入百度APP，在搜索多年积累的丰富场景和对用户需求的精准洞察下，为用户提供AI服务。AI并未取代入口，而是让入口“升维”。在刚刚发布的谷歌四季度财报里，谷歌搜索这一曾被华尔街广泛认为会被AI颠覆的“夕阳产业”，反倒增长超过了15%。百度这边，按照QuestMobile的报告，百度连续三个季度登顶AI搜索月活榜的第一名，月活用户规模达到3.82亿。用户用脚投票，证明把AI融入已是天然入口的搜索框，带来的效果要比所谓的再造AI超级入口更好。类似的案例并不少见。美图秀秀没有谷歌和百度那样强大的AI技术，但通过多模态能力与传统业务的融合，他们的产品焕发了第二春，广受欢迎。消费者的青睐转化为商业回报，让这家公司摆脱了亏损，在2025年的净利润增长了超过60%。快手没有元宝、豆包这样强大的超级AI入口，但他们通过把可灵内嵌进入快手创作者的生态，在很短的时间内突破了1200万的月活用户数，并迅速创造了超过1亿元的月收入。如果这些APP的案例还不够直观，那OpenAI和微软可谓另一组参照：两家的AI服务都是基于GPT模型，只是OpenAI是作为独立的超级入口或者说超级产品，微软则是把GPT模型内嵌入原有的云服务和办公软件体系。但双方获得的商业回报却是天壤之别。其中，OpenAI常年亏损，盈亏平衡的时间点已经一竿子支到了2029年。而微软却靠着AI的加持，四季度获得了60%的利润增速。虽然巨大的资本开支仍让投资者感到担忧，但其AI融入产品、融入场景的商业模式却是已经被验证的。微软和OpenAI的巨大差别，在于微软本身有一套成熟的应用模式，它能够依托原有经验，为用户解决一些问题，微软拥有长期建立起涵盖企业服务、云、游戏等在内的自有生态，这为其嵌入AI提供了海量的应用场景。而OpenAI虽然坐拥强大的GPT模型，但应用场景却远没有微软丰富，只能作为一个ChatBot。——课堂上最稀缺的有时候不是老师的好答案（技术能力），而是学生的好问题（需求）。AI技术固然宝贵，但更宝贵的，是一套和用户需求磨合多年的成熟应用场景，以及背后丰富的应用生态。段永平曾表达过对谷歌在AI时代的看好，认为谷歌会成为最后的赢家，他的理由不是Gemini强大的技术，而是谷歌拥有全栈的生态，这种生态赋予了Gemini潜在的解决问题的能力：比如发邮件，可以依靠谷歌自家的Gmail，查饭馆，可以依靠地图生态。最后，安卓系统又为Gemini提供了一个底座，让它获得系统级的权限，谷歌的TPU为自家模型降低推理成本，又向上赋能各类应用。在国内，百度、阿里这样拥有庞大生态的企业，看起来也符合这种“赢家标准”。比如阿里巴巴同时拥有电商、即时零售、OTA三大消费场景，通过一个AI对话框，用户就可以同时解决买衣服、点餐、订票等大类的消费需求。百度也拥有一套强大的生态，在产品生态方面，百度搜索、地图、文库等已成势，在AI大模型时代，百度快速将这些产品接入AI能力，后来这些产品也全面接入MCP。百度文心助手的生态优势也很显著，它不仅接入了百度地图、健康等内部生态服务，还与京东、美团、携程、盈米基金等上百家头部合作伙伴MCP服务，覆盖了用户的大部分需求，如订票、出行、购物、健康等，形成了“搜索即服务”的闭环。当然更强大的还是全栈生态，百度是当前在芯云模体的全栈布局，为其AI应用蓝图提供坚实的支撑。相比之下，当下行业里追逐的AI超级入口的存在，本身有点“本末倒置”了。它们不是建立在成熟的应用和生态里，而是平地为AI起了一座高楼，试图通过技术反向寻找需求，犹如查理芒格所说的“拿着锤子找钉子”。这样的AI超级入口的存在，比起是用户的需求，看起来更像是厂商的需求。03 用户需要的AI，才是好AI对一个厨子来说，炒一道菜的理由永远应该是“客人喜欢吃这道菜”，而不是“我喜欢炒这道菜”。这就是“消费者导向”，它是包括苹果在内，许多公司的立足之本。在全球新能源汽车市场爆炸式增长的几年里，全世界都在期待苹果的汽车发布，但苹果最终还是在大量投入后选择放弃造车。原因很简单——特斯拉、比亚迪、理想的电动车已经非常优秀了，苹果的入场，能够给消费者带来什么样的价值呢？如果不能创造足够的差异化价值，那苹果也可能会陷入价格战的泥潭，最终带来糟糕的商业回报。但在AI这场浪潮里，坚持这种原则，却显得无比艰难。AI的想象空间实在诱惑太大，很多大厂急迫地推出各种功能，试图获得一张新时代的船票。这个过程里，他们有时候思考的不是能够为用户解决什么问题，而是自己能在AI的世界里获得什么样的地位。于是他们疯狂地推出各种各样的AI功能，这些功能也许能够回答很宏大的问题，但却很难回答用户要它到底有什么用。来自AI助手的红包雨，只是这种狂热的一个缩影，在漫天的红包雨下，已有用户开始怀念起百度、谷歌简洁的搜索体验。情绪怀旧之下，更深层次的，是用户对简单真实可靠的信息获取方式的价值回归诉求。从这个角度看，百度AI搜索、谷歌AI模式、Copilot模式这样相对简洁的，但能有效解决问题的AI入口，更契合用户的这种诉求。一方面，给用户带来无痛转场的省心体验，另一方面，这些厂商的大模型底座能力足够强，以百度为例，文心大模型一直聚焦持续降低幻觉率，提高回答准确率，这意味着用户在让AI帮忙干活时，得到的是更好、更准确的结果。事实上，过去三年，真正成功的AI产品，从来不是AI助手这样多么宏大的概念，而是真正能干活的东西：Google NotebookLM只是一个简单的“资料阅览器”，别说成为超级入口，就连除此之外的第二个功能都没有，但却在全球爆火，因为它能让用户浏览、理解一份资料的速度快一些。文心助手不是什么“超级入口”，只是绑定在百度APP生态内的主力，但在QuestMobile上半年的统计里，百度的AI插件用户数却是第一，因为它能在用户获取信息时提供效率。Manus的主要产品也只是浏览器中的插件，最终却拥有数百万日活用户，目前已传出将被巨头高价收购，有机会得到商业上的巨大回报。这些AI工具的成功，都不是靠铺天盖地的营销，或者庞杂的全套功能，而是切实踩中了用户的痛点，能解决一些问题。而只有真正为用户解决问题的产品，才能在商业层面获得成功。即便未来真的有一个AI的超级入口，它也一定会是用户的需求推动的，而不是大厂的野心和红包推动的。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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