狂砸6500亿美元押注AI，科技巨头们的“烧钱叙事”能走多远？

国际金融报02-11

当下，美股第四季度财报季仍在进行，以谷歌、微软等为代表的科技巨头们已相继披露业绩。尽管营收与利润普遍录得增长，AI相关业务也实现增长，但市场关注点却集体转向了这些巨头们为2026年制定的、规模远超预期的“天量”资本支出预算。根据谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta披露的最新资本支出计划，四家公司均释放了深化AI军备竞赛的信号，在2026年的开支总额合计约6500亿美元(约合4.58万亿元人民币)。《...

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go?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.87,"NVDA":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"AMZN":1.92,"MSFW":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"GOOGL":1.95,"TSLA":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFT":1.94,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFL":0.6},"content_text":"当下，美股第四季度财报季仍在进行，以谷歌、微软等为代表的科技巨头们已相继披露业绩。尽管营收与利润普遍录得增长，AI相关业务也实现增长，但市场关注点却集体转向了这些巨头们为2026年制定的、规模远超预期的“天量”资本支出预算。根据谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta披露的最新资本支出计划，四家公司均释放了深化AI军备竞赛的信号，在2026年的开支总额合计约6500亿美元(约合4.58万亿元人民币)。《华尔街日报》指出，这一数额的资本开支接近日本2026年全年的支出预算，并超过德国(约合6230亿美元)和墨西哥(约合5095亿美元)的财政预算。在上述科技巨头们看来，AI需求依然强劲，随资本开支“水涨船高”的或是数万亿美元的潜在市场回报。然而，如此激进的“烧钱”计划显然令华尔街投资者感到不安，市场对于当前人工智能叙事的态度正趋于保守与审慎。重押云业务与AI基础设施在上述四家巨头中，亚马逊成为本轮AI军备竞赛最激进的公司，预计2026年的资本支出将达2000亿美元，远超分析师1447亿美元的预估，较2025年约1310亿美元的资本支出，同比增长超五成；谷歌母公司Alphabet紧随其后，预计2026年资本支出将在1750亿美元至1850亿美元之间；Meta则表示，资本支出可能比去年翻一番，达到1150亿美元至1350亿美元。值得一提的是，微软的财年计算方式与前述公司略有不同，其完整财年通常截止于每年6月。最新财报显示，截至去年12月的第二财季，其资本支出达375亿美元，同比增长66%，不仅创下历史新高，也高于市场普遍预期的362亿美元。分析师预测，在截至今年6月的整个财年中，微软的资本支出或将达到1050亿美元。秦铭蔚制图整体而言，各公司对2026年的资本支出预估已接近甚至超过其过去三年的总和，而四家公司资本支出总规模预计将达到6500亿美元。从四家巨头的规划蓝图来看，其投资逻辑基本一致，AI需求依旧强劲，但当前产能瓶颈已制约增长，仍需持续加大投资力度。与此同时，巨头间的AI竞赛焦点已从表层业务延伸至底层算力等硬实力的角逐——巨额资本将主要投向云服务以及涵盖AI芯片、数据中心、电力保障在内的AI基础设施领域。具体来看，Meta力押算力基础设施建设。Meta创始人兼CEO马克.扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)表示：“我们在2025年取得了强劲的业务表现。2026年，我期待推进面向全球用户的个人超级智能。”为实现这一目标，该公司计划相关资金将重点投向支持AI模型的超大规模数据中心建设，并同步启动“Meta Compute”计划以确保长期稳定的电力供应保障。Alphabet计划在算力与云服务领域同步发力。公司首席执行官桑达尔.皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)在最新电话会上指出，“当前算力供应依然紧张”，为支持GOOGle DeepMind的前沿模型研发，同时应对云客户快速增长的算力需求，公司将持续投入。在解释资本支出结构时，Alphabet高级副总裁兼首席财务官阿纳特.阿什肯纳齐(Anat Ashkenazi)进一步说明，2026年的支出分配将与2025年类似，约60%的投资用于服务器，其余40%则投入数据中心、网络设备等长周期资产。亚马逊则预计将资本支出主要投入亚马逊云(AWS业务)，以应对客户“极其强劲”的需求。亚马逊总裁兼首席执行官安迪.贾西(Andy Jassy)在财报电话会议上表示，在核心业务和AI工作负载解决方案上，客户普遍青睐于选择AWS，“我们拥有快速部署计算资源并实现其价值的强大能力，能够精准把握AWS业务的需求变化，并将这些计算资源高效转化为可观的回报”。尽管微软并未披露接下来的资本开支指引，但其布局重点仍可在最新财报电话会上初见端倪。当被问及“资本支出增长快于预期，但Azure增速却略有放缓”时，其首席财务官艾米.胡德(Amy Hood)回应称，若将所有GPU资源全部调配至Azure，其增速可轻松超过40%。在她看来，微软同样面临算力供需持续紧张的局面——新增的算力不仅需满足Azure外部客户的需求，还必须优先支持Microsoft365Copilot、GitHub Copilot等内部AI产品的使用需求。市场担忧情绪弥漫从上述公司的规划不难看出，除了Meta，微软、亚马逊及Alphabet三家巨额资本开支计划均建立在云业务坚实的业绩基础之上。事实上，云业务正成为当前AI领域中投资回报率最高的业务场景之一。本轮财报季中，最受市场关注的亮点之一，正是三大云业务巨头表现超出市场预期。聚焦2025年第四季度，亚马逊AWS销售额达到356亿美元，同比增长24%，这一增速不仅超市场预期，更创下自2022年底以来的新高；微软云业务整体营收同比增长26%至515亿美元，首次突破单季500亿美元大关，其中作为核心引擎的Azure及其他云服务营收同比增长39%；同期，Alphabet云业务收入为177亿美元，同比增长48%，增速明显高于云计算行业平均水平，也明显快于竞争对手微软Azure和亚马逊AWS同期表现。与此同时，在AI解决方案及核心云平台需求激增的推动下，三大巨头均手握规模空前的订单。截至2025年末，谷歌云未履行订单金额达2400亿美元，同比增长超一倍；AWS积压订单达2440亿美元，同比激增40%；微软商业剩余履约义务飙升至6250亿美元，同比增长110%，其中有45%业务量来自单一客户OpenAI。不过，如此巨量的订单既是未来增长的有力支撑，也可能在兑现过程中成为沉重的成本压力——巨头们需要持续投入巨额支出去兑现这一业绩。这一现状也引发了市场及分析师对相关企业未来盈利空间与现金流状况的普遍担忧。“烧钱最猛”的亚马逊在过去12个月里，自由现金流由2024年年底的382亿美元骤降至112亿美元。摩根士丹利的分析师预测，其2026年的自由现金流将为-170亿美元；美国银行则认为，其亏损将达到280亿美元。亚马逊首席财务官布莱恩.奥尔萨夫斯基(Brian Olsavsky)也在财报会上承认，大规模的AI投资及其相关折旧将对亚马逊利润率构成压力，但公司将通过提升运营效率与降低成本等措施来抵消这一影响。Alphabet的情况同样难言理想。摩根士丹利指出，巨额资本支出已开始挤压公司盈利空间。据其测算，2026与2027财年公司每股自由现金流将分别骤降约58%和80%。记者也注意到，在最新财报电话会议中，至少三位分析师在提问中明确提及巨额资本开支背景下，公司未来折旧率与利润率表现等问题。曾位居全球市值榜首的微软，其激进的资本开支计划则引发了市场最强烈的质疑。财报发布次日(当地时间1月29日)，微软股价单日暴跌10%，创下自2020年3月以来的最大单日跌幅。瑞银分析师团队的一份报告，对微软大规模提前锁定AI算力的策略提出质疑。其认为，Microsoft365的营收增速并未因Copilot的推出而显著提升，多项市场调研也未显示其使用量出现强劲增长，“而当前大模型市场竞争激烈，资本投入巨大，微软需要“证明”这些巨额投资物有所值”。GW&K投资管理公司的投资组合经理Aaron Clark则于近期指出：“微软及其同行增加的支出，将导致这些领先的科技公司拥有比以往更多的实体基础设施，承担更高的运营成本，产生更少的自由现金流，并发行比以往更多的债务。”他强调，这种高支出水平已开始让投资者质疑，在当下商业模式已不如以往那么“轻资产”的情况下，大型科技公司是否还能维持过去那样的高估值。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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