马斯克画饼太空互联网，分析师预测特斯拉将被合并消亡

鞭牛士02-09

2月9日消息，据NBC报道，埃隆·马斯克上周将SpaceX 和 xAI 合并，创建了全球规模最大、最有价值的私营公司之一。分析人士表示，该公司在走向公开市场的过程中，既蕴含着潜在的增长潜力，也存在着财务风险。这两家公司截然不同。SpaceX成立于2002年，现已成为首屈一指的非政府太空探索机构。马斯克的xAI公司成立不到三年，专注于人工智能，最近也涉足社交媒体领域。去年三月，xAI收购了社交媒体...

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and die out","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLZ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.88,"TSLS":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"UFO":0.6},"content_text":"2月9日消息，据NBC报道，埃隆·马斯克上周将SpaceX 和 xAI 合并，创建了全球规模最大、最有价值的私营公司之一。分析人士表示，该公司在走向公开市场的过程中，既蕴含着潜在的增长潜力，也存在着财务风险。这两家公司截然不同。SpaceX成立于2002年，现已成为首屈一指的非政府太空探索机构。马斯克的xAI公司成立不到三年，专注于人工智能，最近也涉足社交媒体领域。去年三月，xAI收购了社交媒体平台X ，这也是马斯克旗下的另一项公司合并计划。分析师告诉 NBC 新闻，双方合并都有利可图：SpaceX 可以在 IPO 前获得优势，而 xAI 可以扩展其人工智能基础设施，同时获得急需的“资金注入”，正如一位专家所说。马斯克在周一的声明中表示，此次合并将打造一家拥有“人工智能、火箭、太空互联网、直接面向移动设备的通信以及全球领先的实时信息和言论自由平台”的公司。马斯克补充说，他希望通过“发射一个由一百万颗卫星组成的星座，作为轨道数据中心运行”，在太空中创建人工智能数据中心。马斯克正在大力推进这一理念。据 NBC 新闻查阅的一份提交给联邦通信委员会的文件显示，在合并公告发布前几天，SpaceX 向监管机构介绍了卫星计划。“将 SpaceX（负责发射和设计承载计算的卫星）与 xAI（拥有运营这些计算集群的经验，并且拥有 Grok 模型，该模型大概会在上面运行）结合起来，这背后有着工业逻辑，” MoffettNathanson 专注于数字基础设施的高级研究分析师 Nick Del Deo 表示。德尔·迪奥在电话采访中表示，太空数据中心的概念是“可以想象的”，但他预测“要过很多年才能取得任何实质性进展”。他说：“要让它成功，很多事情都需要顺利进行，更不用说要达到与陆地替代方案相比具有实际意义的规模了。”不出所料，马斯克设想的时间表更短。他在声明中估计，只需两到三年，“在太空进行人工智能计算的成本最低的方式将是这样的”。（众所周知，马斯克经常设定雄心勃勃的时间表，但最终都未能实现。）Zacks投资研究公司的股票策略师安德鲁·罗科告诉NBC新闻，他认为此次收购是有意义的。他在电话采访中表示：“这将产生大量的协同效应，对这两家公司来说都会更加顺利。”“SpaceX 拥有巨大的有效载荷能力，并且基本上垄断了太空领域——我认为这将帮助马斯克的其他公司在人工智能数据中心竞赛和人工智能训练竞赛中迎头赶上，”罗科说。除了太空数据中心的未来愿景之外，还有近期财务方面的考量。PitchBook 高级研究分析师 Ali Javaheri 表示，随着 SpaceX 准备在今年晚些时候上市，此次合并可能是马斯克在人工智能竞赛中“战略性地”定位 SpaceX，以与他的两个最大竞争对手 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的预期 IPO 展开竞争的一种方式。德尔·迪奥表示，对此次合并的一种“愤世嫉俗的看法”是，SpaceX 需要在首次公开募股 (IPO) 之前有一个“吸引人的故事”，“以激发投资者对该股票的热情，并推动达到他们所希望的那种估值”。彭博社报道称，合并后的公司估值将达到1.25万亿美元，其中大部分估值——1万亿美元——来自SpaceX。不过，xAI的估值仍然推高了SpaceX上市前的整体估值。Wedbush Securities 全球科技研究主管 Dan Ives 周二在一份联合撰写的报告中表示，这将标志着“马斯克旗下企业迄今为止规模最大的合作”。Forrester 分析师在周二的一份报告中写道，在潜在的 IPO 之前“协调”合并以及向 FCC 提交文件是“典型的马斯克式估值膨胀”。分析师写道：“SpaceX正在包装一个关于从太空实现超大规模、低成本人工智能计算的故事——这种故事能够扩大潜在市场规模，提升增长倍数，并将星舰重新定义为结构性的成本护城河。这些都是IPO前提升公司形象的经典要素，也是马斯克时代市场信号传递的常见模式。它将雄心壮志描绘成必然，诱使投资者将尚未通过工程验证的未来纳入考量。”而罗科则表示，他认为这很可能成为“历史上最受瞩目的IPO之一”。“我想不出还有什么比这更受追捧的了——每个人都想分一杯羹，”他说。“我认为它的定价会高于大多数人的预期，而大多数人已经预期它将成为史上规模最大的IPO。”特斯拉会是下一个吗？SpaceX 和 xAI 的强强联合引发了人们对马斯克的电动汽车公司特斯拉将面临何种影响的猜测。特斯拉在最新财报中宣布，将投资约20亿美元收购xAI的优先股。特斯拉还补充说，两家公司已签署“框架协议”，以评估“潜在的人工智能合作”。韦德布什表示，“随着时间的推移，特斯拉最终以某种形式并入 SpaceX/xAI 的可能性越来越大。”“马斯克希望拥有和控制更多的人工智能生态系统，而最终的终极目标可能是在未来 12 到 18 个月内以某种形式将 SpaceX 和特斯拉合并，从而在这两家颠覆性科技巨头之间建立联系，引领人工智能革命。”韦德布什继续说道。贾瓦赫里也表达了同样的看法，他说他认为此举最终会导致“特斯拉也倒闭”。罗科表示，从长远来看，他认为这将产生“良好的协同效应”，但“很难推行”。他说，如果他是SpaceX的私人投资者，他“只希望它自行上市——他们基本上处于垄断地位”。Deepwater Asset Management 的管理合伙人、联合创始人兼投资组合研究主管 Gene Munster 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